CLIC NCAA Tournament Draft
1st Annual Edition: John v. Dave v. Everyone else
John Iezzi: Welcome to the first annual CLIC NCAA Tournament Draft! David and I are upping the stakes this year beyond just the typical bracket challenge we compete in amongst ourselves and our group of friends. What we’ve done below is transcribe a conversation we had Monday night. We spent Sunday evening and whenever we had time Monday leading into this conversation researching and ranking our top teams in this year’s NCAA field. We then sat down and drafted!
The concept for our competition is simple:
Flip a coin. Winner of the coin toss gets to choose Pick #1 or Picks #2 & #3. Alternate picks from there.
Draft 8 teams each.
Add up the total number of wins for the teams we select at the end of the tournament.
Loser pays the winner $500.
In addition! When we tweet out this article on Thursday morning, anyone that likes the tweet will be eligible to win $500 themselves. If neither one of us drafted the eventual national champion - we’ll select one random person that favorited our tweet and send them the $500.
We had fun with this.
Draft Day
Iezzi: I haven’t won any sort of bracket challenge against David since we became friends. But Virginia Tech had also never won an ACC Tournament Championship before. This is the year!
David Lurie: Is that actually true? I feel like my bracket selection prowess is being significantly overvalued! And if it is true, it’s all for naught if I go down here. The stakes are higher than ever.. Not just the money on the line; we are actually about to transcribe this whole ordeal for the world (or at least our 10 followers) to see! What have we done, John?
Iezzi: You know one way to get people to click on a link for something you wrote? Say they could win some money by just rooting for us to be idiots. With how up in the air the tournament seems to be this year? Hell, we may have needed to draft 32 teams to not leave off the eventual winner.
*David wins the coin toss and elects to pick 2nd and 3rd*
Iezzi: Damnit. I was really hoping you’d take the first pick.
Pick #1 (Iezzi): Kansas Jayhawks
Lurie: I knew you’d go with Kansas! This is all going according to plan!!
Iezzi: This is as much about the region they’re in as anything. This is the team I feel best about making the Final Four. We know some metrics that matter in March.
Top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom? Check.
8 of the last 9 champions ranked in the top 7 in offensive or defensive efficiency. Kansas has the #6 offense. Check.
16 of the last 19 champions ranked in the top 6 overall in KenPom entering the tournament. Kansas is #6. Check.
Have a guard that’s going to be drafted in the NBA lottery? Check.
Kansas is experienced. I love banking on experienced teams. I think it matters. Ochai Agbaji, David McCormack, Mitch Lightfoot and Remy Martin are all seniors. Christian Braun shoots it at a 38% clip from three. Jalen Wilson has been efficient and phenomenal the second half of the year. Agbaji is a National Player of the Year candidate. They won their conference regular season and tournament in a really good league. Martin missed the majority of the year but he integrated seamlessly back into the team on their conference tournament run, and they didn't miss a beat.
This is also clearly the region with the weakest 2-3-4 seed lineup. Gun to my head, I like Kansas to make the Final Four over any other team in the tournament. And obviously I think they have the profile to win the title too. Lock in at least 4 points for me right off the jump. I’ll take my chances with this guy setting the tone for my draft.
Lurie: I had them at number 1 on my board as well, but I wanted you to take them. You know what other box Kansas checks? Being a program that has lost NCAA tournament games as the higher seed to the following seeds since their 2008 championship: 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11. I agree that they check all the championship-level boxes, but they also have a recent history of being upset in March. As for my picks..
Pick #2 (Lurie): Arizona Wildcats
Lurie: I fell in love with this Arizona team during the Pac-12 championship game against UCLA. Down 12 in the second half, they just calmly kept executing. Backdoor cut after backdoor cut, using that constant motion to mix in some clutch 3s when UCLA started frantically sagging into the paint on defense, unable to predict where the next offensive set was going to attack. And it’s not just about one game, they’re absolutely stacked!
Ben Mathurin is a future lottery pick on the wing averaging a cool 17.4 points per game on 46% shooting from the field while making 38% of his 3-point shots. On the interior Christian Koloko is a 7’1” menace in the paint, averaging 2.7 blocks per game and spear-heading a defense that ranks 11th in field goal percentage allowed and 3rd in percentage allowed on 2-point shots. They’re extremely deep and can play all styles. Need to play big? Along with Koloko they have 6’11” Azuolas Tubelis (averaging 14.5 points and 6.4 rebounds per game) and backup big Oumar Ball, who adds another 1.2 blocks per game as Koloko insurance. Need to play small-ball? Dalen Terry, Pelle Larsson, and Kerr Kriisa are skilled playmakers.
As a whole, it all coalesces into something even greater. Arizona led the nation with 19.9 assists per game as a team. To put that number into historical context, since the 1996/97 season no team has averaged 20 assists per game in a season. They’re also 5th in the nation in team rebounding, 8th in blocks, 3rd in field goal percentage... you get the gist. They’re elite at everything.
So Arizona is rolling to the championship, right? Well, ask Arizona fans about the ghosts of March past. No championships since 1997. No Final Four appearances since 2001. Arizona had consistently great teams throughout that period, and no postseason success to show for it. Add in a difficult region, including potential matchups with under-seeded Tennessee and Houston units, and more heartbreak could be on its way. But I’m buying the breakthrough this year. These dudes ooze confidence. All the crowd stare downs and smug waves to the UCLA student section during their comeback only furthered that notion. I’m happy to stake my fortune to this team!
Iezzi: I had them 1B to Kansas’ 1A so we’re on the same page there. I think these were the obvious top two picks in the draft. I’ve seen every analyst have Arizona in their Final Four or winning the National Title, there’s just something about it that’s really hard for me to get past. Ben Mathurin? Stud. Sure. I’ll give you that. The Pac-12 is a three bid league this year. They have a coach that’s NEVER been a head coach in the NCAA tournament before. They’re a younger team - the only senior in the rotation is Justin Kier who plays 20 mpg and averages 7 points. Their win over Illinois earlier in the season was impressive, that was also without Andre Curbello on the floor. They lost to Tennessee, who is also in this region mind you, back when Tennessee wasn’t playing at the level they are now. I don’t know. All the metrics line up. They look damn impressive physically. There’s just something about them that gives me pause. Kerr Kriisa, who everyone describes as Arizona’s ‘glue guy’, is going to ‘try to play’ but he also posted a picture on Instagram that says that’s a long way away from happening. Every year there’s a team that’s hot coming into the tournament that gave us signs throughout the year that they weren’t as good as everyone might think - 16-point losses to UCLA *AND* Colorado, 4-point win over Stanford that was close throughout in the Pac-12 tournament, close win at home over Oregon - that bows out early. Won’t be shocked if it’s Arizona.
Lurie: These are fair criticisms. The Kriisa injury is especially ill-timed, but I thought Larsson and Kier filled in nicely in his absence, which is part of the reason I’m so high on their depth. No resume is bullet-proof in this sport, but with this next pick I’m securing 2 teams I feel pretty great about collectively.
Pick #3 (Lurie): Kentucky Wildcats
Lurie: I always buy into Kentucky come tournament time. I came away weirdly impressed watching them lose to Tennessee in the SEC tournament. It was a nightmare performance: Their best player, Oscar Tshiebwe, was battling foul trouble, and they shot 2/20 from 3-point range. Even with everything going wrong, they still put a scare into a really good Tennessee team late in that game.
Like usual, the roster is loaded. The aforementioned Tshiebwe is an NCAA player of the year favorite, averaging 17 points and 15.2 rebounds per game. TyTy Washington is a projected lottery pick with a balanced combo of scoring and playmaking (12.8 points and 4 assists per game). Kellen Grady is a lights out shooter (made 42% of his 3-pointers on the season, and that’s after a recent slump). And Sahvir Wheeler has a non-stop motor and averages 7 assists a game. And unlike Kentucky rosters of recent years, they’re an experienced team. Every major contributor besides TyTy is a junior or senior.
Statistically, the offense is super efficient (14th in field goal percentage, 18th in assists), they dominate the glass (11th in rebounds), and they guard the perimeter well (33rd in 3-point percentage allowed). One weakness is perimeter shooting, where they rank 114th in 3-point percentage nationally. But this is college basketball, every team has weaknesses. There’s just not too many holes to find with this roster. Oh, and they probably have the win of the season, with an 18-point shellacking of your #1 pick Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence. Anything less than an Elite Eight appearance would be surprising to me.
Iezzi: This is largely why I was hoping you’d choose the #1 pick after winning our coin flip. The top three are in a tier group above everyone else. In some order I think Kansas-Arizona-Kentucky is the right answer to the test, doesn’t mean it will play out that way but it’s hard not to love Kentucky’s draw. Purdue is a weak #3 seed. Baylor is the weakest #1 seed and is banged up. If Kentucky can avoid shooting performances like the one against Tennessee in the SEC Title (2-20 from three 😮💨) they have as good a shot as anyone at cutting down the nets.
Pick #4 (Iezzi): Gonzaga Bulldogs
Lurie: We’re too in sync so far! I feel a divergence coming soon. I know you have some NONSENSE up your sleeve when we get through the Tier 1 contenders.
Iezzi: You just wait.
But Gonzaga is the #1 overall seed for a reason. #1 on Kenpom by a WIDE margin! They’re the same distance away from #2 Arizona (5.76 efficiency points) as Arizona is from #15 Texas. They have the (potential) #1 overall draft pick in Chet Holmgren. They start two seniors in the backcourt in Andrew Nembhard and Rasir Bolton. Having guys with the ball in their hands with experience in crunch time in March is critical to me. Drew Timme is, for the second straight year, the “Tyler Hansbrough Award Winner” given out to the best college player that has no shot at an NBA career. Gonzaga has quietly become the MOST RELIABLE team in the NCAA tournament. Here’s what they’ve done since 2016: Elite Eight, Sweet Sixteen, National Title appearance, Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, National Title appearance. They matchup well with every team in their region - especially given Duke’s recent struggles defensively. I don’t think this Gonzaga team is as good as the one last year but I also don’t think there’s a Baylor standing in their way.
Oh and one last thing. All those metrics I listed earlier about Kansas? They check all those boxes (replace #1 overall draft pick with the lottery pick guard) too. Here’s where it starts to get interesting though… This felt like an obvious fourth pick with the top three off the board. Where do you go from here is the question?
Lurie: I love the “Tyler Hansbrough Award Winner”. It’s too perfect and fits for multiple criteria including “great college player that no one likes.” I had the exact point written down in my notes about their recent consistency in tournaments, I think it’s overlooked because they lack the grand prize. My biggest hesitancy with Gonzaga is they had 5 “barometer” games this year, or non-conference matchups against really good tournament teams, and they went 3-2. Losses to Duke and Alabama, wins against Texas Tech, Texas, and UCLA. That’s a good resume, just not the world-beating one from last season.
Speaking of UCLA, I know you want me to take them…BUT YOU CAN HAVE THEM!
Pick #5 (Lurie): Tennessee Volunteers
Lurie: I could be overreacting here. The “trendy” team heading into the tournament almost always seems to disappoint. But Tennessee’s resume goes beyond their incredibly impressive SEC tournament run. They beat Arizona, they beat Kentucky twice, they beat Auburn. And there’s no losses to bad teams. This was a consistent-performing team the whole season, and I’m shocked they’re not on the 2-line. And as far as that SEC tournament title, the win over Kentucky is well-documented. But I came away even more impressed by the from-the-tip beatdown they put on Texas A&M in the SEC final. It would have been super Tennessee-like to win a huge game and then come out with a clunker, but that didn’t happen at all.
Guard play is king in the NCAA Tournament. Give me projected 1st round pick Kennedy Chandler (13.8 points, 4.6 assists per game) and Santi Vescuvi (13.4 points, made 40% of his 3-point shots). Toss in little Josiah-Jordan James and lighting-fast freshman Zakai Zeigler. Mix it all together and smell that winning formula my friend! And sure they’re not as dominant on the interior as some other top contenders, but look at this guy:
Their top freshman recruit, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, looked mighty promising in the SEC tournament. If that carries into NCAA tournament play, then the team’s stock rises even higher. They rank 3rd overall in defensive efficiency, so they check your “must rank in the top 6 in one category box” too. They lost by 18 to Villanova earlier this season, who happens to be the 2-seed in their region? Big whoop. They lost their first game to Kentucky by 28, then soundly beat them in the next two matchups.
One thing to look out for: The two ball handlers I expect to close out games, Chandler and Zeigler, are freshmen. Chandler in particular only shoots 61% from the free-throw line, not ideal for the late game pressure situations they may find themselves in. They were a bit sloppy closing out Kentucky late, so I’ll be keeping an eye on their closing lineups throughout the tournament.
Iezzi: I like the Vols. They looked scary this past week. If they play the way they did these next few weeks the same way they did throughout the SEC tournament, they could easily win it all. You mentioned the two freshmen having the ball in their hands at the end of games, that does concern me. You mentioned the loss to Villanova, that concerns me too. Here’s one more stat I’ll throw out there for you.
Rick Barnes coached teams are 1-11-1 against the spread in their last 13 NCAA tournament games. Since he led Texas to the Elite Eight in 2008, here are his results in the NCAA Tournament:
2009: 7 seed, lost in the 2nd round.
2010: 8 seed, lost in the 1st round.
2011: 4 seed, lost in the 2nd round.
2012: 11 seed, lost in the 1st round.
2014: 7 seed, lost in the 2nd round.
2015: 11 seed, lost in the 1st round.
2018: 3 seed, lost in the 2nd round.
2019: 2 seed, lost in the Sweet Sixteen.
2021: 5 seed, lost in the 1st round.
He’s gotten to the second weekend once. The first six teams were with Texas, the last three with Tennessee. He’s had talent and high seeds before. He’s underperformed multiple times in March. A coach who struggles and a team with inexperience at the guard position that also might be feeling themselves a little bit right now … they’re ripe for a Sweet Sixteen exit.
I also think it’s interesting you chose two of your first three picks in the same region! You said you want me to have UCLA…
Pick #6 (Iezzi): UCLA Bruins
Iezzi: Fine. I’ll take them. Here’s my first ‘outlier’ pick. You took Tennessee from me which would’ve been my next choice. I got the favorite in the Midwest. I got the favorite in the West. Give me the team that I like the best in the East region. I basically just locked in three out of the four Final Four teams. We aren’t even to pick seven yet and you’re already toast!
We know about UCLA’s run through the tournament last year. Every important player from that team returned to give it another go this year. They started the season ranked #2 in the country, struggled a little in the middle of the season, but in a lot of ways are starting to hit their stride here at the right time. How much different would we be viewing this team if they wouldn’t have blown a 10-point lead in the second half against Arizona in the Pac-12 championship game? Everyone is talking about Arizona like it’s a walk in the park that they’ll make the title game. UCLA split the regular season matchups with them, blowing them out once, and had that game this past Saturday. Star Johnny Juzang who averaged almost 23 points per game in the tournament last year is back healthy from an ankle injury he suffered in February. This is a balanced team full of experienced and talented players that have already maneuvered through the tournament up against difficult circumstances once before together.
UCLA is ranked #8 on Kenpom. They’re one of four teams (Gonzaga, Houston, Baylor being the others) that ranks in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They had three of the top 20 scorers in the Pac-12 AND three players on first team all-defense. They’re in the region with the weakest one seed as Baylor struggled down the stretch and is banged up right now. Mick Cronin knows how to win in March. This is the lowest rated seed that has the best chance at winning the national title. I’m buying all the UCLA stock heading into this weekend.
Lurie: I feel like Mick Cronin was on the same plane as Rick Barnes as far as tournament disappointments prior to last season’s UCLA run. If anything he reinforces my Tennessee pick! It’s Rick Barnes’ time!
UCLA was high on my board too, although I feel like they fall more into the “they overachieved on their run and their players came back because they aren’t top NBA prospects” category than the “2006 Florida running it back” mold. The UCLA offense is a bit iso-heavy (107th nationally in assists) and inefficient (121st in field goal percentage), so I think they could be vulnerable to a season-killing cold spell, but they got a great draw with banged-up Baylor as the 1-seed in their segment of the East region.
Also, don’t think I didn’t hear your criticism about 2 of my first 3 picks in the same region! I got something coming for you..
Pick #7 (Lurie): Auburn Tigers
Iezzi: Congrats! You just took the first team on the fraud list!
Lurie: What fraud list? You’re the fraud!
As you can see with my picks so far, I’m all in on the SEC, which has quietly been the best conference in college basketball this year. The Big 10 has 9 teams in the tourney? Cute. They’ll all be out by the Elite Eight. I’m picking an SEC team for the 3rd time in 4 picks because I think the best leagues breed the most tournament-ready teams. And Auburn laid waste to this league all season. Yes, they have struggled of late, but none of their 5 losses stand out as truly bad. And they were all close! Their largest loss of the season – by 6 points, to 5-seed Connecticut at that.
As for the roster, don’t you wish the future Number 1 overall pick Jabari Smith was a member of one of your teams? I think I’m going to enjoy his 17 points, 7 rebounds and 43% shooting from 3-point land during the tournament. And what about their other projected first rounder, Walker Kessler, and his casual 4.5 blocks per game. Good luck scoring on the interior against these guys, who rank 4th in field goal percentage allowed on 2-point attempts. They’re also feisty as hell on the perimeter defensively, ranking 20th in steals nationally, and 8th overall in KenPom Defensive Efficiency.
Now for the elephant in the room. Auburn’s two lead guards are super difficult to trust. Wendell Green is a sight to behold when he catches fire. I could see him hitting a top tier legendary shot in this tournament. But his style also leads to about 5 horrendous shot attempts a game. And K.D. Johnson is fresh off an 0/14 performance in their SEC tournament loss, so I’m not exactly vibing to him right now.
I think we can rule out a national title for this team. No national champion since 1985 failed to make at least their conference tournament’s semifinal game, and Auburn lost in the SEC quarterfinal. But I think they have a great draw to get to the Final Four. Their potential 3-seed matchup, Wisconsin, absolutely loves shots within the arc, just where Auburn thrives. Make it to the Elite Eight and they are arguably the more talented team in a potential matchup with Kansas. Yes, I picked two teams from the same region, all the more reason to go with a high variance pick here.
Iezzi: That’s nice you’ve got Jabari. Hopefully Auburn remembers he exists during crunch time against Miami in round two like they’ve forgotten multiple times throughout the year. I didn’t have them on my list. Because I think they bow out early. I’ll take my chances avoiding a team full of freshmen and sophomores that’s shown they struggle away from home all season long. That rowdy crowd ain’t gon be there to save you… Here’s their last seven games away from the friendly confines:
One-point win v. 12-21 Missouri.
Two-point comeback win v. 6-26 Georgia.
Loss to Arkansas.
Loss to Florida.
Loss to Tennessee.
OT win v. 18-15 Mississippi State.
Loss to Texas A&M.
Good luck with that. Now to an experienced team that has proven they can handle life on the road…
Pick #8 (Iezzi): Texas Tech Red Raiders
Lurie: Yawn. Thanks for taking them off my plate.
Iezzi: Hey, no problem! Generally speaking, I’m not the biggest fan of Texas Tech this year. I feel like that’s largely due to the fact that they totally fucked me on two parlays as massive money line favorites when they blew big leads against TCU and Oklahoma State - both would’ve cashed 5+ game parlays at long odds. Putting that aside…
The numbers are favorable for this team. The analytics love them. They’re #9 on Kenpom. They’re the #1 defensive team in the country. They have an impressive resume with wins stacked up over Tennessee, Kansas, Baylor x2 when they were healthy, Oklahoma x2, Texas x2, etc. All NINE guys that play 15+ minutes per game for them are juniors or seniors. They reloaded through the transfer portal this past year when Bryson Williams, Davion Warren and Kevin Obanor (of 2021 NCAA Tournament fame) along with a few others all moved over from mid-majors. They’ve now had time to gel together. This is an experienced, deep, tough, physical team. They go through bouts where they struggle to score but their draw to the Elite Eight is as good or better than any of the other three seeds, especially with how favorably they hypothetically matchup with a talented but inexperienced, struggling to stop anyone right now Duke team in the Sweet Sixteen. I’ll take my locked in three wins, guarantee myself the champion of the West region and happily move onto my next pick.
Lurie: Still yawning...
Pick #9 (Lurie): Duke Blue Devils
Lurie: I hate myself for this, but at least I get to emotionally hedge. If Duke loses, cool! Fuck Duke! And if the most talented roster in the country goes on a big run, then show me the money. To your point on the narrative for UCLA being different if they beat Arizona, what about Duke? Take away two admittedly alarming losses and they might be rolling in as the team everyone is picking to win the title.
The losses were bad, yes. I saw a lot of hero ball in the ACC championship loss to (the number 1 overall seed in my heart) Virginia Tech. But that’s the thing, they have so much talent that they may be able to squeeze out games in the tournament without a cohesive identity. Do-it-all scoring forward Banchero (17 points and 7.8 rebounds per game) and AJ Griffin (47% shooting from 3!!) are projected top 5 picks on the wing. Wendell Moore Jr. is a potential lottery pick that does a little bit of everything, with efficiency to boot (51% shooting from the field, 40% on 3-pointers). Mark Williams is a monster in the paint, shooting 71% from the field and blocking 2.8 shots per game.
That’s the most talented top four that any team has. So what’s the issue? Depth is certainly a problem. Only six players average more than 5 points per game. They’re also inexperienced as far as the tourney is concerned – five of their top six contributors are underclassmen. I don’t think that necessarily forecasts their doom, but I can’t argue they’ve come up short in multiple big spots lately during the Coach K farewell tour.
But I’m going to focus on the positive! Super efficient offense – 7th in team field goal percentage), shooting 37% from 3 as a team, and 10th in assists. Good interior defense, ranking 10th in blocks nationally. Ignore the red flags and you can see the outline of a championship team. Feed me all the variance, I didn’t come here to play it safe!!
Iezzi: Never rooted for Duke my entire life until Courtney (my fantastic fiance for anyone reading this that doesn’t personally know me, shout out to Court) got a job there two months back but I quickly got sucked into the vortex and instantly found myself pulling for Coach K. I don’t understand the people that don’t respect him. I’ve always respected him. I feel like you have to! Not like him because he had success and beat your teams - great. Not respect him as a coach and as a man? Gtfoh with that. His ability to adjust throughout the last few decades to sustain this run has been incredibly impressive and he deserves praise for that.
Anyways. If Duke goes on a run through the tournament, ends up making the Final Four and costing me points here - I won’t be upset. I’ll be in New Orleans! Emotional hedge! I mindfucked you! I can’t lose! After watching Duke struggle to guard these last few weeks, it’s just hard for me to see them winning six straight games.
Pick #10 (Iezzi): Wisconsin Badgers
Iezzi: Since you took Auburn so early maybe you wouldn’t have taken these guys anyway but I love the way the bracket sets up for Wisconsin. Colgate can shoot it but Wisconsin leads the nation in turnovers per game, they have a legit lottery caliber wing in Johnny Davis for the first time in a while and Brad Davison is playing in his 317th college basketball game this weekend, guaranteed to steal at least two possessions with charges. These guys won’t beat themselves which is important in any potential upset scenario. Second round they’ll play against one of two teams completely limping down the stretch - LSU firing their coach, Iowa State losing 7 out of their last 11 including their last three (capped off by a 31-point defeat to Texas Tech… WOOF!) - so I feel really good about locking in two guaranteed points here. Another underrated aspect? The Badgers’ first two games will be in Milwaukee, then they’ll head to Chicago for the Sweet Sixteen. They’re going to have home court advantage all the way until the Elite Eight. Not a huge factor, but certainly not a hindrance either.
We’re getting past the top tier contenders here. There’s going to be flaws or easy nitpicks with any team moving forward. I’ve already stated my doubts about Auburn. Give me the Badgers to meet the Jayhawks in the Midwest Regional Final. I think this is the easiest path to the Elite Eight still remaining. I’ve already locked in two guaranteed regions. Do you want to just Venmo me $500 now?
Lurie: So you got this dude against Auburn’s Twin Towers?
Bet.
Pick #11 (Lurie): Baylor Bears
Lurie: Sure, I’ll take the reigning National Champions and 1-seed Baylor Bears with the 11th pick in the draft! And while we’re at it, it’s time we give the Big 12 its due. The conference sported the 2019 runner-up in Texas Tech, the prohibitive 2020 favorite in Kansas before the COVID-canceled tournament, and the 2021 championship program I am selecting with my pick. That’s a hell of a run, remember when we used to think of the Big 12 as a “Football Conference”?
And like your rationale for picking UCLA, Baylor has a few holdovers from its championship team in Matthew Mayer (aka “Mullet Man”), Adam Flagler, and Flo Thamba (the greatest name anyone has ever been given). They also sport two projected first round picks in Kendall Brown (shooting 60% from the field!!) and Jeremy Sochan, who has been channeling the spirit of Dennis Rodman of late with his hair style and versatility.
The backcourt is experienced with the aforementioned Flagler and transfer James Akinjo. They form an undersized backcourt (6-1 and 6-3 respectively) but are super sneaky, averaging 3 steals a game between the pair of them. Baylor also crushes the offensive glass (15th in offensive rebounds nationally) and choke the perimeter on D, allowing sub-30% 3-point shooting from their opponents on the season.
The injuries they’re dealing with suck. A big source of their dominant offensive rebounding, Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, is out for the season after getting knee surgery. Kendall Brown is managing a “lower-body” injury. Not great when the injury report resorts to hockey speak. There’s a reason we both allowed them to slip this far in the draft, but they’re still a 1-seed. They split the season series with Kansas, and they destroyed 2-seed Villanova early in the season, holding them to 36 points. They lost their leading scorer in February, LJ Cryer, and kept things humming. They’ve proven they are tough enough to weather the storm, so this buy-low opportunity is too good to pass up for me.
Iezzi: I appreciate YOU giving the Big 12 its due. Makes me feel even better about having their two best teams on my side. Thanks for making my argument for me!
Pick #12 (Iezzi): Villanova Wildcats
Iezzi: Did I just get a two seed with the 12th pick in the draft??
Going to list some facts.
Since 2013, Villanova has seven Big East regular season titles, five Big East tournament titles and two national championships. They’ve lost one game in the last month, a two point loss @UConn where they blew the game in the final 30 seconds. They’re led by National Champion, 2x Big East POY Collin Gillespie who is averaging 16 points per game on 42% shooting from three. Jermaine Samuels is a four year starter. Justin Moore is a three year starter. They’re old, experienced, have a nice succinct 8-man rotation. They’re led by arguably the best coach in all of college basketball that has their program operating, as Jon Rothstein would say, like a Fortune 500 company. They rank 11th in Kenpom. They’re a top 10 offensive unit. This is a SOLID team.
Loyola isn’t the same team they were last year or during their Final Four run. Ohio State is fraudulent. And Villanova’s experience and coaching mismatch against Tennessee already shone through once this year… why won’t it again in the Sweet Sixteen? I don’t think this team is National Championship good this year, but they won a shit ton of games in a really tough league, are battle tested and are as good a bet as anyone in the tournament to get to at least the Sweet Sixteen.
Lurie: Thought you’d go out of the box by taking a chance on Loyola in this side of the bracket. Bummer…
Pick #13 (Lurie): Houston Cougars
Lurie: HOUUUUSTOOONN…THIS IS FOR YOU!! As you know John, this is my squad! OUR squad, really. As an aside for our 10 readers, John and I have a running joke that Houston is the best offensive rebounding team we’ve ever seen. College teams, professional teams, the Monstars. Name whatever team and I’m still taking these guys on the offensive glass. Watching Houston bully their way to the Final Four last season, their offensive rebounding prowess almost became a game within a game for me. It was endlessly entertaining to watch them clank jumper after jumper only for their possessed big men to snatch up the misses. It didn’t even matter what the score of the game was, the process was magnificent to behold.
And from what I’ve seen this year, the formula for the Cougars is the same– 163rd in 3-point field goal percentage, 7th in offensive rebounds nationally. Somehow they rank 125th in defensive rebounding, but 21st overall in total rebounding because of their activity on the offensive glass. The end result is a legitimately efficient offense– 11th in KenPom offensive rating, 11th in assists, 43rd in total field goal percentage. And they’re really good on defense– 1st in field goal percentage allowed, locking down the paint (9th in 2-point percentage allowed) and perimeter (11th in 3-point percentage allowed).
This is the best 5-seed in the bracket. Lock in two more wins for me, with upside beyond that. We just saw them make the Final Four. Why not a repeat?
Iezzi: I like Houston’s matchups, I like their metrics, I don’t like that they’ve beaten NO ONE all year. UVA? Cool. Memphis on their third try? Cool. Butler? Cool. You listed all those metrics but left off that best player and one true bucket getter on the biggest bricklaying team of all-time, Marcus Sasser, is out for the season. If they can even get there, their ceiling is two wins.
Speaking of a team that we love with an actual ceiling…
Pick #14 (Iezzi): Virginia Tech Hokies
Iezzi: I couldn’t leave this draft without picking our team. I figured you might try and steal them with your last pick, so I’m locking them in here, knowing that I’m fine taking whichever of these last two teams you leave me. Is this a homer pick? Yes. Is this a reasonable pick? Also yes.
This graphic was circulating around VT Twitter yesterday. Look at this Dave. Look at it!!!
Second best winning percentage of any major conference team in the last month and a half. Arizona, then Virginia Tech. The team everyone is picking to win the title… and then Virginia Tech. Above red hot Tennessee. Above red hot Villanova. Above EVERYONE ELSE! Virginia Tech!
Disrespectful that the committee put this team playing this way as an 11-seed but as a fan I’m fired up about it. Who cares what seed you are, whether it’s 8-9-10-11-12… it all comes down to matchups. And Virginia Tech got a GREAT quadrant in my opinion. Texas has struggled to score and they limped down the stretch, going 3-5 in their final eight games. They’re well coached and good defensively but I’m not too concerned about the matchup here. Even Texas themselves isn’t confident.
And looking forward to the second round, I don’t think there was a better possible matchup on the 1-2-3 line for the Hokies than Purdue. Purdue can’t defend. Their advantage, beyond having Jared Ivey, is the ‘twin towers’ inside with Zach Edey and Trevion Williams. Those guys won’t be able to stay on the floor having to defend Keve Aluma, Justyn Mutts and a variety of shooters they’ll be switched on repeatedly time after time after time. Give me Mike Young over Matt Painter in an important game.
This is ultimately us drafting teams we expect to get the most wins, right? Bias aside, Virginia Tech has a great and realistic route to the Sweet Sixteen, just dismantled three tournament teams on back-to-back-to-back nights, has had high level advanced metrics all season even through the downturn during the middle of the year and is peaking at the right time. I’m having to walk the fine line between reality and bias, but if we woke up in two weeks and Virginia Tech was in the Final Four, it’d surprise but not shock us, right? Plus it’s going to feel great knowing that our school is racking up points for me and not you on our run to the Natty.
Lurie: You got the true number 1 overall seed with the 14th pick. When I look back on this draft after the tournament, this could be the moment it all fell apart for me. But I still got one more shot left in the chamber..
Pick #15 (Lurie): Iowa Hawkeyes
Lurie: For all my Big Ten slander, we’re at the point in the draft where I’m looking to bank two wins where I can get them. I think Iowa is the surest bet left to meet this criteria. They get buckets on offense (2nd in KenPom offensive efficiency, shout-out to him as always) and are balanced in all areas– 53rd in field goal percentage, 41st in 3-point percentage, 46th in offensive rebounding, 20th in assists, 4th in total points, and only 9.2 turnovers per game. Efficiency + ball protection = dominant offense.
Their best player, Keegan Murray, has the most mind-numbing stat line I’ve maybe ever seen for a college player. Here are his per-game averages:
23.6 points
8.6 rebounds
1.3 steals
2 blocks
56% shooting
41% 3Pt shooting
WHAT!!! He’s currently projected to go 10th in the NBA Draft. Based on his stat line and the eye test (He’s 6’8”, 215), I’m surprised he’s not projected to go higher. The downside for this team is their defense stinks– their opponents shot 50% from 2-point range on the season. That’s Michael Jordan’s career shooting percentage in the NBA, not great!
This team also includes Keegan Murray’s twin brother Kris Murray (a good player in his own right) and their head coach’s son Patrick McCaffery. They are more than a team, they are a FAMILY. Lol..but seriously, book the Sweet Sixteen trip. They play Richmond in Round 1, who won’t be able to hang offensively, and the 4-seed in their grouping, Providence, was last seen getting annihilated by Creighton in the Big East tourney. Closing out my draft with two more wins in the ledger.
Iezzi: I think it’s a fair pick. Maybe even obvious at this stage with who is still left on the board. I was fine giving up the ability to draft them in favor of the Hokies even feeling like Iowa has a pretty safe path to the Sweet Sixteen. I’ll just never trust them in March. I was admittedly impressed with the way they played in the Big Ten tournament but I’m not a believer in that conference to begin with. They played one good team in the non-conference and lost to Iowa State by 20. We’ll see… I’m certainly curious to see if their fate changes this year when they actually have a bonafide top-10 pick on the floor. They can lose to Richmond. They can also lose to South Dakota State… who they’ll definitely be playing in the second round.
Pick #16 (Iezzi): Connecticut Huskies
Iezzi: Alright. For my last pick, give me the team that just never seems to die in March. We’ve reached the stage where everyone has flaws, everyone has a tough road to multiple wins beyond the Sweet Sixteen. This team has a lot of positive qualities to it. They’re 1 of 13 teams that ranks in the top 35 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’re experienced especially in the backcourt with four of their top six rotation players being seniors. They have some top end talent - both RJ Cole and Adama Sanogo were first team All-Big East. They’ve beaten Auburn, they’ve beaten Villanova. There aren’t many (any?) teams at this stage in the draft with multiple skins against top two seeds. Quick glance, the only other team I could find was Alabama and they’ve been the most inconsistent team in the country.
I like them to get past New Mexico State. I actually like Vermont over Arkansas on round one, so I think they’re going to have a 12-13 route to the Sweet Sixteen. I also like that I’ve now secured, in my opinion, the three teams with the best shot at advancing to the Final Four from the West Region.
Lurie: I respect going with the Huskies here. Not sure how much I buy the Big East this year, as evidenced by my zero selections from the conference, but you could make worse bets than riding UConn magic in March. Now that we’ve wrapped up, I wanted to highlight a few notable teams who weren’t drafted:
Purdue Boilermakers (3-seed)
Arkansas Razorbacks (4-seed)
Illinois Fighting Illini (4-seed)
Providence Friars (4-seed)
Purdue is by far the most glaring omission to me. Chalk it up to our Virginia Tech bias (or logic!).
Iezzi: I’m feeling pretty good about my teams! Easiest $500 I’ve ever made. This is going to be fun.
Lurie: We shall see my friend! Super excited for this, I think our teams are pretty balanced. You hoarded the top seeds in the West, I have the South, and we split up the East/Midwest regions. Now to sit back and watch these selections blow up in our faces.
For those of you that made it through this thread, we appreciate you as always for reading our work. John and I put a lot of research into this, but use our analysis at your own peril when filling out your brackets. As we all know, nothing is predictable during this time of the year..
Enjoy the Madness!
Like the banter. Would translate well to a real podcast discussion.