Ever since we heard about the Circa Sports Million contest that is going on its fourth iteration this year, David and I have talked about entering and participating together. While you can submit picks from anywhere during the week, one of the stipulations is that you have to physically enter the contest, which is a $1,000 buy-in, in Las Vegas. We’re not in a stage yet where we can go out of our way to fly to Vegas just to participate in this contest, nor do we know anyone that could proxy enter for us… that won’t stop us from pretending and trying though!
This year in this space we are going to post our five NFL picks against the spread, just like we are participating together in this contest. I will submit two picks. David will submit two picks. We will submit one pick that we jointly agreed upon. And we’ll track and see how we do against the field (and each other!), as if we were participating in the contest.
The Circa point spreads used in the contest get released at 10 AM (local Las Vegas time) every Thursday and picks must be submitted by 4 PM on Saturday. In the spirit of the competition, we’ll stick to that schedule as well. Expect this article to be posted anytime between Thursday afternoon and Friday evening, depending on our schedules that week.
We might get crushed! We might do awesome! But this will be fun to track.
John’s Picks (0-0)
Pick #1: Houston Texans +7 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Wonky shit happens every week one. I love home dogs playing against inter-divisional foes giving 6+ points. We don’t have a huge sample size, but we do have this.
The Colts are 0-8 straight up in the last 8 years to start the season.
The Colts have received 55% of the bets but only 14%!!!! of the overall money as of this typing according to action network. A 41% difference! The largest on the slate. Sharps and whales are hammering Houston.
In W1 2020, the Jaguars played at home against the Colts and went off the board as 8-point underdogs. They won outright 27-20.
In W1 2020, the *Commanders* played at home against the Eagles and went off the board as 6-point underdogs. They won outright 27-17.
In W1 2020, the Cardinals played @ San Francisco and went off the board as 6.5-point underdogs. They won outright 24-20.
There were no examples of this situation in 2019 or 2021 but last year the Steelers won outright as 6-point underdogs in Buffalo, the Browns covered 6.5 v. the Chiefs, the Ravens lost outright as 4-point favorites on the road in Las Vegas and the Lions, who ended up being a terrible as expected, almost covered the 7.5 v. the eventual NFC runner-up San Francisco 49ers.
Again, wonky shit happens in week one.
Pick #2: Carolina Panthers -1.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
I’m not as bought into the Baker Mayfield revenge narrative as I am the ‘Jacoby Brissett is a bad quarterback’ narrative. The Panthers won’t entirely stop Nick Chubb, but they have enough talent in their front seven to load up the box and force Brissett to beat them. I don’t think he’ll be able to.
This line opened at +4! and has moved all the way to -1.5 due to 76% of the bets and 87% of the money coming in on the Panthers (and Deshaun Watson being suspended). Consider me a part of that group.
David’s Picks (0-0)
Pick #1: Baltimore Ravens -7 @ New York Jets
I think the Ravens lay the smackdown here. They start the season with a clean slate after a nightmare campaign last year, and will be licking their chops to get off to a hot start against a bad team. The Jets are starting Joe freaking Flacco, who has started only 5 games in the last 2 seasons with mostly terrible results. The only area that the Jets feature above average talent is at the skill positions, but a healthy Ravens secondary is well equipped to shut them down. I don’t see the Jets being able to slow down any aspect of the Ravens offense. It’s a high line to bet on the road for any team, but if the Ravens bounce back this season like I think they will, laying a touchdown will feel too low in hindsight.
Pick #2: Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
This feels like a trap. The hyped up Chargers at home (or rather, playing in a stadium located in the city they represent) against an inferior division rival on paper only laying 3.5 points?
Welp, I’m taking the bait!!!
In what phase of the game do the Raiders project to be superior to the Chargers? I think it was fluky they made it to the postseason over the Chargers last season, and the Chargers are much improved, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The newly formed pass rush pairing of Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa are going to FEAST on this Raiders offensive line. Their revamped secondary should be able to hold the Raiders passing game in check. And give me Justin Herbert over Derek Carr any day of the week.
I don’t care if the crowd is filled with cardboard cutouts, I’ll take the better team here.
Mutual Pick (0-0)
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 @ Dallas Cowboys
The two teams we debated for this spot were the Bucs and the 49ers. We also talked about the Dolphins/Patriots game but ended up split on what we see happening. Due to some of the statistics referenced above with teams starting the year on the road and being favored by 7+ points, we decided to stick with ol’ reliable: Tom Brady.
The Cowboys are banged up to start the year. No Tyron Smith protecting Dak Prescott’s blindside. No Michael Gallup out wide. No James Washington, who was catching some steam heading into fall camp. The Bucs aren’t 100% themselves, with Chris Godwin unlikely to play and Ryan Jensen on injured reserve, but we trust Tampa to take care of business in this situation.
Dallas is going to have to run the ball, especially early in the season. We expect teams to be able to load up on CeeDee Lamb and force Dak to beat them with secondary options. The Bucs have year-over-year consistently done a good job of stopping the run. We don’t expect it to be any different in this matchup, and we don’t see Dallas keeping up with Tampa Bay offensively.
I’ll go to Vegas for y’all next year