The 2022 Football Wins Pool, Part 2: NFL
2 Men. 1 Winner. Reputations are on the line!
We’re back! Similar to how we drafted and approached the college football version of the wins pool, we’ll be doing an NFL competition concurrently.
An overview of the rules:
This is a 2 person competition: Team David Lurie vs. Team John Iezzi
We each drafted 8 teams. Throughout the NFL season (including the postseason), we will be tallying all wins for the teams we selected. Whoever’s group of teams has more wins on aggregate at the end of the season wins the competition.
We were each limited to ONE team per division. Once someone selected a team in a division, the other chose from the remaining group of three.
We flipped a coin to determine the draft order. The winner of the coin flip chose whether to pick first, or defer and get both the 2nd and 3rd picks. We then rotated picks back and forth from there to the end of the draft.
Team Iezzi won the coin toss and chose to take the 1st pick.
TL;DR: Draft Results (in order of selection)
Team Lurie: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Green Bay Packers - Indianapolis Colts - Baltimore Ravens - New England Patriots - Dallas Cowboys - San Francisco 49ers - Los Angeles Chargers
Team Iezzi: Buffalo Bills - Philadelphia Eagles - Los Angeles Rams - Kansas City Chiefs - New Orleans Saints - Minnesota Vikings - Tennessee Titans - Cincinnati Bengals
Pick #1: Buffalo Bills - AFC East (John)
This explanation won’t take long.
Preseason Super Bowl favorites.
Highest preseason o/u (11.5) with juice to the over.
Tied with the Buccaneers for largest division favorite. While the Saints are +300 to win the NFC South, the next closest AFC East team is the Dolphins at +450.
This is a competition where we need to have a team in each division. This is a competition where we count wins all the way through the playoffs. Of course I’m going to take the team that has the highest differential between projected #1 team and #2 team in the division, that also just so happens to be the preseason Super Bowl favorite.
Plus … you know what? I love rooting for the Bills! I love watching the Bills! In any non-Steelers matchup, why wouldn’t I cheer for Buffalo?? They’re fun. They’re exciting. They’re lovable losers chasing after the illusive dream that always falls just out of their grasp. Plus, I’ve already locked in my future bet of Bills over (it’s a surprise!) in the Super Bowl at +10000 odds, so I’m financially incentivized to root for this.
Bills Mafia!
David’s AFC East Pick: New England Patriots
If John and I had scrapped the 1 team per division requirement, the Patriots wouldn’t have been one of my draft picks. They are mediocre on paper this year.
Besides the offensive line, I’m not sure they have a single above-average unit on this team. And even the offensive line’s performance will likely drop off, as standout right guard Shaq Mason is with the Buccaneers now, and is being replaced by 1st round rookie Cole Strange, who was a widely criticized draft pick. They also had several cap management casualties on defense, with star cornerback JC Jackson and linebacker Kyle Van Noy both signing with the LA Chargers in free agency, and linebacker Dont’a Hightower still unsigned. Despite being the 3rd most expensive unit in the league, the wide receiver corps continues to look weak: joining Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, and Nelson Agholor is former Miami receiver Davante Parker. The Dolphins traded Parker to their division rivals, which says a lot about how dangerous they perceive him to be.
Quarterback Mac Jones’ development in Year 2 will be critical for this team to return to the playoffs. In a draft class with several more highly touted prospects, Jones shined the brightest in his rookie season: he totaled 4,033 passing yards, 23 touchdowns on 7.3 yards per attempt. He’ll still be protected by an experienced offensive line, and he can lean on an effective running game that ranked 9th in efficiency last season. Jones will need to adjust to the loss of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who is now the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. McDaniels is being replaced by the combination of failed head coaches Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, an uninspired choice to say the least.. Their defense will lean on a talented secondary, led by Safeties Kyle Dugger, Devin McCourty and Adrian Phillips, and Matthew Judon’s ability to get to the quarterback (12.5 sacks last season).
This was a balanced team last year, finishing 10th in offensive efficiency and 2nd in defensive efficiency, but the degree of difficulty will be higher this season: their schedule is projected to jump from the 8th easiest last season to the 7th most difficult.
They continue to be led by the greatest head coach in sport’s history, Bill Belichick. The Dolphins would have been the flashy pick here, but it felt too risky to take a quarterback who has yet to deliver on his promise in Tua Tagovailoa, and brand new head coach Mike McDaniels, who more closely resembles a college student finishing his mechanical engineering degree than an NFL veteran. Maybe McDaniels is a rockstar and unlocks Tua’s potential, and I look like an idiot in January. I’m sticking with what I know, which is that the Patriots have faced a lot of adversity over the years and won a lot of football games.
Pick #2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - NFC South (David)
Setting aside Tom Brady’s bizarre training camp absence and re-designed appearance, the Bucs still remain heavy favorites in the NFC South this year. It seems like every AFC team is coming into this season with a ton of hype, but someone is going to come out of the NFC this year. Why not go with the GOAT?
Brady will be 45 years old this season. Everything he has done the past several years and will do from this point forward remains unprecedented in football history. Until I see signs of decline, I’m just going to believe this guy is going to be amazing for all eternity. We had all the same concerns heading into last season, and he responded by leading the best passing offense in the NFL. There’s concern about his offensive line, as they are replacing 3 starters, but they still have Tristan Wirfs and Donovan Smith, who ranked 2nd and 15th respectively at the tackle positions last season, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). They also traded for Shaq Mason, the league’s 4th best guard last season. If there’s a drop-off in performance it’ll be from the best unit in the league to merely a top 10 group. I also believe the quick-passing nature of their offense can mitigate declines in blocking performance. They still have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (returning from an ACL tear), Leonard Fournette, and newcomer Russell Gage at the skill positions, giving Brady a good set of weapons to utilize.
Their defense is LOADED. The front 7 will continue to be nasty: Shaq Barrett, Vita Vea, and Lavonte David are all still around and should remain dominant players at their positions. Devin White is continuing to develop as a pass rushing force, with 18 Quarterback hits last season. They also picked up Defensive Tackle Akiem Hicks to replace Ndamukong Suh and drafted Logan Hall in the 2nd round. I predict their run defense will rank closer to it’s 1st place finish in 2020 then its 12th placed finish last season. The secondary should be phenomenal as well: Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean, and Sean Murphy-Bunting make up a great group of corners, and Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. graded out as the 2nd best player at his position last season.
They play in a weak division, with an Atlanta Falcons team that could be the league’s worst, and a Carolina Panthers team that trades quarterbacks like an investment banker on Wall Street. They’re projected to face the 26th most difficult schedule in the league, which should ease their path to double digit wins.
Normally, I’d be more worried about a new Head Coach coming in, but they chose an internal replacement by promoting last year’s Defensive Coordinator Todd Bowles, and having a leader on the team like Tom Brady is like having a coach itself. I think Brady re-joined this team after a brief retirement because he saw how open the NFC landscape is once again. With one of the league’s most complete rosters and an easy schedule, they are in poll position to grab the 1 seed heading into the playoffs. Brady with home field in January has historically been a successful position.
John’s NFC South Pick: New Orleans Saints
The Saints hired/promoted Dennis Allen this offseason to replace Sean Payton, which yes, that worries me. For those that may have forgotten, he went 8-28 (not a typo!) in 2+ seasons as the Raiders head coach from 2012-2014. Ultimately this is a bet on two things:
Saints talent level and overall infrastructure not taking a step back even with the loss of Payton.
I have no belief in the Panthers or Falcons.
This was a team that still found a way to go 9-8 last season with Trevor Siemian and Ian Book combining for five starts, Michael Thomas missing the entire season and the starting WR core consisting of Marquez Callaway, Tre’Quan Smith, old Kenny Stills and Lil’Jordan Humphrey. WOOF!
Jameis is back healthy after tearing his ACL last season. Alvin Kamara looks like he’s going to avoid a potential suspension. Michael Thomas is back. The WR core has been bolstered by first round draft pick and big play threat Chris Olave + consistent and dependable Jarvis Landry. Taysom Hill has moved over to tight end where his athleticism will still have the chance to be taken advantage of without him having to be a liability throwing the football. Pete Carmichael is entering his 14th year as Saints OC. They promoted from within at a lot of places. This is an organization with a winning culture that has done their best to maintain and push forward that culture even through transition.
This certainly isn’t a team without question marks. Gone are the aforementioned Payton, LT Terron Armstead and SAFs Marcus Williams and Malcolm Jenkins. But this is as much a bet on the Saints as it is a bet against the Falcons and the Panthers. The Falcons are clearly rebuilding. The Panthers have some talent and are trying to win now - I’ll bet on the Saints talent level over theirs in a 1 v 1 over the course of the season.
Pick #3: Green Bay Packers - NFC North (Lurie)
I already took one potentially disgruntled Quarterback. Why not two! Kevin Clark from The Ringer wrote a great preview of the Packers last week. Amongst many interesting tidbits, what stood out to me was that despite the successful partnership between Aaron Rodgers and Head Coach Matt LaFleur, there’s a constant feeling of uncertainty that follows this team around. Despite just signing a contract that should lock him in as the Packers starter for the next several seasons, it never seems like Rodgers is completely satisfied with his situation. And yet year after year the Packers win 13 games and Rodgers adds to his MVP trophy case. Block out all the noise and it’s hard to imagine a scenario where this team isn’t really good for as long as Rodgers is running it.
He’s going to have his work cut out for him this season with the loss of superstar receiver Davante Adams. The new lead receiver will likely be Allen Lazard, which represents a steep drop-off, with Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins, and rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs competing for the remaining share of production. Rodgers will still have the excellent Running Back duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to lean on, and will likely lean on them even more in the passing game after they combined for over 700 receiving yards last year. It’s important to note how successful their offense was last season despite massive injuries across the offensive line. Despite losing Tackle David Bakhtiari for all but 1 game and Elgton Jenkins for over half the season, the unit still ranked 6th in pressure rate allowed. If this group remains healthy in 2022, this unit should return to its former dominance.
I’m really excited about the Packers defense as well. They only ranked 19th in defensive efficiency last season, but they have the talent to make a huge jump forward this season. The front 7 is filled with great players: Preston Smith and Rashan Gary on the edge, who combined for 18.5 sacks in 2021, Linebacker Dev’Vondre Campbell (ranked 2nd at his position per PFF), and Kenny Clark and Dean Lowry eating space on the interior. They’re adding 1st round rookie Devontae Wyatt from Georgia into the mix, which raises their ceiling up front. Their secondary could be the league’s best behind Cornerback Jaire Alexander, one of the premier players at his position, who only played 4 games last season and will look to re-establish his elite level of play. He’s backed by veteran Safety Adrian Amos and corners Rasul Douglas and Eric Stokes.
I like that they get 4 games this season against the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions. There are some tough non-division games, including road tests at Tampa Bay, Buffalo and Philly.
It won’t surprise me if the Packers take a step back this year. It’s hard to win 13 games in any given season, let alone for a 4th straight year. But while the focus has been on the impact that Adam’s loss will have on the passing game, there are promising signs of improvement on almost every other component of this team. They’ve been “over-achieving” for years now, but at a certain point that’s just a testament to having an all-time great Quarterback and a great young Head Coach. Once again they are capable of challenging for the NFC 1 seed, and one of these years you have to think Rodgers gets to another Super Bowl. Why not this year?
John’s NFC North Pick: Minnesota Vikings
Kiiiiiiind of falling in love with the Vikings! At least talking myself into it.
I think up to this point, the three ‘clear’ picks have all been taken. Whichever of us would’ve won the toss would’ve chosen first, the Bills were going to be taken in that slot, and then second and third would be the Bucs and Packers.
On paper it’s difficult to paint a picture for the Vikings winning the division, but I think there is a path. Because of where they finished last year, the Packers conference opponents are @ Tampa Bay and v. the Rams late in the season, whereas the Vikings get the Saints in London and the Cardinals (who I’m not a believer in!) at home. Both play Buffalo on the road. Both play at Miami. Both play at Philadelphia. Are we sure that the Packers are going to be good again offensively without Davante Adams?? Maybe (probably!), but maybe not!
This is again a bet against the other teams in the division as much as it is on the Vikings themselves. The Bears are dreadful on the offensive line and weak at the skill positions. The Lions are fun and Hard Knocks made it easy to fall in love with them, but they’re still the Lions, they’re o/u is still 6.5 games (compared to the Vikings 9.5), they’re still coming off a 3-13-1 record and they’re still quarterbacked by Jared Goff.
Plus. I have Justin Jefferson. Beyond wins, I’m optimizing for players and teams that I want to watch and root for. How can you not love this guy???
(Did I just intentionally avoid having any discussion whatsoever about Kirk Cousins? Yes.)
Pick #4: Philadelphia Eagles - NFC East (JI)
I told you after Pick #1 that it was a surprise who I had picked the Bills to play in the Super Bowl … well! It’s the Eagles!
I can already taste the 1k.
Let’s start with the reasons why this would be considered a bad pick.
Jalen Hurts.
Right?? That’s the reason why you read this and went ehhh I don’t really see it. There are still doubts dating back to him getting supplanted at Alabama (and what he’s shown through his first few seasons) about his ability to consistently beat teams through the air when forced to. Can he *really* read a defense? Why does he still struggle to throw the football away? Can you really trust this guy up against Brady or Rodgers in the playoffs? I think that’s fair. We’ll learn a lot about Jalen Hurts’ ability to be a true franchise quarterback this year.
He’s still the only QB since 1950 to post 4,000+ passing yards and 1,000+ rushing yards in his first 20 career starts. He still helped guide the team that finished #1 in the league in rushing yards and touchdowns last season, without starting RB Miles Sanders even contributing a single one towards that last number. He still helped guide this team to the playoffs last year, even after a 3-6 start. Hurts will now enter this season with far and away the most talent he’s ever had around him. DeVonta Smith is one year older. Miles Sanders is healthy. The offensive line is loaded. And oh … yeah … they added this guy, one of the most likely guys in the league to take an 8-yard slant and turn it into a 70-yard house call. Hurts doesn’t have to be those aforementioned QBs to guide this Eagles roster to double digits wins, favorable playoff seeding and a shot at the Super Bowl. Steady growth year-over-year as a passer, getting the ball into his playmakers hands and continuing to keep teams off balance with a run heavy approach just like at the end of the season last year will do the trick.
Defensively this team struggled at times, especially early in the season and against elite quarterbacks, from a statistical perspective, but as the Eagles became more confident in who they were as an offense, the defense improved alongside it. They made a conscious effort to reinvest in their core and get more athletic around it this offseason. Darius Slay is coming off a season where he was the 4th rated CB by Pro Football Focus. Derek Barnett and Fletcher Cox both re-signed. The Eagles added undersized but athletic Haason Reddick and Kyzir White to get faster off the edge and in the middle of the defense. They also drafted MONSTER DT Jordan Davis to help sure up the middle and landed incredibly talented but undersized Nakobe Dean from Georgia in the 3rd round, someone who many had projected would get drafted as high as the top 15 at different points last year.
This is a loaded team. Playing in the NFC East (easy division!). Whose division cross-over this year is the AFC South (more wins!). Who gets to avoid teams like the Niners and Rams and Buccaneers because they didn’t win the NFC East last year. I’m all-in on the Eagles in the NFC.
David’s NFC East Pick: Dallas Cowboys
I also believe the Eagles will win the NFC East this year, but they’re starting to get treated like they’re a runaway favorite. I still have my questions about Jalen Hurts, and that alone makes me think Dallas is neck and neck with them in the division race.
A lot went right for Dallas last year, only to end up in the same place they always seem do: a quick trip home in the postseason. Repeating their 12-win performance will require many factors to lean in their favor, but the floor for this team still remains relatively high. Dak Prescott is a steady top 10 Quarterback when healthy. He’ll be working with a less talented set of skill players this season, with the departures of Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson, but he still has potential star in the making CeeDee Lamb and a solid number 2 receiver in Michael Gallup at his disposal. Ezekiel Elliot looks to be on the decline, but he still forms a strong Running Back pairing with Tony Pollard.
They have a less positive outlook on the offensive line. A dominant unit from last season was already going to need to withstand the losses of starters Connor Williams and La’el Collins. Then Left Tackle Tyron Smith suffered an avulsion fracture to his leg in training camp and is expected to miss significant time. The Cowboys are bringing in legendary but oft-injured veteran Jason Peters to replace him, leaving this unit in a flimsy position heading into the season. After ranking 9th in offensive efficiency last season, I expect them to drop to the middle of the pack in 2022.
Nobody expects the Cowboys defense to repeat its performance as the league’s best unit in 2021, but they still have talent all over the place. Micah Parsons is a candidate for Defensive Player of the year, and forms an intimidating pass rush pairing with Demarcus Lawrence. They’re bringing in Dante Fowler as Randy Gregory’s replacement on the edge. The secondary should be above average, with a deep set of players including Jayron Kearse, Malik Hooker, Anthony Brown, and Pick-Six specialist Trevon Diggs. Their defense had SIX return touchdowns last season, which will be difficult to replicate, but they can still remain a top 10 defense without the ball-hawking.
The Cowboys play a favorable 2022 schedule. The NFC East has two bad teams in the Giants and Reds..er, Commanders. They’re also matched up with the NFC North (with the lowly Bears and Lions) and the AFC South (with the lowly Jags and Texans). There are plenty of bankable wins on the schedule, even if their performance drops from last season.
I’m not a Mike McCarthy guy by any means. I think he consistently lowers his team’s chances of winning with his conservative strategy and poor clock management. It’s easy to imagine him getting fired after this season if they fail to make the playoffs. But most teams are surrounded with questions in the NFL. Dallas has a solid enough roster to keep them afloat this year. I think the Eagles hype train has taken off way too fast, and I think the Cowboys can still win an up-for-grabs division.
Pick #5: Indianapolis Colts - AFC South (DL)
There are better teams available than the Colts at this juncture, but I’d rather force you to sort out who the 2nd AFC South team should be. And there’s a lot to like about this Colts team! They’re the odds-on favorite to win the division and could be a sleeper in the entire AFC.
It’s easy to forget the Colts beat your beloved Buffalo Bills 41-15 in Buffalo last season, and we all them penciled in as a threatening Wild Card team until their disastrous loss to Jacksonville in Week 18. Their disappointing season may help their 2022 outlook though, as it forced them to move on from Carson Wentz and bring in veteran Matt Ryan. Don’t expect Ryan to be in the MVP form of his heyday at age 37, but he’ll have a solid offensive line and an elite running game to lean behind Jonathan Taylor. TY Hilton is no longer around, but Michael Pittman was the best receiver on the team last year and will take on a larger role. The depth at this unit is worrisome, and could have them relying on rookie 2nd round pick Alec Pierce.
Their defense ranked 7th in overall efficiency last season, and should continue to perform at a high level. Linebacker Shaquille Leonard (formerly known as Darius) has been one of the best at his position for years. He’s coming off back surgery in the offseason, so his return to health will be critical as leader of the defense. DeForest Buckner is a beast on the interior, ranking 12th in pressure rate at his position in 2021 while leading a run defense that ranked 3rd in the league. On the edge, they’ll be looking for a boost from their pass rush, with the addition of Yannick Ngakoue and a potential Year 2 breakout from Kwity Paye. Newcomer Stephon Gilmore will look to bolster a secondary that was average defending the pass last season. His health will also be key, as he’s missed 14 games in the last 2 seasons.
The AFC South has been a bottom-tier division for almost a decade now, and I don’t expect that to change this year. The Colts will face what’s projected to be the 3rd easiest slate of opponents in 2022.
It’s been a strange era of Colts football since Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement, with a new QB stepping in every season since. I give Frank Reich credit for keeping the team afloat every year despite all the turnover. They were unlucky not to make the playoffs last year, finishing 2-5 in one score games. I believe Ryan’s steady hand will be worth at least another win to get them to double digits this season at 10-7. The league is driven by offense, and I’m not sure they have the firepower to belong amongst the conference’s elite, but the Colts are a sleeper to look out for. No one believed the Titans were an elite team last year, but they snagged the 1 seed in the playoffs by beating up on their division. The Colts could be capable of the same if there is a drop-off from other conference contenders.
John’s AFC South Pick: Tennessee Titans
I really wanted to take the Colts. I hate all three of the remaining teams. I’m not even going to pretend like I’m going to positively write up the Tennessee Titans this year. Yeah they’ll probably win a decent amount of games. Yeah they’re really, really well coached. Yeah they have Derrick Henry. Yeah Malik Willis is electric and maybe we’ll get to see him at some point this year. Yeah they drafted Caleb Farley and I’m rooting for him to be successful.
But … I think the Colts run away with the division this year, I think the Titans miss the playoffs, and I think I might regret letting Dave get the Colts at Pick 5. (Hopefully I’m wrong!)
This division beyond the Colts is yuck.
Pick #6: Los Angeles Rams - NFC West (JI)
For how disgusting a few of the prior divisions have been and may turn out to be, we’ve officially entered the ‘no bad pick … we think’ portion of the program. There are multiple teams in each of the remaining three divisions that could win the division, the conference, and potentially the Super Bowl.
I’m going with the ‘safe’ pick in the Rams here.
Defending Super Bowl champs. Lost Andrew Whitworth to retirement and Von Miller in free agency. Traded Robert Woods off an ACL to the Titans. They backfilled all of those spots by signing Allen Robinson off a dreadful season in Chicago, who according to all reports in camp has seemed to be reinvigorated. They re-signed Joe Noteboom to backfill the spot left by Whitworth, he played LT in his place when he was out last season, and fortified the second level of their defense by signing veteran Bobby Wagner. They may still add Odell Beckham back into the mix.
The decision inflection point came down to Matthew Stafford v. Trey Lance to me. I might end up looking like an idiot at the end of the year, I could also end up having faded a potentially disastrous QB situation. Sean McVay is as good a modern day coach that does and potentially will exist and got his Super Bowl last year. Cooper Kupp heads into this year coming off arguably the greatest wide receiver season of all time. He was the fourth player since the merger to finish first in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947!) and touchdowns (16!). Just the core three right there makes you feel warm and fuzzy about having this team on your side … and oh yeah, should probably mention they have this MFer:
…and THIS MFer.
In the NFL’s annual top 100 players list that came out ahead of this season, Jalen Ramsey ranked 9th, Cooper Kupp ranked 4th and Aaron Donald ranked 2nd. Only the Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes 8th // Travis Kelce 10th) had even TWO players in the top 10, and their next highest was Chris Jones at 39th.
The Rams are good (duh). They have elite talent (duh). They’ll maximize their talent (duh). They’ll win a bunch of games … that’s been proven out every year that McVay has coached them. They might win the Super Bowl again. The floor is high and the ceiling is high betting on this team.
David’s NFC West Pick: San Francisco 49ers
Despite having the 4th worst injury luck of any team in the league last season, the 49ers came heartbreakingly close to a spot in the Super Bowl, where they probably would have been favored to win. With Kyle Shanahan at the helm and a roster loaded with talent, they’re capable of seizing the division, and potentially the conference, back from the defending champs.
The big story is Trey Lance stepping in for Jimmy Garappolo as QB1. The news that Garappolo is returning as a backup is difficult to digest. My interpretation is that they’re not 100% sold on Lance and want to bring in a proven back up as insurance. But on the flip side, they traded a tremendous amount of draft capital to acquire Lance, demonstrating high confidence in his abilities. But guessing games aside, Lance’s performance will be critical in determining the future path of this franchise. Garappolo has been a solid starter for them, capable of nearly winning a Super Bowl twice when paired with Shanahan’s ingenuity. But you could also argue his limitations as a thrower have held the team back from reaching the pinnacle. If Lance performs like the star his draft slot suggests he can be, this team has as high a ceiling as anyone.
Lance has a stacked offensive ecosystem at his disposal to thrive. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle form an elite Wide Receiver/Tight End pairing, and Shanahan coached team’s always run the ball effectively, regardless of whose in the backfield. This balance was demonstrated by the team’s 5th ranked finish in BOTH passing and rushing efficiency last season. The offensive line has the best Left Tackle in Trent Williams, but lost starting Center Alex Mack to retirement. His replacement has only 3 career starts, so this unit will need to gel quickly to protect a first year starter.
The front 7 should be ridiculously good, with elite production at all levels:
Nick Bosa is an elite performer, with 21 tackles for loss last year.
Arik Armstead is the 12th ranked interior lineman per PFF, who also notched 6 sacks in 2021.
Fred Warner was the 4th ranked linebacker in the league, known for his excellent coverage skills.
They addressed their weaknesses in the secondary through free agency, bringing in Jimmy Ward and Charvarius Ward from the Chiefs. Improving their 18th ranked pass defense from 2021 will be key for the Niners to take a step up this season.
The schedule is rarely easy in the NFC West, although Russell Wilson’s departure could make their Seattle trip less daunting. They’re also paired with the AFC West, the best division in football, which will be tricky.
I’m ok with letting you dictate the terms of the NFC West picks, because I have a hard time separating the Rams and 49ers. We know both teams are capable of reaching the Super Bowl, but only the Rams have proven they can win the big one. This will continue to be one of the best division rivalries in football this season, and I’m excited to see if Trey Lance is the piece to get San Francisco over the top.
Pick #7: Baltimore Ravens - AFC North (DL)
Lost in the midst of last season’s tight AFC race was that the Ravens sat in poll position in December before being ravaged by the injury bug. Losing Lamar Jackson was the final straw in a year where they also lost the following key players: Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Marcus Peters, Ronnie Stanley, and Marlon Humphrey. Their 8-4 record dwindled to 9-8 by season’s end, crushing what could have been an excellent season. Then, they had to watch their division rivals take advantage by not only stealing the division, but making it all the way to the Super Bowl. You’ll have a hard time finding a more pissed off and motivated team heading into the 2022 season.
Criticize Lamar all you want, but he’s played at a top-10 level when healthy, despite his team investing almost nothing at the receiver position to help him. There’s hope that those days are over, as Rashod Bateman is getting a lot of hype in the preseason as lead receiver. Combined with star tight end Mark Andrews and a reinforced offensive line, with Ronnie Stanley returning and the addition of Morgan Moses (in free agency) and rookie 1st rounder Tyler Linderbaum, this offense is capable of blowing away its 14th ranked finish last season.
While the offense remained afloat for much of 2021, the defense completely cratered with all of its injuries, finishing 28th in defensive efficiency. By simply having their best player’s available, the defense should at least rise back to the middle of the pack, if not return to the top-10 level we’re used to seeing. The secondary looks like an All-Star team, with the aforementioned Peters and Humphrey at corner, along with the addition of safety Marcus Williams and rookie 1st rounder Kyle Hamilton. They also stocked up their depth with an underrated pick up of Virginia Techs finest, Kyle Fuller. Entering Year 75 of his career, Calais Campbell still brings the juice on the defensive line. The pass rush needs to improve, and is relying on a crop of younger players: Odafe Oweh is entering his 2nd season, and David Ojabo is a rookie.
Two of their division rivals are starting the season with Mitchell Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett at QB. The Bengals will need to weather the hangover of a difficult Super Bowl loss. All the pieces are in place for a huge Raven’s bounce back, they just need a little bit of luck on their side!
John’s AFC North Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Dave tried to put me in a situation where I had to choose between my head (the Bengals) and my heart (the Steelers) hoping that I would get too emotional and make the wrong decision. There’s money on the line! We’re picking with our head over here!
The Bengals probably shouldn’t have made it to the Super Bowl last season, with their non-existent offensive line and an up and down defense. And while there seems to be something to the post-Super Bowl loss ‘hangover’ that a lot of teams experience, I actually expect the Bengals to be *BETTER* this year than they were last year. That doesn’t mean they’ll make the Super Bowl again, potentially far from it in the loaded AFC, but I’ll be pretty shocked if they fall off a cliff. Yes they’re one Joe Burrow injury away from doing so - but so is every other team with a quarterback of his stature.
Unlike a lot of teams that play in the Super Bowl and then have to pay up to maintain their core roster, the Bengals are still getting to live in ‘Superstar QB on a Rookie Contract’ fantasy land. They haven’t had to pay Burrow. They haven’t had to pay Tee Higgins. They haven’t had to pay Ja’Marr Chase. All of that will change shortly, but while still operating in this space, they went out and did exactly what they were supposed to this offseason: Invest in the offensive line. The best and worst part about the Bengals offensive line being so poor last season is that it was blatantly obvious for anyone with even a modicum of football knowledge to see where their deficiency lied. So … they spent. Signed Cowboys OT La’El Collins to a three year contract. Signed Bucs OG Alex Cappa to a four year contract. Signed OC Ted Karras to a three year contract. Are any of these guys *superstars*? No. But are they upgrades? Yes.
Defensively they franchise tagged budding star safety Jessie Bates who played a huge role in their run last postseason. They bring back BJ Hill to man down the middle of the defensive line and spent their first three picks in the draft this past year on defensive selections.
This team will score. You’d expect them to have gained confidence with how they played down the stretch at times, particularly in the second half against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game, defensively. This team is still ascending.
Pick #8: Kansas City Chiefs - AFC West (JI)
Had a feeling before the draft that this would be the last division taken. The Chiefs feel like the obvious pick. The Chargers are the sexy, fun pick. I would’ve been content having either team on my side heading into this season … but if given the choice, I’m siding with Patrick Mahomes.
Since Patrick Mahomes became the starter four seasons ago:
12 wins. Lost to the Patriots in the AFC Championship.
12 wins. Won the Super Bowl.
14 wins. Lost the Super Bowl.
12 wins. Lose the AFC Championship.
Until proven otherwise, what do you get when you have Patrick Mahomes leading your team? AT LEAST an appearance in the conference title game. I don’t think I’ll ever forget the rest of my life the back and forth between him and Allen in the AFC Divisional Round game last year. Truly indescribable levels of play.
I want you to do something. I want you to go watch that video I just linked. And then I want you to sit here and realize, just like I am as I’m typing it out, that I leave this draft with … BOTH … of those guys??? AND the guy who ended up winning the AFC? ALL on my side?
Yes they have to replace Tyreek Hill. Yes I believe in their ability to do so. Will JuJu Smith-Schuster or Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Skyy Moore individually make up for Tyreek’s production? No. Will all three of them collectively make up for Tyreek’s production?? I’m going to vote yes. There’s a chance this offense becomes more dynamic in his departure due to the higher quantity of targets Mahomes now has the ability to throw to. Am I saying that WILL happen? No. But it’s without a doubt in play.
Ultimately it comes down to what I put at the beginning of this section. This is a WINS pool. Patrick Mahomes has won a minimum of 13 games (when you include the playoffs) in every single season he’s participated in. This isn’t the first time everyone has been fired up about the Chargers entering a season. Their most recent win totals dating back seven years: 9 - 7 - 5 - 12 - 9 - 5 - 4.
I’ll take my guaranteed wins to the bank and happily go about my day.
David’s AFC West Pick: Los Angeles Chargers
I’m convinced this pick will either win or lose this competition for me. But at the end of the day..I just want to root for the Chargers this season!
It’s hard to believe they didn’t make the playoffs last year, with the singular Justin Herbert leading an elite offense. And that was only Year 2 for Herbert, he is going to get even better!! I love the infrastructure they’ve built around him. The offensive line is really coming together, led by standouts Rashawn Slater and Corey Linsley, and the addition of 1st round rookie Zion Johnson. We know the skill position band is good, with Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams providing Herbert a versatile group to attack defenses with.
Missing the playoffs came down to two things last year: miserable performance on defense and poor coaching. The defense ranked 26th in overall efficiency, but I’m not sure any team made more improvements on one side of the ball this offseason. They added Khalil freaking Mack to pair with Joey Bosa, which will be a devastating combo to opposing QBs. They added multiple high-impact guys in the secondary, including lockdown corner JC Jackson and Bryce Callahan in the slot. Derwin James is a jack-of-all-trades who just secured a big bag. The run game was a major weakness last year, and they brought in nose tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day from the Rams to plug that gap. I love how they project on this side of the ball. I could see them jumping from a bottom 7 unit to a top 5 one if they’re healthy.
Brandon Staley’s coaching strategy was well-documented last year. He made several decisions that ended up negatively impacting their chances of winning games, but there’s a silver lining: at least he made aggressive mistakes. There’s hope that he can learn from his mistakes as a rookie head coach, while continuing to take calculated chances to keep the ball in the possession of his incredible offense.
Their schedule is predicted to be the 13th most difficult in the league, but I think it’s a bit overrated on paper outside of the brutal division. Their road game at Arizona may not be as tricky if the Cardinals fall apart, and they host the Dolphins and Titans in two winnable games. One thing to always be wary of with the Chargers though: they don’t have a home-field advantage. Opposing fans have been invading their stadium ever since they moved from San Diego.
I’ll make a bold proclamation: this is the most talented roster in the entire NFL. Winning the division will be a dogfight, but they have the ability to knock the Chiefs off their perch. If they can do that, then they can do anything, including hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
As always - thanks for reading! We went long with this one and our college football wins pool, but all content throughout the course of the season will be more easy to digest. Football is back! We’re fired up (if you haven’t been able to tell). This is going to be fun.
Check back in this space weekly for an update on how these drafts are trending, weekly thoughts on the college football weekend that was and NFL gambling picks.