The 3-Point Stance (Volume 3)
NFL mediocrity, Jayson Tatum's vendetta against Charlotte, and Davey does live sports!
Welcome to the 3-Point Stance. Every few weeks, I’ll write about 3 sports stories and/or experiences at the top of my mind. If you like what you’re reading, hit the subscribe button to send these columns straight to your inbox!
This NFL Season is Mediocre. But Why?
Once the GOAT agrees, it’s no longer a hot take to say the quality of the NFL has been poor this season. Forgive my hyperbole, but from a talent and execution standpoint, this season features the lowest quality of play I can remember. And yet, I can’t help but question if I’m overreacting. There’s always going to be drops in crucial situations and poor clock management. The Los Angeles Chargers aren’t going anywhere. So what distinguishes this season as particularly lackluster?
Before digging into this question, it’s important to note that professional football has undergone radical changes over the years. Pick a game to watch from the 1970s and it'll seem like a different sport. Back then, the passing game accentuated the run game. In the modern day, that philosophy has completely flipped. These strategic changes have had a massive impact on offensive production over time. To illustrate, see the consistent increase in a team's average yards per game since the 1970s:
1970s: 294.42
1980s: 326.91
1990s: 313.88
2000s: 323.64
2010s: 346.39
2020s (before 2023): 347.57
From a statistical standpoint, it's difficult to say the NFL is the worst it's ever been when teams couldn’t even average 300 yards a game in the 70’s. It’s fitting that a franchise like the Pittsburgh Steelers would dominate such a futile era. But even more interesting is the recent spike in yardage per game from the 2000s to the 2010s. This is often directly attributed to the major NFL rule changes implemented in 2009 and 2010 to:
1) Outlaw low hits on the quarterback, as a result of Tom Brady’s season-ending ACL tear in 2008.
2) Expand and more strictly enforce punishment for hitting defenseless receivers.
With quarterbacks no longer needing to fear catastrophic hits to their lower body, and receivers freely roaming the middle of the field without being decapitated by Ray Lewis, the modern day pass-first offense was born. Offensive production has hit record highs as a result.
This analysis isn't breaking new ground. Unless you born with an iPad in your hand, you understand that the game we’re watching today is different from even the mid-2000s. But I reiterate these significant changes to make one distinction: it’s unfair to compare to the 2023 NFL season to prior eras. Only when we compare this season to recent NFL history can we draw informative conclusions. With that in mind, I present you 3 points (don’t you love that symmetry?) about the 2023 NFL season:
Average scoring is on pace for its lowest total since 2009.
Average yards per game are at their lowest since 2008.
Average yards per play (a good barometer for how efficiently teams are moving the ball) is at its lowest point since 2005 (another wretched offensive season in which, you guessed it, the Pittsburgh Steelers won the Super Bowl).
The data confirms what we’re all seeing. This is the lowest quality of NFL football since the major rule changes of the late 2000s that changed the sport we know and love. And I believe there's a fundamental reason for this: we are in a major transitionary period for starting quarterbacks. On one hand, we’ve seen the retirement of many 15+ year starters in recent years. Guys like Peyton and Eli Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Big Ben, and Phil Rivers. Staples on our televisions for the entire century so far, but no longer suiting up on Sundays.
Mike Sando wrote a great piece before the season about this season’s NFL starters being the youngest crop in 60 years. For context, we’ve only had 57 Super Bowls. Sando broke the starting QBs into 4 age tiers (Years 1-4, Years 5-8, Years 9-12, and Years 13+), and one group sticks out like a sore thumb when it comes to quality. It’s not the youngest group, where players like Joe Burrow, CJ Stroud, Brock Purdy, Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert have played like franchise stars. It’s not the 5-8 year group that contains past and future MVPs in Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. It’s the 9-12 year group that’s fallen off a cliff: Derek Carr (washed), Geno Smith (mediocre), Jimmy Garoppalo (benched), Russell Wilson (semi-washed), Ryan Tannehill (benched), and Kirk Cousins (season-ending injury).
The NFL lost its old guard, and in its place was supposed to be a new class of veterans to carry the torch. Instead, that veteran class evaporated. Andrew Luck and Cam Newton were set to lead the 9-12 year group, but their careers ended prematurely. Only Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford remain from the old guard (Year 13+ starters), and Rodgers' season lasted 5 seconds. In the process, we went from watching quarterbacks with over a decade of experience on Sunday, who have seen all there is to see about how NFL defenses will attack them, to a younger generation that’s been thrust into the limelight while they're still developing.
As noted earlier, many of these younger QBs have shown great potential! But only Mahomes has proven to be an all-timer thus far. Despite the mediocrity of this season, I remain bullish on the future of the league. These younger QB classes will continue to mature, and an exciting crop of college quarterbacks are set to enter the league soon. But the present quality of play we’re witnessing has been years in the making. It'd be foolish to expect it to improve overnight. In other words, prepare yourself for another Steelers Super Bowl.
*All stats per Pro-football-reference.com
Jayson Tatum vs. the Hornets
As a sports fan, one of my favorite things is when a player has a vendetta against a particular franchise. That “I have a very particular set of skills” type thirst for revenge. Our latest example of this phenomenon makes little sense. We have Jayson Tatum, born in St. Louis, Missouri and playing for the Boston Celtics. And we have the Charlotte Hornets. When you think of the history NBA, I doubt bad blood between the Celtics and Hornets comes to mind. When you think of the United States, I doubt you correlate Missouri with North Carolina very often. So why does Jayson Tatum want to destroy the Charlotte Hornets so much?
It doesn’t sound menacing. It sounds like he wanted to pull out the most random NBA franchise he could think of, and the Hornets stepped up to provide that answer. But I’m telling you, the guy has it out for the city of Charlotte. His last 6 games against the Hornets:
45 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists
41 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists
51 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists
33 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists
35 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists
44 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists
That comes out to a calm and cool average of 41.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game. Tatum is basically the greatest player of all time…when he faces the Charlotte Hornets. Speaking of the GOAT, Michael Jordan averaged his highest career point total against the Portland Trail Blazers. Here’s the stat-line from his best 6-game stretch against them: 42.5 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 7.5 assists. Tatum may as well be Michael Jordan...when he faces the Charlotte Hornets.
Intriguingly, it’s the parallel with Jordan that might offer reasoning into Tatum’s specific interest in dominating Charlotte. Tatum is part of Jordan Brand and Jordan used to own the Hornets, before selling the team prior to this season. But even with MJ out of commission, Tatum still erupted for 31 points at halftime in his yearly desecration of the Queen City. What we won’t mention is the final result of that game, because it doesn’t matter (and it didn't make me happy). The beef between Tatum and Charlotte goes beyond basketball. It’s one of the world’s greatest mysteries. Tune in on April 1st, 2024 to see what the next chapter has in store.
*All stats per Statmuse.com
Live Sports Davey (Columbia, SC)
Live sports update! I was back in Columbia a couple weekends ago visiting friends and taking in the South Carolina-Kentucky SEC football clash. It was an awesome weekend in what’s become my second (college football) home. I had my first Tin Roof experience on Friday Night. Great spot for live music. I came to the realization as the band played “Whiskey Glasses” that Morgan Wallen's a big time sad boy. So your girl left, and your response is to whine about how she may be with someone else, while lining and up and knocking down countless shots of whiskey? Get it together my guy! Great song though..
The Columbia farmer’s market on Saturday morning was awesome. Felt like the first time I’d actually had the chance to take in the city, rather than bounce from bar to bar. The local cold brew had me feeling high on life. One guy was playing Taylor Swift songs on Autotune with a violin. Bonus points for creativity, homie! I also found my new favorite watering hole in the area: The Original D’s Restaurant and Bar. I could have eaten their Firecracker Shrimp all day.
The game itself was a predictably forgettable matchup between a 4-win team and a 6-win team. The light show was spectacular as usual, and the Gamecocks used the crowd's energy to grab an early lead. The middle portion of the game was brutal. Every 10 throws, Devin Leary will rip an NFL-level throw and you wonder if he can be one of those guys. Then the other 10 throws remind you why he's not. Somehow the home team won, even though South Carolina was allergic to moving the ball for 3 quarters (a trait that came back to bite them against Clemson).
The most memorable moment was at halftime, where they honored each of the school’s athletic teams, all the way from basketball to swimming and diving. Most of the teams drew a small reaction, like a kid walking at graduation to only his family’s cheers. Women’s Basketball got a huge one, because duh. But the biggest reaction was for Men’s Tennis. Why, you may ask? I'm pretty sure it's because only one person was representing the team. The poor guy needed help from the team next to him just to hold up the wide banner signifying the team he was a part of. Does USC really only have one tennis player on scholarship? Or maybe I misread the whole thing, and this kid is the next Carlos Alcaraz.
Until next time. Cocks by 90.
Wins Pool Update
My friend John Iezzi and I take part in what we call a Wins Pool for almost every major American sport. The rules are simple: we each draft a certain number of teams and we tally up all wins across the entire season, including the postseason. Whoever’s group of teams wins more games is the victor. And yes, cash prizes are involved. In this section, I’ll provide an update on where things stand with our ongoing competitions.
College Football
Team David: 113
Team John: 110
NFL
Team David: 52
Team John: 51
My college football squads missed a huge opportunity last Saturday to pull away in the competition. Frankly, it could have been worse. While John’s teams landed huge road wins (Kentucky over Louisville, Wisconsin over Minnesota, Florida State over Florida), I had to survive the Iron Bowl Miracle and Oklahoma State’s huge comeback vs. BYU. Heading into conference championship weekend, John and I have several head-to-head matchups:
Oregon (David) vs. Washington (John)
Michigan (John) vs. Iowa (David)
Texas (John) vs. Oklahoma State (David)
Tack on a win for John in the Michigan game. No chance Iowa pulls that off. Right? Right!!?? I think Oregon is better than Washington, despite their head-to-head loss earlier this season. Vegas agrees as the Ducks are nearly double digit favorites. Texas should beat Oklahoma State as well, but the Longhorns have played with their food a bit this season. All things considered, I should head into bowl season tied at worst, or up 5 or 6 in a best case scenario. Every single one of our teams made a bowl this year, so this is set to go down to the wire.
On the NFL side…I’m pissed. I’m getting crushed by injuries, and it might cost me. I’m down Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins, and both the Bengals and Vikings dropped miserable games this week. Games they win comfortably with healthy starting quarterbacks. I’m still holding on to a 1-win lead, but what felt like a comfortable margin is now going to be a battle into the playoffs.
That’s the Wins Pool for you. All I can do is let the Sports Gods decide for me. In 20 years, I’ll either have a house down payment from John, or I’ll be driving his kids to college as I pay for their room and board. Theres’ no in-between.