The 3-Point Stance (Volume 4)
Michigan climbs the mountain (and why it's good for college football), NBA overachievers, and Speedy Claxton alpha dogged me at Cameron Indoor.
Michigan’s Title Represents a Changing College Football Landscape
I’ll admit it. I didn’t take Michigan seriously heading into the College Football Playoff. Yes, they were the 1 seed. Yes, they sat atop Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings for a large part of the season. But we’d seen this story before. This time of the year, recruiting power is more important than a ranking in a subjective poll. When Michigan drew Alabama, the greatest recruiting powerhouse the sport has ever seen, in the College Football Playoff, I figured that sealed their fate. It seemed even the Michigan players shared my sentiment.
But then the teams lined up and it became immediately clear that Michigan could hang. Actually, they could much more than hang. They dictated the game physically against Alabama. You never see that. It didn’t take a fluke or a miracle for them to win the game. They made critical mistakes that handed free points to their opponent, and they still overcame it. That’s what made it so convincing to me. The national championship game followed a similar script. Michigan dominated large stretches, but Washington hung around and was within arm’s reach in the 4th quarter. Once again, Michigan asserted their dominance when it came time to win. After Michigan’s playoff failures the last two seasons, I assumed they couldn’t compete at the highest level. I was dead wrong, and it’s forced me to change the way I think about College Football.
Forgive me for becoming jaded this past decade during championship season. I became accustomed to the fun, upstart contender getting its doors blown off by Alabama or Georgia in the playoff. If your program wasn’t recruiting at a top 5 level, you had no real chance of winning a title. One exception in the College Football Playoff era was Clemson, but even their program-building model felt farfetched. If you merely recruited at a top 10 to 15 level, you could close the gap by landing a generational college QB like Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence. Hate to break it to you, but those guys don’t choose Iowa State on signing day.
But now we have another exception in this Michigan team. A model that will be lofty to replicate, but feels more attainable than previous examples. Michigan's didn’t need a generational stud at QB to win. JJ McCarthy, a solid if not spectacular pro prospect, was enough. Michigan didn’t close the recruiting gap with the SEC powerhouses: the average ranking of Michigan’s last four recruiting classes was 12th. They didn’t fast-track the construction of their roster through the transfer portal: the average ranking of their last 4 transfer classes was 48th. This was a title built on establishing a culture of resilience and toughness. They took their postseason lumps and improved each year until they finally reached the mountaintop. It takes a special coach like Jim Harbaugh to pull this off, but there are lots of special coaches around the country.
I understand this wasn’t a Cinderella story. Michigan is still a blue-blood College Football program historically. But strip away the name and you’ll see a team-building process that should give hope to programs around the country. You CAN build a championship team without recruiting at the highest level, even if you don’t have a once in a generation prospect at QB. A cohesive infrastructure DOES matter. In the right year, it can even overcome deficits that once seemed impossible.
Of course, there’s a giant elephant in the room. Michigan’s cheating scandal will be inextricably linked to this championship. It’s impossible to precisely quantify the competitive advantage this may have provided over the last several seasons. However, theres one thing I can quantify with certainty. When all eyes were on Michigan this season, in a scenario where it would have been unthinkable for any devious schemes to continue, they still beat Penn State, Ohio State, Alabama and Washington. At th end of the day, that’s College Football for you. Even a championship that represents an overwhelming positive for the sport has to come with a major controversy. If you don’t like chaos, you’re following the wrong sport to begin with.
Starting next season, College Football will never be the same. The postseason will include 12 teams rather than 4. The Pac-12 no longer exists, and the other major conferences have been forever altered through realignment. But perhaps one change stands above the rest, and it was signaled on Monday night. National Championships don’t have to be won on Signing Day.
*Recruiting stats per 247Sports
The Most Surprising NBA Teams at the Halfway Mark
We’re almost halfway through the 2023-24 NBA season. It’s time to throw out whatever preseason expectations you held. They no longer matter. We have a large enough sample size at this point to determine that a team’s record is a true reflection of their quality. Today, I’ll be highlighting three teams that have greatly exceeded expectations thus far. This determination is based on a comparison between a team’s current projected win total (per Neil Paine’s NBA forecast) and their preseason Vegas over/under projection. Amongst today’s group, we have a playoff team making the leap into the elite tier, a budding potential powerhouse that’s ahead of schedule, and a recent cellar dweller making a surprising push for the playoffs.
Atop the Western Conference, But Are They For Real?
Minnesota Timberwolves (12.8 projected wins above expectation)
Preseason Over/Under Projection: 44.5 wins
Current Projected Win Total: 57.3 wins
It may have taken longer than expected, but Minnesota is delivering on the vision they foresaw when trading for Rudy Gobert in the summer of 2022. The Timberwolves, yes the freaking TIMBERWOLVES, have the best record in the Western Conference at 26-11. They feature the league’s best defense by a considerable margin. They’re over 2 points better than the 2nd ranked Rockets in defensive rating. They’re first in effective field goal percentage allowed at 51%, over a full percentage point higher than the 2nd ranked Oklahoma City Thunder. They’re fouling at the 8th lowest rate in the league, a major improvement from last year’s foul-happy team that finished 26th in the same metric. Gobert is the central force, the engine that provides the foundation for these improvements. His on/off stats on defense tell the story:
The Timberwolves allow 8.5 points less per 100 possessions on average when Gobert is on the court vs. off.
Timberwolves opponents shoot 4.2% worse from the floor when Gobert is on the court vs. off.
But he’s not the only reason they’ve made this significant leap. Look across their rotation and every contributor is a positive on the defensive end. From Gobert, to Anthony Edwards, to Mike Conley, to a rejuvenated Karl Towns, all the way down to Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels. Other than Conley, every player on the roster is big, long and athletic relative to their positions. They rank in the top 5 in shooting percentage allowed from all major areas of the floor (rim, mid-range, and 3-point line). Your favorite team’s superstar isn’t safe, regardless of the position they play.
As their defense has ascended, the Timberwolves offense has also gone from bad to functional. Anthony Edwards is continuing to mature into a true franchise player, capable of lifting up an offense almost by himself. Much like Gobert on defense, Minnesota’s offense craters without Edwards on the court.
The Timberwolves score 8.7 points more per 100 possessions on average when Edwards is on the court vs. off.
The Timberwolves shoot 5.8% better from the floor when Edwards is on the court vs. off.
The latter stat is the most telling sign that Edwards has elevated to superstar status. He’s not an isolation scorer putting up empty numbers. He’s lifting the entire team’s efficiency through his mere presence on the court. The T-Wolves haven’t had a guy like this since Kevin Garnett. As with any team that lacks a proven track record, we’re going to learn a lot about this group in the upcoming playoffs. But for them to have nudged into the championship picture at all is a massive success.
A Budding Superteam
Oklahoma City Thunder (12 projected wins above expectation)
Preseason Over/Under Projection: 44.5 wins
Current Projected Win Total: 56.5 wins
Everyone loved the potential of this Thunder team in the preseason. They nearly made the playoffs last year on the back of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s leap to superstardom. They had a promising young supporting cast led by Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey. And they came into this season adding a seemingly can’t-miss prospect in Chet Holmgren, who missed the entirety of last season. My only point of skepticism was their youth. The process for a young team to evolve into a contender typically takes time. Were they going to be ready to handle legitimate expectations during the grind of NBA season?
With a 26-11 start to the season, tied for first in the Western Conference, signs are pointing to yes! Compared to last season, the Thunder have improved in every imaginable way. Shai has elevated his game even further, vaulting into the MVP conversation. If you told me he was the best guard in the world, I’d have a hard time arguing. Even more importantly, Chet Holmgren has been everything the Thunder could have hoped for, raising their ceiling on both ends of the floor. Take any major team offensive category and you’ll see marked improvement (league ranking in parentheses):
Gilgeous-Alexander has taken an already unstoppable part of his game and somehow perfected it even further. He’s shooting a deadly 52% on the season from mid-range, up from 46% last year. Isaiah Joe is cementing his place as a perimeter marksman. Even Lu Dort is knocking down perimeter shots! Their other rookie addition, Cason Wallace, has been an incredibly efficient bench guard right out of the gate (97th percentile in points per shot attempt). And Chet has provided the secondary creation they sorely missed last season. Even as a rookie he ranks in the 82nd percentile in points per shot attempt for his position. If he’s going to hit a rookie wall, we’ve seen no signs of it yet. And that’s before we get into his impact on a greatly improved defense:
Holmgren’s spearheading the league’s best interior defense as a rookie. Already he ranks in the 94th percentile in Block %. The guy is an absolute machine in the paint. The Thunder nailed their return on the Paul George trade. Then they nailed seemingly every draft pick they made for years. As a result, they’re ahead of schedule. It will be fascinating to see if they push their war chest of assets on the table now to go for a championship. They’re young, but you never know how long your window will be open. The time might be now.
From Pushovers to Playoff Contenders
Houston Rockets (9.9 projected wins above expectation)
Preseason Over/Under Projection: 31.5 wins
Current Projected Win Total: 41.4 wins
The Rockets won only 22 games last season, so there was an expectation for improvement based on their preseason projection of 31.5 wins. They added 2 tough, playoff-experienced veterans in Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, and their young core was getting a year older. The only direction to go was up. What’s been surprising is the size of their improvement. While they’re projected to finish with 41 wins, they currently hold the point differential (+2.9) of a team that would be expected to win 48 games. This has been a legitimately solid team, largely due to two factors.
Ime Udoka is THAT DUDE
The Rockets defense has made an almost unthinkable improvement year-over-year:
Part of this improvement has been good fortune, as they’re allowing a league low 33.5% from 3, which is bound for some regression towards the mean. But they’ve improved in more projectable areas like protecting the rim, where opponents are shooting 65.6% this year, compared to 69.6% last year. In general, replacing an erratic player like Kevin Porter Jr. with the competency of Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Jeff Green goes a long way. But their head coach Ime Udoka is owed the ultimate credit. Udoka proved his chops in coaching a historically great defense in Boston that nearly won the 2022 NBA title. Now he’s instilled that same toughness in Houston.
One of their young players has made the leap to stardom, just not the one you’d expect.
The expectation was that one of Houston’s recent top-3 draft picks in Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. would make a significant leap this season. But it’s Alperen Sengun that has become the young face of the franchise. Sengun is still developing as an efficient scorer (42nd percentile in points per shot attempt), but he’s evolved into an incredible, Jokic-lite playmaker. He’s in the 95th percentile in Assist % for his position, and has become the fulcrum that the Rockets offense relies on to function. With Sengun on the floor, the Rockets:
Average 5.2 more points per 100 possessions.
Shoot 3.4% better from the field
Average a 2.9% lower turnover rate.
They score more points, at a more efficient rate, all while protecting the basketball more securely. Seems like a positive impact! Sengun is now a vital piece for the future of this franchise. After the hopelessness of the post-Harden years so far, the Rockets have a future roadmap to build upon.
*All stats from Cleaning the Glass
Davey Does Live Sports (Speedy Claxton Edition)
I checked off a sports bucket list item recently, making my first trip to Cameron Indoor Stadium for a Duke basketball game. Shoutout to my fellow (and apparently retired?) writing colleague John Iezzi (and his wife!) for the incredible seats. Right at midcourt, 2 rows back from the scorer’s table. You cannot find a better spot to take in a basketball game.
The arena lived up to its reputation. It’s not just small. It’s “I can see every person’s face distinctly, no matter where they’re sitting in the gym” level small. But it’s clearly an advantage for the home team. The student section is right on top of you. Banners are hanging from every inch of the ceiling. Duke was playing Hofstra, and you could tell the Hofstra players were fired up to even be playing in a place with so much history.
Speaking of Hofstra, before I even got to my seat I had a lovely run-in with their head coach. I arrived at the game during the 1st TV timeout, and security guided us onto the court briefly to get to our seats. This path led us straight between the Hofstra bench and the coaches huddle. And of course as I’m walking through, the head coach understandably decides to walk back towards his bench and, you know, coach his team. And of course right as he makes this decision, there’s me, right in between him and his players. Frankly, I had the angle on the guy. If we both walk at a regular pace I beat him to the spot pretty easily and we both go our separate ways. But nope. Coach decides to speed up his pace and completely cuts me off, giving me a nasty “get out of my way” mean mug to boot!
All I can do is shrug it off and get to my seat. At the time I wasn’t even sure if it was an assistant or the actual head coach. Then the same man who alpha’d me starts prancing the sideline as the game resumes. “So it’s the head coach”, I thought. Wondering who he was, I do a quick Google search and what do I find:
No…it cannot be. Speedy Claxton. Until this moment, I wasn’t sure if Speedy Claxton was a basketball player name that my friends made up, or a person of actual existence. I can now confirm that he is in fact, real. I can also confirm that he:
Played at Hofstra in college and was the 20th overall pick in the 2000 NBADraft.
Averaged a solid 9.3 points, 4.3 assists, and 2.5 rebounds in his NBA career.
Was a legitimate contributor to the 2003 San Antonio Spurs that won the NBA Championship.
Is absolutely jacked. I’m guessing this guy presses 300 lbs. on the bench as easily as I can pick up a grocery bag.
But most importantly, he alpha dogged me in a way that I’m still taking time to recover from. It all happened so fast, but he left no doubt in the universe that Speedy Claxton > David Lurie. And don’t you ever forget it.
Wins Pool Update
My friend John Iezzi and I take part in what we call a Wins Pool for almost every major American sport. The rules are simple: we each draft a certain number of teams and we tally up all wins across the entire season, including the postseason. Whoever’s group of teams wins more games is the victor. And yes, cash prizes are involved. In this section, I’ll provide an update on where things stand with our ongoing competitions.
College Football
Team David: 120
Team John: 120
NFL
Team David: 78
Team John: 71
That’s a wrap on the 2023-24 College Football pool aaaaand.. we tied. Well, technically John “wins” by tiebreaker since he had Michigan, the national champs. But let the record show, his group of teams did NOT win more games than my group. As far as I’m concerned, I remain undefeated in the College Football competition. Do I lose some sleep at night, knowing that I win outright if Mario Cristobal kneels the ball? Nah. Well, maybe. I f&*king hate you Mario Cristobal!!
On the NFL side, I have a sizeable lead heading into the playoffs, but the games do matter. I have the Chiefs, Dolphins, 49ers and Cowboys. John has the Steelers, Bills, Packers and Eagles. If the 49ers and Cowboys take care of business in even one home playoff game each, it’s over. If the Packers take down the Cowboys this weekend and the 49ers next weekend, then this will get very interesting.
another banger!
great write up. We need to get that "other guy" out of retirement. Did he even start?