The Dominance of the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Best 5-Year Runs in NFL History
A new approach to "Dynasty" talk
A few weeks ago, the Kansas City Chiefs won their 2nd Super Bowl trophy in the last 4 years. This was significant not only because titles are significant, but because they've now done it twice. And when a team climbs the mountain twice in a short span of time, it’s required that we have the “dynasty” discussion. The problem is, everyone seems to have different criteria for what makes a dynasty. How many years does a team need to dominate for? How many championships do they need to win? Ask two people and you’ll get two different answers.
To me, the professional sports landscape is more conducive to dominant 5-year stretches. If you need proof, take a look at the contract rules for the major sports leagues:
In the NFL, rookie contracts have a maximum length of 5 years. If a team drafts a great quarterback, that means 5 years of control at below-market value, and 5 years to stack the surrounding personnel. After the 5 years is up, they retool and build for a new era.
In the NBA, the maximum contract length for a free agent is…you guessed it. 5 years. And based on recent developments, many players don't seem interested in honoring those full 5 years.
Which brings me back to the Chiefs. Is the dynasty question even the right one to be asking? I’m more inclined to assess their recent run of success through this 5-year prism. If you're still not buying the 5-year run idea, guess how many years Patrick Mahomes has been the Chiefs starting quarterback. Do I even need to say it?
To analyze the best half-decade runs in NFL history, I relied upon the least subjective criteria of all: the data. I evaluated every NFL team for every season dating back to 1981, which is as far back as Football Outsiders’ advanced metrics appear to go. I then scored each individual season during that timeframe based the following criteria:
Regular Season Winning Percentage
How teams performed in the regular season matters for this exercise, even if they didn't win a championship. To create a score for winning percentage, I documented each team’s regular season record all the way back to 1981. I then created unique groups for every winning percentage tier. To illustrate further, every 13-3 teams fell into one group, and every 3-13 team into another. There were 46 unique groups in all, and I labeled each of them with a points total in ascending order. Every winless team resided in the first group and received 1 point. The 2007 New England Patriots were in the last group and received 46 points for their undefeated regular season.
DVOA
This was the "advanced stats" part of the scoring formula. While regular season record is informative, the underlying numbers can paint a broader picture of how dominant a unit was. DVOA measures a team’s efficiency on a per-play basis. Using Football Outsiders, I grabbed the Total DVOA Rank and Weighted DVOA Rank (adjusted for schedule difficulty) for every team in the dataset. I then averaged the two together to create a ‘Mixed DVOA’ metric. I then created 63 unique groups based on each team's Mixed DVOA ranking. Teams in the lowest DVOA group received 1 point, while teams with the highest DVOA group received 63 points.
Playoff Rounds Advanced
No team wins the championship every single season in the NFL, but consistently winning playoff games goes a long way here. I awarded 10 points for every playoff round a team advanced past. If a team earned a first-round bye, that counts as an automatic playoff victory. To win the Super Bowl, you have to advance through 4 rounds, so champions received 40 points. Playoff teams that lost in the Wild Card Round received 0 points.
Championships
If we're talking greatness, then titles are paramount. I awarded Super Bowl-winning seasons with an additional 50 points.
Once the season scores were complete, I used a running total calculation to create the 5-season scores. I scored each franchise from 1981-1985, 1982-1986, 1983-1987 and so on. From there, I sorted those 5-year totals to build the rankings you’re about to read through.
Note: If a franchise had overlapping 5-year runs, then only the highest rated period qualified for the list. For example, the 2011-2015 Patriots were ineligible despite a high score, as they overlapped with a more successful 2014-2018 Patriots run.
And with that, enough explaining. It’s time for the rankings. Which franchise had the greatest 5-year run of them all? Where did this Chiefs iteration end up? We start at the top..
1) 2014-2018 Patriots (787 Points)
Surprise! It's the Patriots. It was always going to be the Patriots. The Brady-era Patriots are the rare team that we all collectively agree deserve the dynasty label. It’s a bullet-proof resume. You care about total championships? Their 6 Super Bowls during the Brady era match or exceed the number of Super Bowls any other franchise has won in their entire history. You care about longevity? They won the Super Bowl in 2002 and 2019.
What’s a little surprising to me is that this specific 5-year period graded out as their most dominant run. No Patriots team during this era felt as dominant as the 2007 team. You could make a strong argument that the 2018-19 Patriots team that won the Super Bowl was the weakest champion in franchise history. They only went 11-5 that season and rated as the league’s 7th best team in DVOA. Only the 2016-17 team ranked 1st in DVOA, and Atlanta had them dead to rights in the Super Bowl.
What separates this 5-year run is consistency. 3 Super Bowl wins, 1 Super Bowl loss to the Eagles, and 1 AFC Championship Game loss to the Broncos. Two 12-win seasons, one 13-win season, one 14-win season, and a championship in their “down” 11-5 season. Not bad.
What I’ll always remember about this era of Patriots football is how easily they could have come up empty-handed. The Malcom Butler interception to seal the Seattle victory. Eking out an overtime victory over Patrick Mahomes in the 2018-19 AFC Championship. The 28-3 comeback vs the Falcons. When we talk about “clutch” teams, the conversation should start with this group. Time and time again they delivered in tight moments when no other team would have. In doing so, they secured not only the greatest run in NFL history, but arguably in the history of professional sports.
2) 1992-1996 Cowboys (780 Points)
I was born in 1993. From what I've seen, the Dallas Cowboys franchise plain old SUCKS. They haven’t made a single NFC Championship appearance since 1995 and have a whopping 4 total playoff wins in that timeframe. It’s been hard to fathom why the Cowboys are the object of so much obsession. But after researching them for this article, I’ve come to a new conclusion: I get it.
Holy smokes were they dominant in the early ‘90s. 3 Super Bowl victories in 4 years. My favorite stat: Across those 3 championship runs, they won every playoff game by double digits. Every single one. 6 Hall of Famers suited up for “America’s Team” during this run: Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin, Deion Sanders, Larry Allen, and Charles Haley.
The advanced metrics favor this Cowboys team over the 2014-18 Patriots, and it's not that close. Here’s the 5-year Mixed DVOA averages for both teams:
1992-96 Cowboys: 2.3
2014-18 Patriots: 4.6
So how did they end up in 2nd? The 1996 team only went 10-6 and lost in the Divisional round of the playoffs. The 2014-18 Patriots had no such slip-up. The peak 90’s Cowboys are the most dominant team assembled in the modern era. Alas, this is a longevity exercise, and the Patriots were slightly more inevitable year-to-year.
3) 2003-2007 Patriots (725 Points)
So inevitable, in fact, that a completely separate era of Patriots football that started 11 years prior also made the Top 3 of this list! Had the 2007 Patriots completed football nirvana and won the Super Bowl, they’d have jumped the Cowboys on this list (Somehow, they still wouldn’t have jumped the 2014-18 Pats). Instead, they "settled" for 2 Super Bowls in this era and an 18-1 2007 season that none of us will forget.
Interestingly enough, this 5-year run doesn’t include their 2001-02 Super Bowl. Their 9-7 2002 season and 10-6 2005 season held their score back during that time period. The 2001 team also rated on the low-end of NFL champions, with an 11-5 record and 10th-place ranking in Mixed DVOA. The 2003 and 2004 championship teams left no such doubt. They each sported 14-2 records and convincing AFC Championship victories over the 12-4 Colts and 15-1 Steelers.
Despite losing to Jake Plummer in 2005 and the Colts in the 2006 AFC Championship Game, this era had the 3 best Patriots teams there ever was. That's enough to seal their spot in the Top 3.
4) 2018-2022 Chiefs (724 Points)
And we have our answer on the Chiefs— we've all just witnessed one of the 5 most dominant runs in modern NFL history! It’s incredible to put things in that perspective, and we can all agree it’s felt special in the moment. They’ve won at least 12 games in every full season with Mahomes as the starter, along with 2 Super Bowls, 5 AFC Championship appearances, and 2 MVPs for the superhero quarterback.
They’re reminiscent of the Brady-led Patriots in a couple of ways. For starter’s, we’ve already seen them re-tool multiple times without affecting their performance. First it was rebuilding a broken offensive line after the 2020-21 Super Bowl disaster. Then it was letting Tyreek Hill go before this past season and still getting it done in the end. And secondly, they’ve been extremely clutch when it counts. Both their Super Bowl victories involved double digit comebacks, and their 2019-20 playoff run included a 24 point comeback vs. the Texans in the Divisional Round.
And the scariest part— behind an all-time great quarterback (who is only 27 years old) and all-time great coach, they’re only getting started.
5) 1986-1990 49ers (705 Points)
It’s a credit to how legendary the old-school 49ers were that I’m surprised they’re only in 5th place here. A simple exercise in perspective would be acknowledging that the Chiefs ranked higher on this list than that 49ers team. The Chiefs have a long way to go to match the scope of the 49er's dominance, but they're off to a similar start! Turning the attention to the Joe Montana/Jerry Rice juggernaut, this particular era comes out on top because they scored back-to-back championships
The 1988-89 championship team actually had the worst regular season record of this 5-year span at 10-6. The following year they were a complete wagon, winning the Super Bowl with a 14-2 record while rating as the league’s best team in DVOA. In totality, they were close to winning 4 straight Super Bowls. In 1987, they had a league-leading 13-2 record but the Vikings upset them in a divisional round shocker. They also went 14-2 in the 1990 season, but lost the NFC Championship Game on a last second field goal to a Giants team that went on to win the Super Bowl.
*Fun fact about yours truly— my dad made me watch that 1990 Giants victory on a grainy VHS tape when I was a kid.*
Despite these heights, the 2 early playoff losses during this period dropped them to 5th on this list. The 1986 season was also a strange outlier— their season ended with a 49-3 shellacking by a Super Bowl-winning Giants team in the Divisional Round.
6) 1992-1996 49ers (635 Points)
Out of every great franchise run on this list, only the 49ers were able to manage a quarterback transition in the midst of it. Joe Montana injured his elbow in the preseason before the 1991 season, paving the way for Steve Young to take the reins at quarterback. He struggled a bit in his first season as starter, but in 1992 he left no doubt that the good times would keep on rolling for San Francisco.
Young would go on to win the NFL MVP award in both the 1992 and 1994 seasons, and the performance of the 49ers followed suit. He led the Niners to a 14-2 record in 1992 before losing to the incredible Cowboys team that ranks 2nd on this list in the NFC Championship game. He once again led the 49ers to the NFC Championship in 1993, only to lose to that same Cowboys team once again. But he finally got over the hump in 1994, exacting revenge on the Cowboys in the NFC Championship game. He then destroyed the Chargers with a 6 TD performance in the Super Bowl (with Jerry Rice on the receiving end of 3 of them).
The 1994 season marked the peak for this iteration of the 49ers. Although they remained successful in the coming seasons, winning at least 11 games in every season through 1998, Young battled injuries throughout and they never got back to the Super Bowl. Their stellar advanced statistics profile (they ranked top 3 in DVOA during all 5 seasons) boosted their ranking despite the lack of a 2nd championship during this period.
7) 2004-2008 Steelers (634 Points)
The “Steel Curtain” era gets the most attention when talking about the Pittsburgh Steelers history, and deservedly so. 4 Super Bowls in 6 years is a run that no team on this list can match. Unfortunately, we don’t have advanced numbers to go back that far, excluding them from this ranking. On the bright side, they still get representation here with an underrated run from 2004-08, marked by 2 Super Bowl titles and a 15-1 juggernaut season in 2004.
They actually won more championships than the Patriots during this period, despite living in their shadow. New England did beat their 15-1 team in the 2004 AFC Championship, but they bounced back with a Super Bowl victory in 2005. They entered the AFC playoffs as the 6th and final Wild Card team that year (despite a solid 11-5 record), but won 3 straight games on the road before defeating a 13-win Seahawks team in the Super Bowl. In the words of Yoda: an underrated run, that was. They wrapped up their 5-year run with another Super Bowl in 2008, with a last-minute touchdown catch by Santonio Holmes sealing the deal.
I’ll remember these teams for their nasty defense more than anything. Troy Polamalu is one of the most memorable safeties I’ve ever watched, not only for his hair but for his explosiveness at all levels of the field. James Harrison was one of the scariest players in the game off the edge. Joey Porter was in his heyday at linebacker. Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t yet the prolific quarterback he’d become, but he was steady enough in big moments, especially in 2008, to guide them to 2 titles.
Despite winning two championships, they fall beneath the Steve Young 49ers on this list because their valleys were lower. They missed the playoffs in 2006, and lost in the Wild Card round in 2007. In an era defined by Patriots football, Steelers fans can take solace in knowing they still got to eat, even if only for a little bit.
8) 1984-1988 Bears (629 Points)
DAAAA BEARS!
The 1985 Bears team rated as the single best season of this entire analysis, going 15-1 in the regular season and rolling in the playoffs to a Super Bowl victory. The combined score of their 3 playoff games: 91-10. Absurd. They were also dominant in their encore season, with a 14-2 regular season and a number 1 ranking in DVOA, but Washington upset them in their first playoff game.
They never quite got back to those heights again. They lost their first playoff game (again to Washington) in 1987 as well. They actually hosted the 1988-89 NFC Championship game, but got smoked 28-3 by the 49ers. Still, they made the playoffs in all 5 seasons, played in 3 conference championship games, and fielded arguably the greatest individual team of all time. Given how the Bears franchise has fared since this run, I’m sure their fans are happy to see them make this list.
9) 1996-2000 Broncos (624 Points)
The story of this late-90’s Broncos squad might be my favorite of any team on this list. Imagine you’re John Elway. You’re the number 1 pick and you completely live up to the lofty expectations. You win an MVP. You’re a Pro Bowl mainstay. You even lead your team to 3 Super Bowls in 4 years in the late ‘80s. But the problem is, none of the matchups are even close. You lose 39-20 to the Giants. 42-10 to Washington the next year. 55-10 to the 49ers 2 years later. So close, yet so very very far.
Then you suffer through years of mediocrity. 1 measly playoff win over the next 6 seasons. Finally in 1996, you’re back on top. A 13-3 regular season, the 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. But then you lose to the freaking Jacksonville Jaguars in your first playoff game, a 9-7 team in the midst of their 2nd season in franchise history. At this point, you’ve got to be thinking it’s not meant to be. For all the accolades and achievements, a championship isn’t in the cards.
So what do John Elway and the Denver Broncos do? Win the next 2 Super Bowls, of course! It’s such a badass achievement, and when you consider the prior context it’s one of the all-time examples of perseverance in sports. And to think both titles came in the last 2 seasons Elway ever played. Epic.
That was pretty much it for the Broncos during this era. After Elway retired, they turned to Brian Griese and dropped from 14-2 to 6-10. They actually made the playoffs the next season with an 11-5 record but they lost in the Wild Card round. That little boost during the 2000 season was enough to get this team’s incredible story over the top and onto this list.
10) 1981-1985 49ers (621 Points)
The Montana/Young/Rice 49ers can’t lay claim to the most dominant 5-year run ever, but they’re the only team with 3 different iterations that qualified. That’s a testament to their unparalleled championship consistency over the course of 15 years. Even the Patriots had a 10 year drought between Super Bowls. From 1981-1995, the 49ers never went more than 5 seasons without a Super Bowl trophy.
This was the run where it all started. 1981 marked Joe Montana’s 3rd season as the team’s starter, and their first Super Bowl in franchise history. Despite the championship, the team had a Mixed DVOA rank of 10.5, so advanced metrics saw them as closer to an average team than a great team. The 1984 Super Bowl-winning team answered any questions about their greatness, going 15-1 and ranking 1st in DVOA. The 1984 team tied the 1985 Bears as the highest rated teams evaluated for this analysis.
The 1982 strike-shortened season held this 49ers iteration back, as they sputtered to a 3-6 record. They bounced back and made the NFC Championship in 1983, before laying waste to the league in 1984. They also made the playoffs in 1985, albeit with a 10-6 record, and lost in the Wild Card round.
If you’ve made it this far in the article, then you understand that the rest truly is history for this Niners bunch.
Honorable Mention
Here are a few teams that nearly qualified for the Top 10, with achievements significant enough to deserve a shout-out here.
1986-1990 Giants (620 Points)
This team defeated the 1986-90 49ers (who ranked 5th on this list) twice in the NFC Championship game on the way to two Super Bowls. However, they failed to win another playoff game in this era.
2003-2007 Colts (615 Points)
Behind one of Peyton Manning's apex runs, the Colts were a dominant regular season team, averaging over 12 wins across this 5-year period. They got over the hump in 2006 and won their first and only Super Bowl in franchise history. Every other playoff run ended with bitter disappointment during this time. Two blowout losses to the Patriots in 2003 and 2004, and 2 home playoff losses in the Divisional Round to the Steelers (the infamous Jerome Bettis fumble and Big Ben game-saving tackle) and Chargers, respectively.
2012-2016 Seahawks (610 Points)
In my opinion, this is top team across the honorable mention group. If Russell Wilson doesn’t throw an interception on the 1-yard line in the 2015 Super Bowl, this team wins back-to-back championships and would have placed 6th on this list. Instead they only won 1 Super Bowl in an era where they ranked 1st in DVOA for 4 straight seasons. It’s a game of inches..
1993-1997 Packers (605 Points)
Before allegedly embezzling funds from the state of Mississippi, we all remember how fun it was to watch Brett Favre’s gunslinger act. This 5-year period represented peak Favre. He won 3 straight MVPs from 1995-97 and made back to back Super Bowls in 1996 and 1997, winning in ’96.
1982-1986 Redskins (598 Points)
1987-1991 Redskins (591 Points)
Believe it or not, Washington, D.C. was once home to a great football franchise. So great in fact, that 2 separate eras over a 10-year period almost qualified for this list. The highs were awe-inspiring: 3 Super Bowl wins, 4 Super Bowl appearances. There were also enough seasons mixed in where they didn’t win a playoff game or missed the playoffs entirely that led to their exclusion from the top 10.
As always, SELL THE TEAM DAN SNYDER!!
That’s why I just tell people I was born in Dallas in the early 90s... lol