UPDATED: The Dominance of the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Best 5-Year Runs in NFL History
A new approach to "Dynasty" talk
A year ago, the Kansas City Chiefs won their 2nd Super Bowl title in 5 years. As a result, we started throwing around the “dynasty” term when discussing them. To me, it felt a bit premature. I understood the collective sentiment that more success was on the horizon for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. What I didn’t understand was awarding brownie points for what might happen in the future. And if there’s anything we know about sports, it’s that unpredictability is baked into its ethos.
Success in professional sports tends to come in short bursts. Even the Tom Brady-led New England Patriots, who twice won 3 championships within a 5-year period, had a 10-year gap between their 3rd and 4th championships. Key contributors parlay their championship success into larger contracts with other teams. They suffer drops in performance as they age. They retire and move on to different phases in their lives. Every dynasty that’s ever existed, in all walks of life, has evolved through several iterations. It’s baked into the very definition of the term “dynasty”:
“A line of hereditary rulers”
“A succession of people”
You’re probably aware that the Chiefs won their 3rd Super Bowl title in 5 years last Sunday. The dynasty talk will get louder and louder, but it’s important to remember that there are more iterations to come. A dynasty is not made up of one person, but a succession of them. Why resort to a label in the middle of a story before all of its characters have been introduced? I prefer to measure the success of the Chiefs thus far, and their current place in NFL history, without trying to project what those next chapters will look like.
Last year, I took the more narrow approach of assessing the greatest 5-Year Runs in NFL history, and the Chiefs place amongst that group. I concocted a formula that combined regular season performance, advanced statistics, and most importantly, postseason success. The Chiefs run from 2018-2022 ranked 4th on that list with only 2 Super Bowls in 5 years. After another championship triumph this past weekend, I think it’s high time we get to updating their place in these rankings.
Before getting into the rankings, here’s a quick refresher on the scoring system that I used to calculate them. Once again, apologies to the old heads that are undoubtedly smoking a pipe on their front porch and yelling at me about the exclusion of the Steel Curtain. One day, I shall take the time to update my formula and expand this analysis to cover the entire Super Bowl era. One day.
To measure the best half-decade runs in NFL history, I evaluated every NFL team for every season dating back to 1981, which is as far back as Football Outsiders’ advanced metrics data goes. I then scored each individual season during that timeframe based the following criteria:
Regular Season Winning Percentage
How teams performed in the regular season matters for this exercise, even if they didn't win a championship. To create a score for winning percentage, I documented each team’s regular season record all the way back to 1981. I then created unique groups for every winning percentage tier. To illustrate further, every 13-3 team fell into one group, and every 3-13 team into another. There are 49 unique groups in all, and I labeled each of them with a points total in ascending order. Every winless team resided in the first group and received 1 point. The 2007 New England Patriots were in the last group and received 49 points for their undefeated regular season.
DVOA
This is the "advanced stats" part of the scoring formula. While regular season record is informative, the underlying numbers can paint a broader picture of a team’s dominance. DVOA measures a team’s efficiency on a per-play basis. Using Football Outsiders, I grabbed the Total DVOA Rank and Weighted DVOA Rank (adjusted for schedule difficulty) for every team in the dataset. I then averaged the two together to create a ‘Mixed DVOA’ metric. I then created 63 unique groups based on each team's Mixed DVOA ranking. Teams in the lowest DVOA group received 1 point, while teams in the highest DVOA group received 63 points.
Playoff Rounds Advanced
No team wins the championship every single season in the NFL, but consistently winning playoff games goes a long way here. I awarded 10 points for every playoff round a team advanced past. If a team earned a first-round bye, that counts as an automatic playoff victory. To win the Super Bowl, you have to advance through 4 rounds, so champions received 40 points. Playoff teams that lost in the Wild Card Round received 0 points in this category.
Championships
If we're talking greatness, then titles are paramount. I awarded Super Bowl-winning seasons with an additional 50 points.
Once I applied the point totals to each individual team and season, I used a running total calculation to create the 5-season scores. I scored each franchise from 1981-1985, 1982-1986, 1983-1987 and so on. From there, I sorted those 5-year totals to build the rankings you’re about to read through.
Note: If a franchise had overlapping 5-year runs, then only the highest rated period qualified for the list. For example, the 2018-2022 Chiefs are now ineligible despite a high score, as they overlap with the more successful 2019-2023 Chiefs run.
And with that, enough explaining. It’s time for the rankings. Which franchise had the greatest 5-year run of them all? Where will the now 3-time champion Chiefs land? We start at the top..
1) 2014-2018 Patriots (792 Points)
Surprise! It's the Patriots. It was always going to be the Patriots. The Brady-era Patriots are the rare team that we all collectively agree deserve the dynasty label. It’s a bullet-proof resume. You care about total championships? Their 6 Super Bowls during the Brady era match or exceed the number of Super Bowls any other franchise has won in their entire history. You care about longevity? They won the Super Bowl in the 2001/2002 and 2018/2019 seasons.
What’s a little surprising to me is that this specific 5-year period graded out as their most dominant run. No Patriots team during this era felt as dominant as the 2007 team. You could make a strong argument that the 2018-19 Patriots team that won the Super Bowl was the weakest champion in franchise history. They only went 11-5 that season and rated as the league’s 7th best team in DVOA. Only the 2016-17 team ranked 1st in DVOA, and Atlanta had them dead to rights in the Super Bowl.
What separates this 5-year run is consistency. 3 Super Bowl wins, 1 Super Bowl loss to the Eagles, and 1 AFC Championship Game loss to the Broncos. Two 12-win seasons, one 13-win season, one 14-win season, and a championship in their “down” 11-5 season. Not bad.
What I’ll always remember about this era of Patriots football is how easily they could have come up empty-handed. The Malcom Butler interception to seal the Seattle victory. Eking out an overtime victory over Patrick Mahomes in the 2019 AFC Championship. The 28-3 comeback vs the Falcons. When we talk about “clutch” teams, the conversation should start with this group. Time and time again they delivered in tight moments when no other team would have. In doing so, they secured not only the greatest run in NFL history, but arguably in the history of professional sports.
2) 2019-2023 Chiefs (788 Points)
It’s funny when I re-read my own words on the Patriots run that tops this list. I’m pretty dismissive of the idea that we’d ever see a team a team match the legacy that they’ve left behind:
“It was always going to be the Patriots.”
“Time and time again they delivered in tight moments when no other team would have.”
In hindsight, I was full of it! A similarly clutch team began their legendary run a mere season later. Consider that the Kansas City Chiefs were trailing by 10 points in each of their 3 Super Bowl victories. In last Sunday’s game, did anyone really doubt that they’d find a way in the end? There’s an inevitability to Patrick Mahomes and this team. It’s the same aura that surrounded Tom Brady during the peak of the Patriots. I just didn’t expect to see it again, and in such short order.
The top 3 teams on this list share the common characteristic of 3 Super Bowl titles in 5 years. Of those 3 teams, only the Patriots and Chiefs made at least the AFC Championship Game in all 5 of those seasons. Quite frankly, we’re probably looking at more of a 1A/1B type ranking situation here. The Patriots won the points battle by the slightest of margins, holding a tiny edge in regular season winning percentage and DVOA:
Keep in mind it’s not a like-for-like comparison either, as the NFL expanded its regular season schedule from 16 to 17 games in the 2021 season. The Chiefs actually won more games than the Patriots over 5 years, but the two extra losses were enough to ding their winning percentage.
Despite these thin margins, there’s one key reason I feel comfortable with each team’s placement in these rankings. As mentioned in the previous section, these teams actually played each other in the 2018/19 AFC Championship Game. The last great team from one dynasty vs. the first great team from the next budding one. And the game was unbelievable, requiring an OT period to resolve it. Imagine if 1998 Michael Jordan faced 2011 Lebron James in an Eastern Conference Finals, and that series went to overtime in Game 7. From a legacy standpoint, I’d argue that AFC Championship Game was the most consequential non-Super Bowl matchup in the history of football.
I hope everyone understands how lucky we were to witness it.
3) 1992-1996 Cowboys (785 Points)
I was born in 1993. From what I've seen, the Dallas Cowboys franchise plain old SUCKS. They haven’t made a single NFC Championship appearance since 1995 and have a whopping 4 total playoff wins in that timeframe. It’s been hard to fathom why the Cowboys are the object of so much obsession. But after researching them for this article, I’ve come to a new conclusion: I get it.
Holy smokes were they dominant in the early ‘90s. 3 Super Bowl victories in 4 years. My favorite stat: Across those 3 championship runs, they won every playoff game by double digits. Every single one. 6 Hall of Famers suited up for “America’s Team” during this run: Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin, Deion Sanders, Larry Allen, and Charles Haley.
The advanced metrics favor this Cowboys team over the 2014-18 Patriots, and it's not that close. Here’s the 5-year Mixed DVOA averages for both teams:
1992-96 Cowboys: 2.3
2014-18 Patriots: 4.6
So how did they end up in 3rd? The 1996 team only went 10-6 and lost in the Divisional round of the playoffs. The 2014-18 Patriots had no such slip-up. The peak 90’s Cowboys are the most dominant team assembled in the modern era. Alas, this is a longevity exercise, and the Patriots and Chiefs were slightly more inevitable over a 5-year period.
4) 2003-2007 Patriots (730 Points)
So inevitable, in fact, that a completely separate era of Patriots football that started 11 years prior also made the Top 4 of this list! Had the 2007 Patriots completed football nirvana and won the Super Bowl, they’d have jumped the Cowboys on this list (Somehow, they still wouldn’t have jumped the 2014-18 Pats). Instead, they "settled" for 2 Super Bowls in this era and an 18-1 2007 season that none of us will forget.
Interestingly enough, this 5-year run doesn’t include their 2001-02 Super Bowl. Their 9-7 2002 season and 10-6 2005 season held their score back during that time period. The 2001 team also rated on the low-end of NFL champions, with an 11-5 record and 10th-place ranking in Mixed DVOA. The 2003 and 2004 championship teams left no such doubt. They each sported 14-2 records and convincing AFC Championship victories over the 12-4 Colts and 15-1 Steelers.
Despite losing to Jake Plummer in 2005 and the Colts in the 2006 AFC Championship Game, this era includes the 3 best Patriots teams of the Patriots dynasty. That's enough to seal their spot in the Top 4.
5) 1986-1990 49ers (710 Points)
It’s a credit to how legendary the old-school 49ers were that I’m surprised they’re only in 5th place here. A simple exercise in perspective would be acknowledging that the Chiefs ranked higher on this list than that 49ers team. The Chiefs have a long way to go to match the scope of the 49er's dominance, but they're off to a similar start! Turning the attention to the Joe Montana/Jerry Rice juggernaut, this particular era comes out on top because they scored back-to-back championships
The 1988-89 championship team actually had the worst regular season record of this 5-year span at 10-6. The following year they were a complete wagon, winning the Super Bowl with a 14-2 record while rating as the league’s best team in DVOA. In totality, they were close to winning 4 straight Super Bowls. In 1987, they had a league-leading 13-2 record but the Vikings upset them in a divisional round shocker. They also went 14-2 in the 1990 season, but lost the NFC Championship Game on a last second field goal to a Giants team that went on to win the Super Bowl.
*Fun fact about yours truly— my dad made me watch that 1990 Giants victory on a grainy VHS tape when I was a kid.*
Despite these heights, the 2 early playoff losses during this period dropped them to 5th on this list. The 1986 season was also a strange outlier— their season ended with a 49-3 shellacking by a Super Bowl-winning Giants team in the Divisional Round.
6) 1992-1996 49ers (640 Points)
Out of every great franchise run on this list, only the 49ers were able to manage a quarterback transition in the midst of it. Joe Montana injured his elbow in the preseason before the 1991 season, paving the way for Steve Young to take the reins at quarterback. He struggled a bit in his first season as starter, but in 1992 he left no doubt that the good times would keep on rolling for San Francisco.
Young would go on to win the NFL MVP award in both the 1992 and 1994 seasons, and the performance of the 49ers followed suit. He led the Niners to a 14-2 record in 1992 before losing to the incredible Cowboys team that ranks 2nd on this list in the NFC Championship game. He once again led the 49ers to the NFC Championship in 1993, only to lose to that same Cowboys team once again. But he finally got over the hump in 1994, exacting revenge on the Cowboys in the NFC Championship game. He then destroyed the Chargers with a 6 TD performance in the Super Bowl (with Jerry Rice on the receiving end of 3 of them).
The 1994 season marked the peak for this iteration of the 49ers. Although they remained successful in the coming seasons, winning at least 11 games in every season through 1998, Young battled injuries throughout and they never got back to the Super Bowl. Their stellar advanced statistics profile (they ranked top 3 in DVOA during all 5 seasons) boosted their ranking despite the lack of a 2nd championship during this period.
7) 2004-2008 Steelers (639 Points)
The “Steel Curtain” era gets the most attention when talking about the Pittsburgh Steelers history, and deservedly so. 4 Super Bowls in 6 years is a run that no team on this list can match. Unfortunately, we don’t have advanced numbers to go back that far, excluding them from this ranking. On the bright side, they still get representation here with an underrated run from 2004-08, marked by 2 Super Bowl titles and a 15-1 juggernaut season in 2004.
They actually won more championships than the Patriots during this period, despite living in their shadow. New England did beat their 15-1 team in the 2004 AFC Championship, but they bounced back with a Super Bowl victory in 2005. They entered the AFC playoffs as the 6th and final Wild Card team that year (despite a solid 11-5 record), but won 3 straight games on the road before defeating a 13-win Seahawks team in the Super Bowl. In the words of Yoda: an underrated run, that was. They wrapped up their 5-year run with another Super Bowl in 2008, with a last-minute touchdown catch by Santonio Holmes sealing the deal.
I’ll remember these teams for their nasty defense more than anything. Troy Polamalu is one of the most memorable safeties I’ve ever watched, not only for his hair but for his explosiveness at all levels of the field. James Harrison was one of the scariest players in the game off the edge. Joey Porter was in his heyday at linebacker. Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t yet the prolific quarterback he’d become, but he was steady enough in big moments, especially in 2008, to guide them to 2 titles.
Despite winning two championships, they fall beneath the Steve Young 49ers on this list because their valleys were lower. They missed the playoffs in 2006, and lost in the Wild Card round in 2007. In an era defined by Patriots football, Steelers fans can take solace in knowing they still got to eat, even if only for a little bit.
8) 1984-1988 Bears (634 Points)
DAAAA BEARS!
The 1985 Bears team rated as the single best season of this entire analysis, going 15-1 in the regular season and rolling in the playoffs to a Super Bowl victory. The combined score of their 3 playoff games: 91-10. Absurd. They were also dominant in their encore season, with a 14-2 regular season and a number 1 ranking in DVOA, but Washington upset them in their first playoff game.
They never quite got back to those heights again. They lost their first playoff game (again to Washington) in 1987 as well. They actually hosted the 1988-89 NFC Championship game, but got smoked 28-3 by the 49ers. Still, they made the playoffs in all 5 seasons, played in 3 conference championship games, and fielded arguably the greatest individual team of all time. Given how the Bears franchise has fared since this run, I’m sure their fans are happy to see them make this list.
9) 1996-2000 Broncos (629 Points)
The story of this late-90’s Broncos squad might be my favorite of any team on this list. Imagine you’re John Elway. You’re the number 1 pick and you completely live up to the lofty expectations. You win an MVP. You’re a Pro Bowl mainstay. You even lead your team to 3 Super Bowls in 4 years in the late ‘80s. But the problem is, none of the matchups are even close. You lose 39-20 to the Giants. 42-10 to Washington the next year. 55-10 to the 49ers 2 years later. So close, yet so very very far.
Then you suffer through years of mediocrity. 1 measly playoff win over the next 6 seasons. Finally in 1996, you’re back on top. A 13-3 regular season, the 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. But then you lose to the freaking Jacksonville Jaguars in your first playoff game, a 9-7 team in the midst of their 2nd season in franchise history. At this point, you’ve got to be thinking it’s not meant to be. For all the accolades and achievements, a championship isn’t in the cards.
So what do John Elway and the Denver Broncos do? Win the next 2 Super Bowls, of course! It’s such a badass achievement, and when you consider the prior context it’s one of the all-time examples of perseverance in sports. And to think both titles came in the last 2 seasons Elway ever played. Epic.
That was pretty much it for the Broncos during this era. After Elway retired, they turned to Brian Griese at Quarterback and dropped from 14-2 to 6-10. They actually made the playoffs the next season with an 11-5 record but they lost in the Wild Card round. That little boost during the 2000 season was enough to get this team’s incredible story over the top and onto this list.
10) 1981-1985 49ers (626 Points)
The Montana/Young/Rice 49ers can’t lay claim to the most dominant 5-year run ever, but they’re the only team with 3 different iterations that qualified. That’s a testament to their unparalleled championship consistency over the course of 15 years. Even the Patriots had a 10 year drought between Super Bowls. From 1981-1995, the 49ers never went more than 5 seasons without a Super Bowl trophy.
This was the run where it all started. 1981 marked Joe Montana’s 3rd season as the team’s starter, and their first Super Bowl in franchise history. Despite the championship, the team had a Mixed DVOA rank of 10.5, so advanced metrics saw them as closer to an average team than a great team. The 1984 Super Bowl-winning team answered any questions about their greatness, going 15-1 and ranking 1st in DVOA. The 1984 team tied the 1985 Bears as the highest rated teams evaluated for this analysis.
The 1982 strike-shortened season held this 49ers iteration back, as they sputtered to a 3-6 record. They bounced back and made the NFC Championship in 1983, before laying waste to the league in 1984. They also made the playoffs in 1985, albeit with a 10-6 record, and lost in the Wild Card round.
If you’ve made it this far in the article, then you understand that the rest truly is history for this Niners bunch.
Honorable Mention
Here are a few teams that nearly qualified for the Top 10, with achievements significant enough to deserve a shout-out here.
1986-1990 Giants (620 Points)
This team defeated the 1986-90 49ers (who ranked 5th on this list) twice in the NFC Championship game on the way to two Super Bowls. However, they failed to win another playoff game in this era.
2003-2007 Colts (615 Points)
Behind one of Peyton Manning's apex runs, the Colts were a dominant regular season team, averaging over 12 wins across this 5-year period. They got over the hump in 2006 and won their first and only Super Bowl in franchise history. Every other playoff run ended with bitter disappointment during this time. Two blowout losses to the Patriots in 2003 and 2004, and 2 home playoff losses in the Divisional Round to the Steelers (the infamous Jerome Bettis fumble and Big Ben game-saving tackle) and Chargers, respectively.
2012-2016 Seahawks (610 Points)
In my opinion, this is top team across the honorable mention group. If Russell Wilson doesn’t throw an interception on the 1-yard line in the 2015 Super Bowl, this team wins back-to-back championships and would have placed 6th on this list. Instead they only won 1 Super Bowl in an era where they ranked 1st in DVOA for 4 straight seasons. It’s a game of inches..
1993-1997 Packers (605 Points)
Before allegedly embezzling funds from the state of Mississippi, we all remember how fun it was to watch Brett Favre’s gunslinger act. This 5-year period represented peak Favre. He won 3 straight MVPs from 1995-97 and made back to back Super Bowls in 1996 and 1997, winning in ’96.
1982-1986 Redskins (598 Points)
1987-1991 Redskins (591 Points)
Believe it or not, Washington, D.C. was once home to a great football franchise. So great in fact, that 2 separate eras over a 10-year period almost qualified for this list. The highs were awe-inspiring: 3 Super Bowl wins, 4 Super Bowl appearances. There were also enough seasons mixed in where they didn’t win a playoff game or missed the playoffs entirely that led to their exclusion from the top 10.
As always, SELL THE TEAM DAN SNYDER!!
UPDATE: HE ACTUALLY DID!!
*Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are from pro-football-reference.com and Football Outsiders. Additionally, the Football Outsiders site was shut down during the time between the initial article and its now updated version. DVOA stats for the 2023 season are from ftnfantasy.com.