For those that may have missed it, the boys are participating in the Circa Millions IV contest this year. Well… sort of. None of the risk, none of the reward, other than the pride of knowing we would’ve taken it down had we flew to Vegas and entered.
Off to a 4-1 start last week! John was an idiot and really bet on the Panthers, all of the options on the board and he bet on the Panthers, but Texans +7, Ravens -7, Chargers -3.5 and the joint pick of Bucs -2.5 all smashed.
We’re onto Week 2.
John’s Picks (1-1)
Pick #1: Detroit Lions -1.5 v. Washington Commanders
Wait, John, you took the PANTHERS last week and now you’re taking the LIONS this week!? You’re damn right I am.
This game opened at Lions +1 and has been bet all the way to this number. This is the official line from Circa, but assuming the line holds favoring the Lions up to kickoff, it will be the FIRST time they’ve been favored in a game in 25 games! The last time they were favored was November 22, 2020 against the PJ Walker led Panthers (a game they lost 20-0), and the 24 game streak they’ve been on up until this point has set a record for the Super Bowl era.
The Lions are 5-1 in their last 6 against Washington and I’m a bigger believer in their talent than I am the Commanders’. Sounds like D’Andre Swift after missing practice most of this week is going to be good to go. The Commanders struggled to cover Travis Etienne last week out of the backfield, it could’ve been a lot worse than the story the final stats told, and I expect them to struggle in a similar fashion against Swift. As much as anything this is a bet on the Lions improved culture, and a bet against Carson Wentz on the road.
Since 2007, only 12 out of the 125 teams that have started the season 0-2 have made the playoffs. I’m not ready to call the Lions a playoff team yet but I think they’re fringe contenders for a wild card spot. I like them in a desperation bounce back spot at home facing a team coming off a sloppy win Week 1.
Pick #2: Pittsburgh Steelers +2 v. New England Patriots
It’s hard for me to envision the Patriots being road favorites against anyone right now. Where is the top end talent on that roster? If Tua Tagovailoa didn’t throw a few poor passes and miss a few open receivers, the Dolphins could’ve won that game by a lot more than they did, and it still wasn’t competitive. New England’s offensive line looked horrible. New England’s skill guys look uninspiring. And Mac Jones is hurt! Not only is he hurt … he’s sick! But here are a few fun stats that make me feel even more confident in this selection, courtesy of the Action Network.
Mike Tomlin is 46-23-2 ATS as an underdog.
Mike Tomlin is 14-3-2 at home (82%!) ATS as an underdog.
Underdogs in games with a total below 42 (this total currently sits at 40.5) have covered 62% of the time since 2018 and 64.5% of the time when the underdog is at home.
Teams that were underdogs in Week 1, lost and then were favored in Week 2 are 4-14-1 ATS since 2005.
Is it tough to bet on Mitchell Trubisky? Sure. Did the Steelers offense look equally as uninspiring at times last weekend? Sure. Is TJ Watt a huge loss for this game? Sure. Don’t think any of it matters here.
David’s Picks (2-0)
Pick #1: Green Bay Packers -10 vs. Chicago Bears
Yes, the Bears upset against the Niners in Week 1 was a lot of fun! But does this really require further explanation?
I suppose if this scenario were recreated then my pick would merely be a push. I’ll bank on the Lambeau advantage to help me cover. Unlike Lovie Smith, we don’t play for ties here!
Pick #2: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
I’m riding the Ravens again in Week 2, even though this could be a tricky game. Remember, the Dolphins overwhelmed the Ravens offense last year in a 22-10 victory, in a game the Ravens were favored by 8.5 points in. At Miami. Less than a year later and now they’re favored by 5 less points at home. If you assume Vegas gives home teams a 3-point advantage by default, this line suggests these teams are essentially even now, but is that justified?
It’s important to remember last year’s game was one of those weird Thursday Night affairs that almost always feature sloppy football. We just saw our latest example of this last night, when the Chargers had a very Chargers-y performance, somehow losing a game they mostly dominated due to terrible execution in key moments. If we’re going to treat Miami’s victory last year as significant, then what do we do with the Ravens 59-10 victory over the Dolphins in 2019? If my memory serves, the general public was ready to disband the Miami football franchise after that game. Recency bias is an illusion. The reality is the Ravens are a perennial playoff team when healthy, and the Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game since 2000.
Despite their win over a dysfunctional Patriots team, the Dolphins offensive line looked shaky in Week 1, and the Ravens could be more equipped than the Pats were to expose it. Combined with the Raven’s star-laden secondary, I think Tua’s going to have a rough game. Miami made some flashy upgrades this offseason, but I think it’s jumping the gun to put them on equal terms with the Ravens at present. We’ll find out on Sunday if my hunch is correct.
Mutual Pick (1-0)
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -2 v. Minnesota Vikings
We considered a few games this week:
Raiders -5.5 vs. Cardinals: We both are way way out on the Cardinals, but couldn’t pull the trigger on this spread with an unproven Raiders team.
Colts -4 @ Jaguars: Just when we thought we’d convinced ourselves that this was the pick, we took a look at the Colts injury report. Oof.
Bucs -2.5 @ Saints: We couldn’t agree on who we wanted to take in this one. The Saints looked sketchy in Week 1, but the Bucs are nursing a lot of injuries and the offense wasn’t exactly sharp vs. Dallas. Not to mention New Orleans has been a house of horrors for Tampa Brady.
By sheer process of elimination we landed on the Monday Night Philly Special! As a Giants fan, a part of me just died typing that out. But going into the season, we were both high on the Eagles, and now they’re only laying 2 points at home. It’s clear the Vikings’ comprehensive win over Green Bay and Philly’s defensive struggles at Detroit have influenced the betting markets. If this was the line in the preseason, we’d have been licking our chops. And given that it’s human nature to overreact to one week of football, we’re sticking with our preseason logic.
Any time you can wager on a Jalen Hurts vs. Kirk Cousins matchup, you absolutely should! For more questionable gambling advice delivered straight to your inbox, subscribe here: