Predicting the Top Seed in the Western Conference
In a tight 4-team race for home court advantage, which team is primed to grab poll position?
Since the turn of the century, it’s no secret that the NBA has had a major conference imbalance. The tale of the championship tape says it all. Since 2000, the league has crowned 24 champions: 16 of those teams were from the Western Conference, and only 8 from the Eastern Conference. Year after year, the Western Conference is the league’s gold standard, with at least 4 to 5 teams in moderate to serious title contention. The conference has been home to legendary, decade-spanning champions: the Kobe/Shaq Lakers, the Tim Duncan Spurs, and the Splash Brother Warriors. And then you have the little brother that is the Eastern Conference. The only East franchise to win multiple titles this century are the Miami Heat, the beneficiaries of a 4-year fling between Lebron James and Dwyane Wade.
Beyond the iconic teams it has produced, the crucible of the Western Conference has consistently provided a competitive race for top seeding in the playoffs. This century, there have already been 7 instances where 4 games or less separated the top-4 seeds in the West. That’s not even counting the 2014/15 season, where the 6-seed San Antonio Spurs finished 1 game behind the 2-seed Houston Rockets. The conference has engulfed plenty of would-be contenders, sporting impressive 50+ win seasons, yet failing to secure home court advantage for even a single playoff round.
This year’s Western Conference race delivers more fascinating theater, with the formation of a clear hierarchy of 4 top teams. Only 2.5 games (2 in the loss column) separate 1st place from 4th place. Adding further intrigue is the involvement of unexpected contenders. Raise your hand if you had the Thunder and Timberwolves holding the top 2 seeds in the conference at this stage in the season. Right on their heels are the reigning champion Denver Nuggets, currently in 3rd place after holding home court advantage in every playoff series last season. Completing the quartet are the Los Angeles Clippers. After a 3-7 start, they’ve catapulted up the standing, courtesy of their all-in trade for James Harden and the rejuvenated brilliance of their superstar duo.
In anticipation of the season’s homestretch, let’s speculate on this elite foursome’s final placement in the Western Conference standings. I’ve analyzed statistical performance thus far, upcoming strength of schedule, and the health track record of key players to base my projections. While the past can’t predict the future, we can always learn from it, so I’ll be using historical context to strengthen or detract from each team’s case as the top seed. We’ll start with my projection for the 4-seed and work our way up to the top.
#4 Seed: Los Angeles Clippers
Current Record: 39-20 (4th in the West)
If the Clippers hadn’t sleepwalked to start the season, they’d find themselves in poll position in the West. Alas, the fact that they’re still within range of the 1-seed is a testament to their elite level of play since the beginning of December. The Clippers are a relic of a bygone “Big Three” era, with Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden all ranking in the top 20 in Wins Above Replacement, per Neil Paine’s RAPTOR player ratings. After suffering through multiple injury-riddled seasons, Leonard has recaptured peak form and re-entered the MVP discussion. They’ve blitzed the league with a top-5 offense, leaning not only on the efficiency of their 3 stars, but several high-level contributors on the periphery. Norman Powell is shooting lights out from 3-point range. Terrance Mann remains a connective bridge on the wing. Russell Westbrook has settled nicely into a reserve role after spending several years in the purgatory reserved for washed former superstars, although a recent hand injury has put the rest of his season in question.
While explosive offensively, their 11th rated defense leaves some cause for concern. Ivica Zubac is a solid big, but not someone who makes you second guess a venture into the paint. Opposing teams are shooting 66.8% at the rim, which ranks 19th league wide. Playoff teams will perpetually target James Harden on the defensive end. Last year’s Nuggets provided the blueprint for winning with an elite offense and a solid enough defense. If the Clippers can embrace the little nuances, with relentless effort and diligent positioning, they have the potential to replicate it. Having a human velociraptor on the wing in Leonard certainly helps.
It's hard for me to envision this team as the Western Conference 1-seed for two reasons. For starters, the Clippers have been a walking health risk since George and Leonard teamed up in 2019. The last time the Clippers had their stars healthy for a playoff run was in the 2020 bubble. Kawhi Leonard tore his ACL during their conference finals run in 2021, then missed the entirety of the following season. Paul George didn’t make it to the regular season finish line last year. Then Kawhi tore his meniscus in the first round against the Suns.
Both have been healthy this season, but none of it matters if they aren’t available in the playoffs. Were I a devoted Clippers fan, I’d consider approaching Steve Ballmer to offer a hand in transporting the glass case containing both players during the month of March. Somewhere, Norman Powell and Russell Westbrook are licking their chops at the volume of shots they’re about to put up. Their time in the spotlight may not be conducive to the 1-seed, but it may be necessary for the larger aspirations of the team. Even if the Clippers lost their minds and went all out for the 1-seed, they still have the most difficult remaining schedule of the top 4 teams in the West. They get the Wolves and Nuggets one more time, and two games apiece against the Bucks and Suns.
The Clippers are the oldest team in the Western Conference, with an average roster age of over 29 years old. There’s a strong track record for teams with this level of experience in the postseason: recent champions like the 2020 Lakers, 2016 Cavaliers, and 2011 Mavericks all had similarly seasoned rosters. Conversely, it’s difficult to keep an aging core in place for an extended period of time. Only 8 teams since 2005/06 have had average roster ages surpassing the 30-year mark, suggesting that this iteration of the Clippers is on its last, if not final, legs. We’ll judge this team’s legacy by their performance in the second season. I expect they’ll use the remainder of the regular season to optimally position for it.
#3 Seed: Minnesota Timberwolves
Current Record: 42-19 (T-2nd in the West)
This Timberwolves team is exactly where it belongs in the league’s present hierarchy. Don’t let their lack of experience, or the mascot on the front of their jerseys dissuade from that fact. Their net rating is representative of a 60-to-61 win team. They have the league’s best defense…by far. And most importantly, they have Anthony Edwards, already a superstar player at 22 years of age, with the potential to carry them deeper in the postseason than they’ve ever gone.
They have the 15th most difficult remaining schedule in the league, including four home games against the legion of creampuffs in Detroit, Washington, Portland, and Toronto. Edwards, Rudy Gobert, and Mike Conley have demonstrated years of reliability on the health front and should remain in peak shape for the stretch run. Karl Anthony Towns is they key injury concern, after playing in only 29 games last year, but he’s been available in all but two games this season.
With all these factors on their side, there’s plenty of reason to believe they can obtain top playoff positioning in the conference. But I can’t get past the offensive struggles. They rank 17th in offensive rating, squarely in the middle of the NBA pack. What’s frustrating is it’s not for lack of efficient scoring talent. All 5 of their starters rank in the 70th percentile or higher at their positions in points per shot attempt. They sport the 10th best effective field goal percentage in the league as a team. Towns, Conley, and Naz Reid all shoot greater than 40% from 3. Edwards is right on the cusp at 39%.
The problem is, they cannot take of the basketball. Their turnover rate of 15% ranks 26th in the league. It’s a team-wide issue. Every starter besides Mike Conley has a turnover percentage in the 44th percentile or lower at their positions. You can imagine how movie night goes for the T-Wolves. Mike Conley passes on the popcorn bucket, instead going for a healthier snack, lets say trail mix. Meanwhile, every other player can’t help themselves. They head straight to the butter fountain, flooding their popcorn until it spills over the side of the bucket, dousing their hands and rendering them unable to securely grip a basketball.
No matter how great their defense is, their offensive struggles are a potentially fatal flaw, both in the 1-seed race and the postseason. Every single Western Conference 1-seed since the 1998/99 season has had a top 10 offensive rating. The 98/99 Spurs were right on the cusp at 11th in offensive rating. If the Timberwolves grab the West’s 1-seed, they could be the worst offense (relative to the league that season) ever to hold the top seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
Sunday’s home loss to the Clippers is a perfect encapsulation of this team’s strengths and flaws. They shot a putrid 38.8% from the field and scored 88 points. They also held an elite Clippers offense to 37.6% shooting and only 89 points. Their smothering defense will fuel plenty of wins in the season’s final stretch, but I think their sputtering offense costs them enough games to take a slight fall down the standings.
Stay with me Wolves fans, there’s a silver lining here. The single season rise, after finishing 8th in the conference last year, has been nothing short of astonishing. The future is very bright, regardless of this season’s outcome. Offensive growing pains are to be expected for a team led by a young superstar. A discipline problem is far more correctable than a talent problem. We’ll see how fast the Wolves can grow up over the next few months. Their success this season depends on it.
#2 Seed: Denver Nuggets
Current Record: 42-19 (T-2nd in the West)
While they’ve ceded the top seed in the West (for now), the Nuggets remain right on schedule with their title defense. They still have Nikola Jokic, continually cementing his status as the best player in the world. He’s flanked by the same lights-out starting five that torpedoed through the 2023 playoffs. There’s no team I trust more to execute in crunch time.
Their closing sequence against Golden State last Sunday was basketball beauty, personified. If you leave Jamal Murray on an island with a smaller player, he’ll effortlessly get to his favorite spots in the mid-range. If you double team him, he’ll find a rolling Jokic in the paint with space, and it’s time to say your prayers. And on the rare occasion that the Nuggets have a disjointed possession, Jokic is there to clean up the garbage. It’s these small, yet critical moments that validate this team as Western Conference, if not league-wide, frontrunners.
Yet, much like last year, they don’t statistically profile as a dominant regular season team. They sport the 5th best net rating in the league at +5, suggesting the quality of a 53-win team, rather than a multi-championship juggernaut. One might naturally assume this is a top 5 offense, but they’re down to 7th in offensive rating this season. Despite employing one of the most efficient scorers of all time at center, they’ve struggled to finish, ranking 17th in FG% at the rim. They prioritize a methodical, patient approach on offense, rather than volume 3-point shooting, reflected in their 27th ranked 3pt frequency. And of course, there’s questions about the bench. The Nuggets’ net rating drops 24.2 points per 100 possessions when Jokic is off the floor. If they’re missing a single cog from their starting 5 machine, they present a much less intimidating proposition.
All that said, the Nuggets had a similar regular season profile last year, then stormed to the championship with a dominant 16-4 playoff record. Many of these “issues” were eradicated simply by playing their dominant starting 5 more minutes in the playoffs. Regardless, where they come up short on the advanced stats front, they make up in the far more important category of winning basketball games. When you’re led by a singular offensive talent who attacks defenses in unpredictable ways, you’re bound to win the toss-up games that come down to little moments of brilliance. Net rating will never capture that nuance.
History tells us that we shouldn’t expect the reigning champion to waltz to the 1-seed in the follow-up season anyways. Since the 1976/77 season, when the league expanded beyond 20 teams, the average playoff seed for a reigning champion is 2.8, right in line with Denver’s place in the standings. Plenty of defending champions have accepted a small drop in the standings as a sacrifice to achieving their ultimate goals. It’s far more valuable for Denver to get to the finish line with Jamal Murray intact than it is to obtain home court advantage throughout the Western conference playoffs.
Then again, maybe they get the 1-seed anyways, further strengthening their foothold on the conference. They’re 42-19, half a game back from the 1-seed in the West, with the easiest remaining strength of schedule of the four West contenders. Crucially, 2 of their 3 remaining games against the Timberwolves are at home. No matter where they finish, they’ll have a chance to prove, once again, that their lack of elite statistical performance in the regular season is a product of their relaxed approach to it, rather than a warning sign.
#1 Seed: Oklahoma City Thunder
Current Record: 42-18 (1st in the West)
You heard it here. The Baby Thunder are going to hold on and snag the 1 seed in the Western Conference, experience be damned. They’re one of two teams in the NBA, along with the Celtics, that have both a top-5 offense and a top-5 defense. They have the best net rating of any team in the Western Conference. To put Shai Gilgeous Alexander’s spectacular season into perspective, he currently ranks 1st in Neil Paine’s RAPTOR Player Ratings, above this man.
Jokic has lapped the field from an advanced stats (and hardware) perspective for several years. The last thing I expected was for a 25-year-old guard to close the gap. Shai carries himself with the self -assurance of someone whose been there and done that, an essential demeanor when leading a youthful group with lofty aspirations. By leveraging the gravitational pull of Shai’s stardom, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams have also propelled themselves to borderline All-Star levels of play. They have six players in their rotation shooting 40% or above from the 3-point line (Shai is at 39% from 3). Their youth and athleticism is also a disruptive force on the defensive end, forcing opponents into a league-leading turnover rate and league-low scoring efficiency at the rim.
The path to the 1-seed is right there. Their remaining strength of schedule ranks 17th league-wide, with zero games left against their contending counterparts in the West. Youth could be cause for concern as the pressure and stakes rise, but it should work in their favor with fresh legs for the final third of the season. The Thunder would be the youngest top seed in modern NBA history. Their top 7 players by minutes played are all 25 years old or younger. Even with the recent acquisition of Gordon Hayward, the average roster age for this team is 24.7.
Unearthing a team with recent resemblance doesn’t require an extensive deep dive into the basketball archives; the Memphis Grizzlies, guided by Ja Morant over the past two seasons, similarly boasted an average age under 25. Perhaps as an omen for this Thunder team, those Grizzlies infamously struggled to advance in the postseason despite holding the 2-seed both times. The Thunder and Grizzlies share similar inexperience, but their stylistic blueprint couldn’t stray further. The Grizzlies have relied on a chaotic offensive approach to overwhelm more experienced opponents, made possible with kinetic athlete in Morant and a bruising front line. Oklahoma City operates on the other end of the spectrum, with fluid execution (3rd in eFG% and 2nd in turnover rate) that makes up for their size and strength deficiencies (28th in offensive rebounding percentage).
No team enters the postseason without its flaws. The Thunder’s lack of size could certainly be a problem in a matchup against gigantic front lines, but the Grizzlies approach to half-court offense is a playoff non-starter. The better recent comparison to capture the potential of this Thunder squad is…the Thunder! The 2010/11 team, led by a young Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, made the conference finals ahead of schedule. Fast forward a year later and they were playing in the Finals. Ascensions are rapid in the NBA. There’s no reason to put a ceiling on such a precociously talented group.
Were the Thunder to finish with the top seed in the West, it wouldn’t be the first time this season that boundaries were pushed beyond what we thought possible. Did your bingo card have a 39-year-old cyborg continuing to play at an All-NBA level? Or a 7’4” freak hitting no-look threes and blocking NBA players like they’re children at a basketball camp? Who’s to say we won’t see a young team set a new standard for ahead-of-schedule regular season success? Then the question becomes whether they can achieve something far greater.
*All stats are from Cleaning the Glass unless otherwise noted