Wild Card Weekend Predictions
PLAYOFF FOOTBALL!
What a time! It sneaks up on you fast but once it’s here, you’re happy to have made it. PLAYOFF FOOTBALL. Six games this weekend. Four bound-to-be high level games next weekend. Wide open conference championship races. And then a Super Bowl that has five teams set between +330 and +750 before the games start today to lift the Lombardi.
For reference in 2020 we had three teams at +750 odds or better with the Chiefs set as +190 favorites. In 2021 we had only two teams at better than +750 odds with the Packers sitting at +380 and the Chiefs at +450.
What does that mean to me? In what’s been a hyper competitive season, we enter the playoffs with the ability to talk ourselves into a wide variety of scenarios!
The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes. He’s made it to the AFC Championship game every year of his career as a starter. This team also screwed around with the Texans and Broncos twice down the stretch. They won’t get to host the title game in Arrowhead if it’s against Buffalo. They lost against both the Bills AND the Bengals this year. This hasn’t necessarily been the machine of destruction that we’ve come to expect, even with the 14-3 record.
Is this finally the Bills’ year? Well. The cover photo might give away my opinion. Referenced by Ben Solak on the Bill Simmons podcast this week, Buffalo is one of now nine teams in NFL history to finish top-5 in offense, defense and special teams DVOA. They enter the playoffs (as you’d expect after reading that) with the #1 overall DVOA in the NFL, have extra motivation with how last year played out, and are now playing for something significantly bigger than themselves after what they went through with the Damar Hamlin situation. This franchise also has to bear the weight of having never won a Super Bowl, they now have to beat the Bengals AND the Chiefs just to get to the Super Bowl because they missed out on the #1 seed and Josh Allen continues to make silly mistakes which has helped teams stay in games against Buffalo longer than they should. That won’t fly over these next few weeks.
The Bengals? They’ve been the hottest team in the NFL the last two months. Cincinnati enters this week’s game against the Ravens not having lost since NOVEMBER started. 8-straight wins for Joe Burrow and the crew. They also had to place starting OL Alex Cappa AND La’El Collins on the IR over the course of the last two weeks and would have to (likely) win games IN Buffalo and IN Kansas City. The AFC is a gauntlet.
On the NFC side, the Eagles haven’t played their best football in a month now. Still fighting off the rust after missing the Cowboys and Saints games, Jalen Hurts will have to play at a high level this next month for the Eagles to bring home the trophy. The bye week helps them more than it could have anyone else. OT Lane Johnson returned to practice. DE Josh Sweat and CB Avonte Maddox look like they’ll be able to play next week too. Anytime you start 13-1, the expectations become Super Bowl or bust. Anytime you play in Philly, those expectations become even more heightened and pressurized.
The Niners might be the most well-rounded team in the league. Deebo Samuel is back healthy, as is Elijah Mitchell, and Christian McCaffrey has made the offense damn-near unstoppable since his arrival from Carolina. They’ve averaged 30.5 ppg over the last ten games since the trade, even including an ugly 13-0 win over the Saints in there, which is a number that would lead the league. The biggest question remains, can Brock Purdy lead this team to a Super Bowl in his rookie season? No rookie has ever started their career 10-0. That’s what would have to happen for the Niners to lift the trophy. The defense and the run game can get them far, but can it get them over the top when they’re needing to trade blows with… say… Jalen Hurts? Or Josh Allen? Or Patrick Mahomes? Or Joe Burrow? Remains to be seen.
And that’s just touching on the five teams with the best odds! Last year’s Super Bowl participants started +1000 (Rams) and +2000 (Bengals) respectively. Could the Vikings just continue to get lucky? What if Brady and the Bucs found another gear in the Panthers game? The Cowboys are ultra talented on both sides of the ball, stinker against Washington last week not withstanding. Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert are both high level guys taking their teams to the playoffs for the first time, would it be *THAT* shocking if either one pulled off an upset in the Divisional Round, similar to Andrew Luck upsetting Denver back in 2015? I don’t think so.
Legacies will be made. Perceptions changed. Careers altered. All in a few weeks’ time. Here we go!
San Francisco 49ers BEAT the Seattle Seahawks
It’s supposed to be rainy, a little windy, and sloppy in the Bay Area this weekend. Not sure that gives an advantage to either team - generally worse conditions help an underdog but the Niners are built to pound you into submission on the ground. Saw an awesome breakdown from Dan Orlovsky today on how the Seahawks need to attack the Niners offensively.
It makes intuitive sense. It’s awesome to see the Seahawks put on tape what was essentially the exact same play the Raiders had attacked San Francisco with the week before - when you see things like that pop up it emphasizes just how much of a copycat league the NFL is. The Seahawks didn’t know they were in the playoffs let alone playing the Niners when they ran that play for a touchdown this past weekend, but now that the whole world knows it’s a play that could beat the Niners quarters coverage, I do wonder how Seattle will use similar formations to try and bait them?
Regardless, the Seahawks are 9.5-point underdogs for a reason. The Niners won both regular season matchups (27-7 and 21-13). The Niners are the more talented team, I bragged above about them for a reason. The Seahawks have been dreadful against the run, 25th in rush defense DVOA, which spells bad news when you’re facing the Kyle Shanahan run game. You know what else is bad? 31st (WOOF!) in YAC allowed. The Niners have the most YAC of anyone in the league. Explosive offensive players against a team that gives up explosives? Not a recipe for success for Seattle. I see this as a 27-10 type of game.
Bet: Niners -9.5
Props: Elijah Mitchell o40.5 rushing yards. Tyler Lockett o61.5 receiving yards.
Jacksonville Jaguars BEAT the Los Angeles Chargers
Everyone’s all over Brandon Staley with the news that Mike Williams won’t be able to play this weekend. It really is a pretty shitty, unnecessary situation that he put his team and his players in. He also contradicted himself this week when he said resting Mike Williams during practice was more important than him getting reps. Ok…? So… why was he playing in a meaningless game in the first place if rest was more important than reps? Sometimes the public is wrong to have an uproar over a situation, I don’t think this is one of those times.
This game feels like a coin-flip. Bill Simmons has his gambling manifesto, I have mine as well…
When you have a friend that’s on staff for one of the teams in a toss-up game, just choose the team with your friend.
I think the Jaguars have a clear coaching advantage. It makes me feel sick to pick against Justin Herbert but the Chargers really haven’t been all that impressive this season.
Here are their wins:
Raiders by 5. @Texans by 10. @Browns by 2. Broncos by 3 in OT. @Falcons by 3. @Cardinals by 1. Dolphins by 6 (with Tua, good win). Titans by 3. @Colts by 17. Rams by 21.
That’s a grand total of one victory over another playoff team. This team was 1-5 overall against other teams in the field including a 38-10 Week 3 BEATDOWN versus this same Jags squad.
Night game, only their second playoff appearance since 2007, fans are going to be fired up. It’s a bit of a gut feel but anytime someone screws something up like Staley did with Mike Williams, it never ends positively for them, does it? If the Chargers were to advance and Williams was to be back healthy for a game against the Chiefs, I do think that would be significantly more fun than what I envision a future Chiefs/Jags game looking like. But… Trevor Lawrence pulls out a victory in his first playoff appearance.
Bet: UNDER 47.5 points
Props: Keenan Allen o81.5 receiving yards. Evan Engram o39.5 receiving yards.
Buffalo Bills BEAT the Miami Dolphins
This should be the Steelers. Not that the Steelers would’ve won, but its heinous that we have to watch the Dolphins with Skylar Thompson play the role of sacrificial lamb to start off our Sunday. I can’t believe I had to sit through that abomination of a game between the Dolphins and Jets last week with stakes on the line, only to watch a horse collar tackle leading to a 50-yard field goal seal my fate. Anyways.
I mean… I think this will be ugly. Damar Hamlin is expected to be at the stadium. Am I supposed to believe that this Dolphins team, with a banged up Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, no Raheem Mostert, a questionable Terron Armstead and no Tua Tagovailoa is supposed to go into Buffalo and NOT get blown out by 30 in Damar Hamlin’s return home???
How do the Dolphins score more than 14 points in this game? With what could be repeated good starting field position, how do the Dolphins hold the Bills under 28 in this game? 47-17. That was the score of the Bills/Patriots game last year this same weekend. I think we’ll see something with a similar point discrepancy.
Bet: Bills -13.5
Props: Devin Singletary o10.5 receiving yards (-120). Tyreek Hill o5.5 receptions (+106).
New York Giants BEAT the Minnesota Vikings
I want the Vikings to win. I’m just going to say that ahead of time. I will be actively rooting for the Vikings and not just because David is a Giants fan. The Vikings are fun! Who doesn’t love a team who plays high scoring close games every week?? Who doesn’t love a team that has blown two touchdown leads and comeback from a 33-point deficit?? Who doesn’t love watching Justin Freaking Jefferson play?? I’d love nothing more than this Vikings season to continue for a few weeks longer, just to tilt all those people who are soooooo frustrated by their success.
I just don’t think they’re actually going to win. The magic has to run out at some point, right? The injury sustained a few weeks back by Brian O’Neill is bad. The Vikings OL has struggled this season against any high level pass rush they’ve faced, and when they’ve had to dip into their second unit (Christian Darrisaw missed a few games with concussions, Garrett Bradbury missed games with a lower back injury) it’s been tough to watch at times. Fortunately Bradbury is back this week and will play for the first time in a month. But not having O’Neill to pass protect against stud rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux is significant. Guard Olisaemeka Udoh, a 2019 6th round pick out of Elon, is going to have to play out on the edge. If he holds up? Maybe that changes my opinion. I’m not expecting him to.
Last time these two teams played on Christmas Eve, this was a back and forth, down to the wire contest... just like every game Minnesota has played. Daniel Jones threw for 334! yards. Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson both went over 100 yards. I expect this to be a similar, high scoring affair. I’d anticipate the Giants shifting coverage to Jefferson more in this game and forcing someone like Hockenson, or Adam Thielen, or KJ Osborn to beat them, which is certainly possible, but you’d rather them beat you than watch Jefferson go for 175+. Two more quick things.
One. The Vikings are bad defensively. Hilariously bad.
Watch Brett Kollmann’s video if you don’t believe me. At the time of publishing on December 17th, the Vikings were 32nd in pass defense. 32nd in yards allowed per game. 24th in points allowed per game. Had allowed 400+ yards in five straight games… It wasn’t just the statistics, they’re a mess schematically. AND YET! At the time of the video, they were 11-3!
Which leads to point #2.
The Vikings are 13-4. Before last week’s game, with a 16-game record that has a larger sample size to compare against, they had BY FAR the worst point differential of any team to have that record ever. The Vikings are one of the luckiest teams of all time. Answering my own question from above, yes, the magic runs out at some point. That point is this weekend.
Bet: Giants ML (+132)
Props: TJ Hockenson ALT LINE 60+ receiving yards (+122). Richie James o52.5 receiving yards.
Cincinnati Bengals BEAT Baltimore Ravens
Last week the Bengals played the Ravens. In Cincinnati. And I picked the Bengals -7.5 as part of our Circa Millions Contest.
Here’s what I wrote:
Trivia question: When is the last time the Ravens scored more than one touchdown in a game? The answer would be … the last time Lamar Jackson played! NOVEMBER 27th against Jacksonville! The Ravens have played FIVE games with Tyler Huntley as their QB and have yet to get the ball in the end zone more than once … 10, 16, 3, 17 and 13 points against the murdered row lineup of the Broncos, Steelers (twice), Browns and Falcons. WOOF!
So… needless to say, the Ravens are strruuuggglliinngg to score points right now AND they’ll be without Lamar again this week. While it’s looking likely this is a game that’ll be played in back-to-back weeks, and after this past week’s circumstances the Bengals have clinched the AFC North, Cincinnati still needs to win to ensure they’ll get to host that turn-around matchup next weekend. The Bengals have voiced their frustration publicly over the last few days after the NFL announced a system that essentially benefits everyone but them. I anticipate them coming out ready to play. It’s hard for me to envision a Ravens secondary that’s been the question mark of its defense all season slowing down the Bengals for a second time. The Ravens won this matchup 19-17 earlier this year, after giving up 41!! points in both matchups last year, and Joe Burrow has looked crisp these last few weeks.
Taking the better team, incentivized to win, that presents massive match-up problems playing with a point to prove. I think the Bengals run and hide.
There’s nothing that I wrote last week that I’d change heading into this week. At the time I didn’t realize the Ravens would additionally sit Mark Andrews and JK Dobbins, but I’m not sure it would have mattered. The Bengals won 27-16, were never really stressed, and the Ravens streak of not scoring more than one touchdown since Lamar Jackson was injured continued. Guess what? Lamar isn’t playing again this week.
While I’d be surprised if the Ravens won, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them keep it within the 9.5-point spread that’s set for this game. It’s been hard and will continue to be hard for the Bengals to run the ball. The Ravens will try to sustain long drives, shorten the game and do their best to prevent big plays. The old adage is that it’s difficult to beat the same team twice, let alone in back-to-back weeks. I think the Bengals end up doing so, but I think the Ravens, even without Lamar, put up a fight.
Bet: UNDER 40.5 points.
Props: Joe Mixon o24.5 receiving yards. JK Dobbins o59.5 rushing yards.
Dallas Cowboys BEAT the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yes, the Cowboys sucked last week. Yes, the Buccaneers have Tom Brady. Yes, the Buccaneers are playing at home. Yes, Tampa Bay won the first time these two teams played 19-3 on opening weekend.
But… do you remember what the experience was like watching Tampa Bay this season? Don’t let any of what I typed above blind you. Gosh. It was sooooo ugly. So ugly! The Buccaneers are what they are: an 8-9 football team that played in an awful division, that can’t run the football, and that will be forced to drop back 45+ times against one of the league’s best pass rushes. Dallas is #6 in overall DVOA. Tampa Bay is #17. Sheil Kapadia of The Ringer referenced in his article this week that if you isolate Dallas’ offense this season to just the snaps Dak played, they were #6 in offensive DVOA. Pair this with their #2 overall defense and, boom, that’s how you have a team that when things look right, things look REALLY right. Super Bowl caliber right. A lot of people are still in wait and see mode with Dak and the Cowboys in the playoffs, but this team is undeniably talented.
I just can’t get the image of this Bucs team that I watched all year out of my head. Watching them slog their way to ugly wins against the Cardinals and the Saints and the Rams. Losing to the Steelers when Mitch Trubisky threw for 144 and a touchdown. Botching the game against the Browns. Getting embarrassed by the Panthers. Check down after check down after check down. You can see it, can’t you? The Bucs won’t be able to run because they haven’t been able to all year. They’ll spread the field and throw twelve 5-yard curls/slants to Chris Godwin. They’ll throw seven 2-yard out routes to Leonard Fournette. I see it so vividly in my head. Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence will have Brady on his ass otherwise. The Cowboys aren’t a team the Bucs are built to come from behind against.
The Cowboys are the better team. Simple as that. Give me the better team. Vegas knows what they’re doing enticing everyone to bet on Tom Brady in the playoffs but I’m not falling for the bait.
Bet: Cowboys -2.5
Props: Dalton Schultz anytime TD (+230). Leonard Fournette o4.5 receptions (+112).
I’ll be back with picks and props next week however the games end up playing out, but just to have it on the record, my full playoff bracket looks like this:
On August 30th I placed a $10 bet on the Bills to defeat the Eagles in the Super Bowl at +10000. The odds of that happening now sit at +1200. I’m a little over four weeks away from collecting. Manifesting the matchup. 😏
Enjoy the games this weekend!