Man, football season flies by doesn’t it? Months of anticipation and build up… snap your fingers and it’s over with. It is officially WEEK 18! Our final shot at a perfect week. We’ve done… decently well? Well enough that we’re going to do this again next year. Hopefully by the time August rolls around we’ll be confident enough in ourselves to actually join the real contest. Maybe we’ll even supplement a post with a brief video next season? The boys going multi-platform?? Could be a thing!
We currently sit at 44-37-4. By the rules of the contest this would give us 46 points, 1-point for each win and 0.5-points for each tie. That places us in a tie for 956th place out of 4,683. Top 15-20th percentile is within reach with a good week this week! We wouldn’t win any money in the real contest, only the top-100 + the *WORST* finishers in the contest place, but something for us to build on moving forward.
There are always additional narratives in play this week. Who needs to win? Who needs to LOSE? What incentives are on the line? Every game is a divisional rematch from something we’ve seen earlier in the year. We have the most information about these teams, yet how each team will approach this week is still always somewhat of a mystery. It’s been an awesome regular season and is setting up to be a parity-filled, exciting playoffs. Can’t wait to see what comes of it.
Onto the picks!
David’s Picks (18-14-2)
Can’t believe we’re already at the end of the regular season. Still hovering just above .500. Think of me like a frisky 6 seed about to enter Wild Card weekend. You might not be enamored by the resume, but you have to pay attention to it At least a little. Time to finish strong!
Pick #1: Tennessee Titans +6 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
These teams are going in opposite directions. The Titans haven’t won since November. The Jags haven’t lost in a month. I’m sure everyone is on the Jags here, and I certainly think they can and should win this game at home. I just..don’t quite trust them yet.
Winning games in the NFL is one thing. Covering a large spread in essentially a playoff play-in game is another. Does a young Jags team have the maturity to make this one a boring affair? I’m betting no. I think Vrabel will have some dark magic up his sleeve for this one and Tennessee will muck the game up. I think it’ll come down to Lawrence having to deliver late in his first major pressure test.
Looking forward to this one!
Pick #2: Detroit Lions +4.5 @ Green Bay Packers
Look at me. “Finish strong” and here I am starting off by picking the Lions against the Packers. When I think of these teams matching up, I always go back to that Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary where Calvin Johnson’s soul left his body watching on the sidelines and he decided to retire shortly thereafter. I’m not even sure that’s the exact sequence of events, but that’s the narrative I’ve created in my head.
So what’s going to change this year? Well for starters, I don’t need the Lions to win here. Losing on another devastating Hail Mary is fine, as long as the final score is within 4 points. My main thinking here is everyone is a little too high on the Packers right now. They beat the lowly Bears and Rams, took advantage of a second half meltdown by the Dolphins, and blew out a Vikings team we all hated. The winning streak has been great and all, but the Lions have also been red hot down the stretch.
I haven’t seen anything all season suggesting the Packers are superior to the Lions. I can’t pass up the 4.5 spread here, NFL history be damned.
John’s Picks (17-15-2)
Pick #1: Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 v. Baltimore Ravens
Trivia question: When is the last time the Ravens scored more than one touchdown in a game? The answer would be … the last time Lamar Jackson played! NOVEMBER 27th against Jacksonville! The Ravens have played FIVE games with Tyler Huntley as their QB and have yet to get the ball in the end zone more than once … 10, 16, 3, 17 and 13 points against the murdered row lineup of the Broncos, Steelers (twice), Browns and Falcons. WOOF!
So… needless to say, the Ravens are strruuuggglliinngg to score points right now AND they’ll be without Lamar again this week. While it’s looking likely this is a game that’ll be played in back-to-back weeks, and after this past week’s circumstances the Bengals have clinched the AFC North, Cincinnati still needs to win to ensure they’ll get to host that turn-around matchup next weekend. The Bengals have voiced their frustration publicly over the last few days after the NFL announced a system that essentially benefits everyone but them. I anticipate them coming out ready to play. It’s hard for me to envision a Ravens secondary that’s been the question mark of its defense all season slowing down the Bengals for a second time. The Ravens won this matchup 19-17 earlier this year, after giving up 41!! points in both matchups last year, and Joe Burrow has looked crisp these last few weeks.
Taking the better team, incentivized to win, that presents massive match-up problems playing with a point to prove. I think the Bengals run and hide.
Pick #2: New York Jets -1 @ Miami Dolphins
I may be seeing this game in a biased way, as a Steelers fan I really need the Jets to win this weekend, but at the same time the Dolphins are in a free-fall. Five straight losses (albeit all against good teams!) and without Tua Tagovailoa AND Teddy Bridgewater this week, I like for the spiral to continue and crash all the way to the floor.
This Jets team already beat this Dolphins team 40-17 once under similar circumstances. The Dolphins are 0-3 in games where starting QB this week Skylar Thompson has taken more than 10 snaps including the last two times these teams played. He’s 40-74 (54%) for 382 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs on the year. While Mike McDaniel’s system and the skill guys around Thompson are about as good of an environment as you can ask for to have a quarterback that can’t win a game on his own step-into, facing the Jets defense is a tall test.
You know why else the Jets are about to win…? After what can at best be described as up and down quarterback play all season, the Jets have wisely looked down the bench and decided to go back to an ELITE quarterback this week!
This is going to be an ugly game. But Joe Flacco v. Skylar Thompson with playoff fates across the league on the line! What could be better than this!?!?! Jets would love to put the final nail in the Dolphins season and I feel better about this knowing they’re going with an experienced guy at QB. Come on baby! Bring it home Joe!
Mutual Pick (9-8)
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 v. Cleveland Browns
We’re going to look back on Dave agreeing to ride together with the Steelers as the reason we finally completed our first undefeated week. At the Steelers bye week they were 2-6. On Thanksgiving they were 3-7. Now… after back-to-back come-from-behind, season on the line, game-winning drives led by Kenny Pickett, the Steelers are a Bills win against the Pats, a Jets win against the Dolphins and a win against the Browns this weekend away from making the playoffs… AGAIN!
As everyone continues to reference, Mike Tomlin has never finished under .500 in his career. It’s something he has publicly stated he takes a lot of pride in. We see him finding a way to continue that streak this weekend. The Browns have struggled all season to stop the interior run game. The Steelers since the bye week have dedicated themselves to becoming a power running football team behind a more healthy Najee Harris. It’s worked.
108 carries in the first eight weeks. 141 in the last eight weeks. 2-6 prior. 6-2 since.
Something else noteworthy… which we really could’ve started this segment with:
In 2021, the Steelers were 9-2 in games that TJ Watt played, 0-5 in games that he didn’t.
In 2022, the Steelers are 7-2 in games that TJ Watt played, 1-6 in games that he didn’t.
TJ Watt will play this week. And the Steelers will find a way, even if it’s ugly, to cover the 2 1/2.