Circa Million IV - Week 9 Picks
David’s Picks (10-6)
Pick #1: Buffalo Bills -12.5 @ New York Jets
This line is high for a road team, no matter how dominant the Bills have looked. I could walk you through all the numbers that make this team dominant, but this pick is instinctual.
The Jets defense is quite good. I could envision them mucking up this game a bit and turning into a divisional dogfight. But they are also quarterbacked by Zach Wilson. Zach Wilson is very bad at football. Destructively bad. We’ve seen how the energy of a team can be sapped when led by a destructively bad quarterback. If Wilson has another one of those weeks, which he likely will against an excellent Bills defense, I think it could be the week the Jets defense loses its edge. And if they lose their edge, this game could get out of hand. And if the game gets out of hand, then Davey will cover here.
Pick #2: Baltimore Ravens -2.5 @ New Orleans Saints
I wanted to quit the Ravens for the year after they burned me against Miami in Week 2. I’m still not fully recovered from that, and I still don’t fully understand this Ravens team. Every week it feels like they build a double digit lead on teams. That’s usually a sign that a team is very good. But they’re only 5-3, because they’re very bad at holding those leads. Every game becomes the Ravens holding on for dear life, as their opponent drives for a winning score. Most weeks, they’ve held on, given their 5 wins. Some weeks they have not, hence the 3 losses.
This week they play a mediocre Saints team. On the road, yes. In a tough environment, yes. But if the Baltimore Ravens want to be taken seriously as contenders, which they have the ability to be, they take care of business in a game like this. DO NOT BURN ME AGAIN RAVENS.
John’s Picks (9-7)
Traveling so brief write ups today!
Pick #1: New England Patriots -5.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
I wasn’t overly impressed with Sam Ehlinger last week. Jonathan Taylor is injured and won’t play this week. The Patriots are home in a game where they should control the tempo. Hard for me to envision the Colts scoring a lot of points. Bad situation in Indy right now.
Pick #2: Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Prime example of a spot that is closer than it should be due to recent results. Lets please not forget that the Panthers traded away their best player less than three weeks ago, essentially waving the white flag on their season. A home win over the lifeless, struggling to find an identity Buccaneers and a close loss that appeared closer than it actually was to the Falcons have people believing that the Panthers are all of a sudden going to contend in the NFC South. This team is terrible. Do not forget that. The Bengals played poorly on Monday night against the Browns but that seems to always happen these days. Kevin Stefanski is 5-0 against Zac Taylor. But this is still the Bengals. This is still a top 8-10 team in the NFL. They’re playing at home. Against a bottom 3 team in the league. And we’re only giving up 7.5 points. This is a hammer play in my opinion.
Mutual Pick (5-3)
Pick: Seattle Seahawks +2 @ Arizona Cardinals
This line is ludicrous. Has anyone watched Seattle and Arizona this year?
The Seahawks are playing like an NFC contender. Early in the season, they were winning with a league-leading offense. Lately, it’s been the defense that’s stepped up, including when they swarmed this Arizona team a couple of weeks ago. Meanwhile, things in Arizona have been shaky to say the least. We all remember the Kyler Murray shouting at his coach Kliff Kingsbury. Frankly, it’s hard to forget. It’s a team that hasn’t felt cohesive the entire season, and it would seem Kingsbury’s days are numbered as its leader.
Seattle is a team we completely believe in, with one of the best cultures in the league. Arizona is a team we have no belief in, with an eroding culture. Set it and forget it.