The boys had our first BAD week of the year last weekend! Some brutal losses in there too. Looked like the Vikings were running and hiding from the lifeless Bears when they took a 21-3 lead mid-way through the second quarter, only to end up letting Chicago actually comeback and take the lead at one point. The pesky Falcons have found a way to turn blowouts into competitive games and cost us wins multiple times now. And maybe the Packers … aren’t really that good?
We’ve been above .500 all year largely due to David’s hot start, but after last week’s 1-4 performance we’ve slipped into the danger zone. There are currently 12 people in the contest with 20+ wins while we only sit at 14. Need to start having four/five win weeks and quickly!
For those that may have missed it, the boys are participating in the Circa Millions IV contest this year. Well… sort of. None of the risk, none of the reward, other than the pride of knowing we would’ve taken it down had we flew to Vegas and entered.
David’s Picks (6-4)
Pick #1: New Orleans Saints +1.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals
4 of the top teams in the league happen to be playing each other this week, so there’s a lot of untrustworthy teams facing off with one another in Week 6. I think this will give us clarity in terms of the NFL’s pecking order, especially in the middle of the pack. And what matchup better fits that bill than Bengals-Saints?
I’m picking the Saints in this game, but my reasoning is largely an indictment of the Bengals. The Bengals have had to scrap and claw just to be 2-3. Their two wins are against the Jets with Joe Flacco, and the infamous Thursday Night game against the Dolphins when Tua was knocked out with a concussion. In case you *understandably* forgot, the Bengals were still losing that game headed into the 4th quarter. If this Bengals team were 1-4, would they be favored on the road against anyone? Vegas and the broader public continue to give this team the benefit of the doubt after their Super Bowl run last year. I get that to a degree— Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase will always be a scary combo. But watching this team week to week, I don’t see their pieces on offense coalescing into a sum that’s greater than the parts. I see Burrow under siege, and Ja’Marr Chase looking frustrated at the lack of explosive plays.
On the other end, the Saints are playing some pretty solid ball! The offense looks more crisp with Andy Dalton manning it rather than a banged up Jameis. Their running game is starting to get hot with Alvin Kamara and go-go gadget Taysom Hill back in the fold. Their receivers are talented, but they’ll likely be without Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry on Sunday. Their defense is solid, if not spectacular, but they’re capable of pressuring the quarterback. They’ve struggled in coverage recently, but the Bengals may be without Tee Higgins, which would be a huge break.
I think they have enough talent to expose the flaws of this Bengals team and get it done at home. Give me your Joe Burrow returns to New Orleans narrative and I raise you ANDY DALTON REVENGE GAME.
Pick #2: San Francisco 49ers -5.5 @ Atlanta Falcons
I give a lot of credit to Atlanta this season. Head coach Arthur Smith has them overachieving: they currently rank 4th in rushing yards per game, and 10th in overall offensive efficiency. All with Marcus Mariota running the show, a guy we hadn’t heard from in what seemed like 5 years. But the thing about great stories is that they all have ending at some point. The 49er’s defense is that ending.
The injury report is extensive for San Francisco this week, especially on defense, but DeMeco Ryans has done such an excellent job coaching this unit that I’m not too worried. The Falcons offense has been effective, but it’s pretty one dimensional: they average the 3rd-least amount of passing yards per game. Ryans might be the best defensive mind in the sport right now. If he’s being asked to solve the straightforward puzzle of stopping the run, I’m going to bet on him every time.
The Niners offense is also starting to heat up. They put up 37 on Carolina last week, and now they get an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. They’ll continue to have protection issues for as long as Trent Williams is out, but Atlanta’s toothless pass rush won’t be the unit to cause problems. Despite having the profile of an elite team, the Niners sit at only 3-2. They can’t drop games like this if they want to stay in NFC contention, and I expect their focus to match.
John’s Picks (5-5)
The lines are getting harder! I was debating between the two teams I settled on and the Chargers -4.5 against the Broncos on Monday night football. I looked at both the Vikings and the Dolphins, ultimately decided to stay away with the injury questions for Miami at QB and with Tyreek Hill and with the Vikings inability to put ‘bad’ teams away so far. I looked at the Bucs -8, ultimately felt like a little too many points. I read this article on the Action Network and it helped be the decider for me. The theme for both of my picks below:
“Fade the team making a cross country trip after a game in London that DOESN’T have a BYE week in between.” If you don’t want to read the article, I’ll lay it out for you. It’s a SUPER small sample size, admittedly, but it intuitively makes sense to me and as a ‘deciding point’, it pushed me over the edge.
Post-London teams went 2-3 straight up. The two teams that won *barely* won and the opponent had a chance to win.
All five teams in the sample played sloppy football.
Four of the five teams faced poor opponents during those individual seasons. Even still, all four games were close. The one that played an above-average team lost 26-9.
Pick #1: Baltimore Ravens -5.5 @ New York Giants
The Ravens are a good team. They rank 2nd in passing DVOA and have a delicious looking matchup against an average-below average New York secondary. The Giants have been by far this season’s luckiest team (40.8% luck rate - next closest is Dallas at 31%). According to the Action Network, teams with as much of a luck differential as the Giants and the Ravens do (35% difference!) has led to a 15-2 ATS record in the ‘unluckier teams’ favor. The Ravens have two losses to good teams against the healthy Dolphins and the Bills, games in which they trailed for a combined 14 seconds, and are only expected to continue improving with OT Ronnie Stanley’s return. WR Rashod Bateman is expected back this week in some capacity as well. I’m taking my eyes + the numbers + the trends and banking on this being a reality check for where the Giants stand relative to the upper echelon of the league this year.
Pick #2: New York Jets +7 @ Green Bay Packers
The JETS this season are looking like at worst a solid team. All that high draft capital is starting to pay off. Rookie Breece Hall had a bit of a breakout last week. Sauce Gardner has been incredible. Garrett Wilson was banged up a bit but has flashed multiple times this season already. This is a team that all of a sudden has some elite talent. One additional trend to mention along with the bullet points above: Every post-London team has been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter of the following game. I expect this game to stay close. The Packers didn’t dominate the Patriots. The Packers didn’t dominate the Bucs without all their WRs. The Packers got blown out by the Vikings. The Packers lost as huge favorites to the Giants. This is a vulnerable team that hasn’t proven capable of distancing themselves from anyone. We don’t need the Jets to win, we just need them to stay within a touchdown.
Mutual Pick (3-2)
Pick: Seattle Seahawks +2.5 v. Arizona Cardinals
How dumb does Vegas think we are? There’s no universe in which this Arizona team should be favored against anyone. I don’t care if the Seahawks were starting the spirit of Ryan Lindley. It should still be a pick-’em against this logistical mess of a Cardinals team.
Luckily for us the Seahawks start the best quarterback in football: GENO SMITH!! I’ve watched this throw like 70 times and still can’t believe Geno found a way to drop the dime:
Remember, this was a preseason QB battle between Geno and Drew Lock. That screamed bottom-5 offense. But you know who has the top rated offense in football right now? Not the Bills or the Chiefs. The Seattle Seahawks do. It’s an incredible story, and it’s easy to root for Geno, the man who DIDN’T WRITE BACK! All jokes aside, you can’t expect Geno and this offense to continue this incredible output for a full season. But I think the good times can continue to roll against an Arizona’s 26th-ranked defense.
Now there is a reason Seattle is 2-3 despite having the league’s best offense through 5 weeks: their defense is about as bad as their offense is good. Kyler is going to have some moments against them on Sunday, but Arizona’s offensive structure resembles a backyard football team more than a professional unit. I think Arizona’s lack of continuity will give this struggling Seattle defense some reprieve, and that should be enough to swing the matchup in their favor.
Recap
Week 1: 4-1 (4-1)
Week 2: 3-2 (7-3)
Week 3: 3-2 (10-5)
Week 4: 3-2 (13-7)
Week 5: 1-4 (14-11)
Note: Efficiency stats are from footballoutsiders.com.