For those that may have missed it, the boys are participating in the Circa Millions IV contest this year. Well… sort of. None of the risk, none of the reward, other than the pride of knowing we would’ve taken it down had we flew to Vegas and entered.
We kept our head above water during a wild Week 2. Just when Dave thought he had Ravens -3.5 in the bag, the Ravens secondary decided to stop playing football and allow TUA FREAKING TAGOVAILOA to throw 4 touchdowns on them…in the 4th quarter. Meanwhile, John continued his high-wire act of betting on horrible quarterbacks. Is he trying to prove a point by turning the degree of difficulty all the way up? And what will he have in store this week?
David’s Picks (3-1)
Pick #1: Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 @ Washington Commanders
Covering a touchdown on the road is never easy, but I love this matchup for the Eagles. Washington’s secondary has been awful so far this season, and the Eagles are absolutely loaded with receiving weapons. If Washington struggled to contain Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, what’s it going to do with AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert? On the flip side, we just watched Darius Slay and the Eagles secondary terrorize Kirk Cousins on Monday night. Do we really think Carson Wentz is going to buck that trend?
The Eagles own the physical advantage in this game as well. The Commanders pass rush has some juice behind Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen, but the Eagles offensive line has been excellent. Washington’s pass protection will be put to the test against a strong Eagles defensive line, led by Fletcher Cox and Josh Sweat.
The Eagles are the much better team on paper, and I’ll be surprised if they don’t win this game. There’s some backdoor cover potential with a Washington pass offense that seems to wake up when it’s down by double digits, but unlike their narrow win over Detroit in Week 1, I think Philly slams the door shut this time.
Pick #2: Green Bay Packers +1 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Given the state of the Bucs offense at the moment, I’m shocked they’re favored in this game, even at home. Chris Godwin and Julio Jones haven’t been practicing this week. Mike Evans is suspended for a game after the continuation of his blood feud with Marshon Lattimore.
Brady is going to be rolling out there with Russell Gage, Scotty Miller, and Breshod Perriman as his top receivers. I’ll take a talented Packers secondary in that matchup. The Bucs have had some issues blocking as well, which was to be expected given their offseason turnover across that unit. We saw Dallas take advantage of this in Week 1, and I think the Packers are also well equipped to. Tampa’s defense has been ELITE so far, but their one “weakness” has been a vulnerability to the run game. The Packers have arguably the league’s best running back duo, and will have a chance to control this game on the ground. The Bucs secondary holds a significant advantage over Green Bay’s receiving unit, but Rodgers can mitigate this with his sound decision making.
Long term, I like the Bucs Super Bowl chances over anyone in the NFC, but I think the Pack are catching them at the perfect time this weekend.
John’s Picks (2-2)
Pick #1: Las Vegas Raiders -2 @ Tennessee Titans
I hate the Titans. I just. I have no confidence in them. Ryan Tannehill has looked #bad. Derrick Henry has looked like a shell of himself with only 107 yards rushing through two games, in large part due to how horrible the offensive line has been. Of Henry’s 31 carries, 16 of them he’s been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage! And now Taylor Lewan is out. They’ve shown no ability to create big plays in the passing game and are bottom 5 in the league in overall receiver/tight end skill talent. Bud Dupree is out. Harold Landry tore his ACL and is out for the year. They got repeatedly torched last week against Stefon Diggs and now are going up against Davante Adams coming off a poor performance. And I honestly think the Raiders are a good, playoff caliber team. The Raiders are better. The Raiders need the win just as badly. I think this is a great get-right spot for them.
Pick #2: Jacksonville Jaguars +7 v. Los Angeles Chargers
This wasn’t my original pick, that was going to be the Ravens, but the value is way too good at the moment to not take this as an official play. Circa posted their official lines on Thursday at 1:00 PM. Reports have started circulating Friday that there’s a chance Justin Herbert isn’t able to play this weekend and the line has absolutely tanked. As of typing this on FanDuel the spread is Jags +3!!! We’re getting them at a 4-point discount!
Even without the late line movement I think the Jaguars were a good play at +7. They’ve looked … good!? This year so far. Competent. Well coached. Trevor Lawrence is playing well. Christian Kirk is playing like a guy that deserves all the money they gave him this offseason. The Jags currently rank 2nd in DVOA through two weeks, pretty impressive! There is no such thing as home field advantage when playing against the Chargers, so going on the road, even on a cross country trip, doesn’t scare me off the way it may in other circumstances. Give me Jacksonville to cover this line with or without Herbert.
Mutual Pick (2-0)
Pick: Buffalo Bills -5.5 @ Miami Dolphins
How much longer will we be able to get the Bills at less than a touchdown favorites against anyone? There are some injury issues in the secondary that had us wavering a bit. At the end of the day, this is a statement spot for the Buffalo Juggernauts. If the Dolphins don’t have the miraculous comeback (referenced above) in last week’s game and lose by 14+ as it was trending, what is the spread on this game? What would the spread be on this game 5 weeks from now?
The Dolphins will not be able to stop the Bills. No one will stop the Bills. The Bills also don’t let up at the end of games, which is a large reason why a team like Las Vegas last weekend or a team like the Rams have allowed teams to sneak in late and backdoor cover. This team will throw. And throw. And throw. And throw some more. All while being efficient and effective. Their closing out games strategy is “Give the ball to MF’in Josh Allen and let him decide what’s best to do on that given play.” And it works. Give us Bills minus ‘anything less than a touchdown’ in ANY game they play this year.