Circa Million IV - Week 5 Picks
For those that may have missed it, the boys are participating in the Circa Millions IV contest this year. Well… sort of. None of the risk, none of the reward, other than the pride of knowing we would’ve taken it down had we flew to Vegas and entered.
Through four weeks the two of us sit at 13-7 with Dave carrying the majority of the load. That would put us in a tie for 715th place out of 4,679 total entries (84.7%!). Could be better, could be worse. We’ve gone above .500 all four weeks so far this season, which is pretty impressive! Would be nice to hit a 5-0 week here soon.
As the great Bill Belichick says, we’re onto Week 5.
David’s Picks (6-2)
Pick #1: Minnesota Vikings -7.5 v. Chicago Bears
For a second straight week I’m going with Kirk Cousins, and I think it’s time to adjust one of my golden rules when making these picks: Don’t ride with a quarterback you don’t trust..unless they’re facing a quarterback you trust even less.
I have no idea how the Bears are 2-2. Whatever they are doing on offense, it doesn’t resemble football in the format I’m used to watching. And I should caveat, I’m a Justin Fields believer! I don’t trust him for reasons beyond his control. This is one of the worst situations I’ve ever seen a quarterback placed in, and I have zero faith in the Bears offense to improve their issues this season. That’s good news for a Vikings defense that has struggled so far this season.
The Bears defense has been middle of the pack, ranking 15th in DVOA per Football Outsiders, but they’ve so far faced Trey Lance in a monsoon, Davis Mills, and the deadly Daniel Jones/Tyrod Taylor combo. In their one matchup against a competent passing offense, their secondary was shredded in a 27-10 loss to the Packers. Justin Jefferson will be licking his chops at this matchup. If the Vikings offense is what we think it is, then they should have no problem putting points on the board here, and I don’t think many points will be required to cover this spread.
Pick #2: Green Bay Packers -8 v. New York Giants (in London)
A London Special for the second straight week! John and I barely scraped by in our Vikings -2.5 pick last week, covering on a Saints double-doink to end the game. It’s probably recency bias, but I feel like these London games are always a little weird and therefore risky to pick. But despite the even records for these teams, the Packers have the significant talent advantage in this game.
It’s impressive that the Giants are 3-1 with the personnel they have. The winning formula has been the running game behind a revitalized Saquon, and an opportunistic defense that has forced timely turnovers. Brian Daboll and his staff have done an excellent job with limited personnel, but this matchup represents a significant step up in competition. The Packers haven’t been their usual dominant selves so far this season: it took overtime for them to beat Bailey Zappe and the Patriots last week, and they escaped by the skin of their teeth in Tampa. But both of those results were misleading. If Aaron Jones doesn’t fumble going into the end zone, the Tampa Bay game would have been over by halftime. Take away a rare Rodgers pick-six against the Pats and that’s a comfortable win.
As expected, it’s been an early season adjustment for the Packers offense post-Davante, but they’re still comfortably a top-10 unit. They have an elite running game they can always lean on, and you don’t need me to tell you what Aaron Rodgers is capable of. Meanwhile, the Giants defense is a bottom-10 unit so far, and that’s against an easy slate of opponents. This should be the week the Packers offense kicks into another gear. The Packers defense may have issues slowing down Saquon, but I think their secondary can keep the Giants offense one-dimensional.
The Packers are overdue for a 30 point performance, and Giants games are usually a struggle to reach their 20-23 point ceiling. It wouldn’t shock me if this ended up being a competitive game, but the upside of having Aaron Rodgers vs. Daniel Jones is something I couldn’t pass up.
John’s Picks (4-4)
Pick #1: San Francisco 49ers -6.5 @ Carolina Panthers
How are the Panthers going to score on San Francisco? DeMeco Ryans’ defense has been smothering this year and the Panthers offense has been … the opposite of that.
Last week against the Rams, the 49ers allowed only 3.5 yards/play, recorded 7 sacks, had a pick-6 and forced Los Angeles into 15 3rd downs. According to Warren Sharp, that’s only the third time since 2000 that a defense has hit those numbers. 41% of drives against them have been 3-and-outs, #1 in the NFL by a considerable margin. They’ve yet to allow a first half touchdown on 22 possessions. They’re 1st in the league in EPA/Play and 1st in success rate.
On the flip side, the Panthers offense is DEAD LAST in the NFL, 32 out of 32, in EPA/Play and 31st in success rate. They rank 31st in overall DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA. Baker Mayfield has been the least efficient QB this season by a considerable margin and ranks 31st among all qualified QBs in PFF grade. There likely won’t be a bigger mismatch between offense and defense this entire season.
Can the Niners struggle to score at times? Yes. Are they playing on the road, which brings a little more risk into the equation? Yes. But the Niners are pretty dominant when playing from ahead, and this situation couldn’t set up more perfectly to allow them to do so. I’ll be genuinely surprised if the Panthers can score more than one touchdown in this game.
Pick #2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5 v. Atlanta Falcons
Are we calling this the 'angry Tom Brady post-divorce rumors’ spot? The Falcons are the only team still undefeated against the spread which, honestly, kinda worries me! But this is a great get-right situation for Tampa Bay coming off two tough losses to the Packers and the Chiefs.
Cordarrelle Patterson, who a lot of the Falcons offense has been built around, is on the IR. It’s been announced that Kyle Pitts is not going to be available this weekend. The Buccaneers on the other hand are getting healthier - both Russell Gage and Chris Godwin are expected to play again and should be healthier than last week. Opponents are scoring at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL against the Falcons and the newly healthy Bucs should be able to feast.
Tom Brady is 8-2 against the spread off back-to-back losses (10-0 straight up lifetime v. Atlanta!) and with some of the later breaking news, this line has actually moved on the books to -10 in the Buccaneers favor. We get it for this contest at 8.5. I’ll always trust Brady in favorable bounce back spots.
Mutual Pick (3-1)
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -5 @ Arizona Cardinals
There are so many statistics that point in the Eagles’ favor this week. Courtesy of the Action Network:
When the Eagles have the ball
If a QB has 3+ seconds to throw on drop backs against the Cardinals, they’ve been getting shredded. +0.70 EPA/attempt (dead last). 11.9 yards/attempt (dead last). Jalen Hurts has had the 5th longest time to throw in the NFL so far this season playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football.
The Eagles are 4th in overall offensive DVOA, 4th in pass DVOA and 6th in rush DVOA. The Cardinals defense is 29th in overall DVOA and 28th in pass defense DVOA.
The Eagles are #1 in yards per play.
The Eagles offensive line ranks #1 on Pro Football Focus.
The Eagles run 66% of their run plays with a zone concept. The Cardinals allow 5.95 yards per carry against zone blocked runs.
The Cardinals defense is last in the league in sacks and 24th in pass yards allowed per attempt.
When the Cardinals have the ball
The Eagles are #3 in overall defense DVOA and #2 in pass defense DVOA. The Cardinals are #22 in overall offensive DVOA and #25 in pass offense DVOA.
The Eagles are #1 in the NFL in pass completion rate allowed (only 56%).
The Eagles are #2 in the NFL in yards per attempt allowed (5.5 yards).
Kyler Murray is last in the NFL among starters in yards per attempt and air yards per attempt.
The Cardinals have 0 first quarter points, the lowest amount of 1st half points/drive, the 2nd lowest amount of TDs/drive and the 3rd highest punt rate.
The Eagles pass defense allows only 4.3 yards per pass play called, the best in the league by a considerable margin.
The Cardinals offense is #22 in the NFL on 1st down. The Eagles defense #1 on second down and #2 on 3rd/4th down.
Trust your eyes. Trust the math. The Eagles are playing at a high level. The Cardinals have been smoke and mirrors when they’ve won games.