Circa Million IV - Week 4 Picks
For those that may have missed it, the boys are participating in the Circa Millions IV contest this year. Well… sort of. None of the risk, none of the reward, other than the pride of knowing we would’ve taken it down had we flew to Vegas and entered.
It was John’s birthday weekend so he went a little soft on the analysis. The boys look to keep their above .500 streak alive and intact.
David’s Picks (5-1)
Pick #1: Dallas Cowboys -3 vs. Washington Commanders
This line is ridiculous, and now I’m forced to say it: the Cooper Rush-led Dallas Cowboys are underrated. Nobody gave them a chance against the Bengals in Week 2. They won. They were underdogs against the New York Daniel Jones’ in Week 3. They won, and I’d say more comprehensively than the scoreline indicates. If CeeDee Lamb doesn’t drop a sure thing touchdown in the first half, that game was drifting into blowout territory. So how have they kept things afloat? Because they continue to do 2 things very well: run the ball and pressure the quarterback into oblivion.
On the rushing front, they should have a field day against Washington: the Cowboys have averaged 4.7 yards per rush this season, and Washington has allowed 5.4 yards per carry through 3 games. As for the pass rush, Dallas leads the league in sacks heading into Week 4, with Micah Parsons looking impossible to block and DeMarcus Lawrence rounding back into superstar form. On the other end, Washington has allowed the 2nd most sacks in the league, just behind the league leading Bengals, who were torched for 6 sacks when they played Dallas 2 weeks ago.
While Cooper Rush has filled in admirably, he’s very much a game manager who limits the team’s explosiveness in the passing game. One of these weeks it’s going to bite the Cowboys, but it shouldn’t matter when their opponent can do nothing to limit their strengths. Prove me wrong, Carson Wentz..
Pick #2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Deciding on my 2nd pick this week was a struggle. I liked Lions -4 vs. Seattle at first, but can’t go that route with D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown out. I could fade the Cardinals, who are a total mess, but then I have to ride with Baker. Can’t do that, especially after my criticism of John’s “Bad QB” strategy.
I landed on the Bucs, and it feels risky. Like last week, their injury report is still filled with basically their entire receiving corps. Mike Evans will be back from suspension, but Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, and Russell Gage are all practicing in a limited capacity right now. If Brady has a healthy group to work with, a vulnerable Chiefs secondary presents an opportunity to finally get this offense going.
How the Bucs’ elite defense matches up against against the mighty Mahomes will be very interesting. You can never count out Mahomes, but their passing offense has looked much less explosive without Tyreek Hill, and Tampa may have the best secondary in the league. I think that matchup leans Tampa, and I may well regret that notion.
There’s obviously a lot going on in Florida beyond football right now. It’s hard to know if the aftermath of Hurricane Ian will have a galvanizing or jarring effect on these teams, especially a Bucs team that’s being impacted so close to home. Ultimately, a football game feels pretty small in the face of a natural disaster, but I’ll be rooting for Tampa to get a win for their surrounding communities that are struggling.
John’s Picks (3-3)
Birthday weekend! Wrote less analysis this week. Went with my #1 & #2 confidence pool plays.
Pick #1: Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 v. Denver Broncos
This line in some respects makes all the sense in the world, and none at all. I’m going back to the ‘this team is too good to start the season 0 - __’ well because it’s really hard for me to envision a team as talented as the Raiders starting 0-4. Denver has struggled to score all year. Raiders are in total desperation mode. Playing at home. They’re favored for a reason. #VegasKnows.
Pick #2: Green Bay Packers -9.5 v. New England Patriots
I expect and consider the Packers to be one of the upper echelon teams in the NFL this season. I expect and consider the Patriots to be one of the lower echelon teams in the NFL this season. The Patriots are expected to be without Mac Jones, on the road, facing a Packers team that should only continue to improve as the year goes along. That’s been a common theme for Aaron Rodgers led teams. Same reason I’ve picked against the Patriots before, they lack explosiveness at the skill positions and I find it hard to see them keeping up with Brian Hoyer.
Mutual Pick (2-1)
Pick: Minnesota Vikings -2.5 v. New Orleans Saints (In London)
London games can always get a little weird, but the Saints are traveling across the water and will be without Jameis Winston AND Michael Thomas. There are also rumblings that Alvin Kamara may miss the game as well. The Saints are an average team missing a few of their best players, facing an above average team that is giving less than a field goal. We like the Vikings.