We’ve slowly… slowly… slowly dripped our way back towards the middle of the pack. That’s ok though! At 16-14 (53%) we are STILL!!! (just barely) beating the vig. Profitability baby!
For those that may have missed it, the boys are participating in the Circa Millions IV contest this year. Well… sort of. None of the risk, none of the reward, other than the pride of knowing we would’ve taken it down had we flew to Vegas and entered.
David’s Picks (6-6)
It’s been a rough couple of weeks to say the least. But when we’re down, we don’t stay down. A 2-0 week is my only option.
Pick #1: Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Detroit Lions
Last time we saw Detroit they looked like the worst team in the league, getting decimated by the Patriots 29-0. Now they visit a superior Dallas team and are only getting a touchdown? I’LL TAKE.
The Eagles are all the rage right now, but to me the Cowboys aren’t getting enough credit for staying above water after Dak’s injury. I’d have considered this pick even if Cooper Rush was starting. But the good news for me, and bad news for Lions fans, is that Dak is making his return this week. Could there be cobwebs? Sure. But facing the league’s worst pass defense per DVOA, a defense that allows a whopping 7.9 yards per pass attempt, I feel far more confident that this will be a quick bounce back. Even if Dak takes some time to get in a rhythm, they can just run the ball on the league’s 2nd worst run defense. If you couldn’t tell, the Lions defense is AWFUL.
And that only covers the Cowboys massive advantage on offense. We haven’t even talked about the best unit on this team: their world-eating pass rush. The Lions have actually allowed the lowest adjusted sack rate of any team so far this season, but good luck keeping that up against Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence. Dallas always gets pressure on the quarterback. And Jared Goff always struggles facing pressure. And Goff will be throwing at an elite Dallas secondary allowing a measly 5.9 yards per pass attempt. This is not a good recipe for the Lions.
Lock this one in, we’re halfway to 2-0. Now for the main event..
Pick #2: Seattle Seahawks +5.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers
Turning this ship around requires boldness. I love riding the big favorites, but all that’s given me is a .500 record on the season. It’s time to ride a big underdog.
I’ve watched the Chargers closely all season. I have them in John and I’s wins pool competition. They’re immensely talented. But the actual on-the-field product is…underwhelming. Whether it’s all their injuries (a yearly ritual with the Chargers) or poor coaching, the offense is way too conservative. They have Justin Herbert’s rocket arm, and yet every game feels like a dump-off parade to Austin Ekeler.
It’s been enough to win some games so far, but their only win by more than 5 points was against the Texans. 6 points is way too many against the Seahawks. At some point, Vegas and the general public will catch up to the fact that the Seahawks are a solid team. Their offense predictably dropped from its league-topping perch last week, but it was picked up by a defense starting to find its groove.
Even if Keenan Allen returns, I think the Hawks will get some pressure on Herbert, and keep the Chargers offense stuck in their conservative ways. That should be enough to keep the game close, if not outright win it.
John’s Picks (6-6)
You can call me a lot of things, but you can’t call me inconsistent! Week 6 saw me go 1-1 for literally the sixth week in a row. Could be better! Could be worse! 2-0 week incoming 😈
Pick #1: Washington Commanders +4.5 v. Green Bay Packers
I originally had the Packers as a play, and as I was trying to type out my explanation, I realized that … I actually like the other side better? I was surprised originally to see that ‘the sharps’ on Action Network are siding with Washington but the more I dug in, the more it swung me. 83% of the money is on the Commanders right now with only 54% of the bets.
Are we sure the Packers are any good? I have the pre-conceived notion that they are, but that notion is really getting challenged the more we watch them play. They beat the Bears in week two pretty soundly, as they always do. They beat the Bucs in Tampa Bay and we all accepted that as a meaningful victory. The four games besides that? Blown out by Minnesota. Won in OT at home against the Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe led Patriots. Lost to a team without a WR corp in the Giants. Blown out at home by the Jets who didn’t even try to throw the ball. Is this a team that can go on the road and win a game by five points? I’m not convinced. The offensive line has struggled to run block and pass block. They have no WR that can create separation deep down the field right now. Most especially, Aaron Rodgers is playing like a mediocre quarterback at this point in the season. He’s currently below average in total QBR, below average in yards per attempt and below average in expected points added per dropback. Whereas the deep ball has been a weapon in the past, right now the Packers rank bottom third in the league in every major category when attempting to push the ball down the field. If they can’t run the ball. And they can’t pass block. And they can’t create separation. And they can’t push the ball down the field. How are they supposed to blow ANYONE out??
Look, the Commanders are awful. Carson Wentz may have a broken finger which may prevent him from playing this weekend, that could actually end up being a good thing. I just can’t take the Packers -4.5 against anyone right now. Brian Robinson is back and looked good last week against the Bears. Antonio Gibson looked good in his limited carries. The Packers rank 32nd out of 32 in run defense so far this year, the Commanders shouldn’t have to throw the ball often to stay competitive in this game. I’m taking the points in what should be a low scoring, ground and pound, grind it out game.
Pick #2: New York Jets +1 @ Denver Broncos
This line initially opened at +7.5!!! and has been bet all the way down to +1. I don’t care that we’re getting this at a much worse number than the open, I’m in full fade the Broncos and Russell Wilson mode. We’ve learned over the last few days that Wilson has a “fairly significant” hamstring injury which may limit or sideline him. The Broncos offensive players were visibly showing frustrations on the sidelines on Monday night in their game against the Chargers. Latavius Murray came off the street and had to handle 15 carries the other night because the Broncos don’t trust their RB room without Javonte Williams. The situation is bad. The situation has been bad right from game one under Nathanial Hackett and I don’t think he nor Wilson has enough built up equity with this team to right the ship.
I’m buying the Jets. They’ve ranked 4th in overall DVOA the last three weeks winning in Pittsburgh (which seems a little more impressive after the Bucs lost last week), blowing out the Dolphins and blowing out the Packers in Green Bay. They’ve unleashed stud RB prospect Breece Hall during that time period (17-18-20 carries over the last three games) and he’s responded to the tune of 396 all-purpose yards. We went to the Jets well last week because we saw the growth the young core is experiencing right before our eyes and we’re going back to it this week.
The Jets have established an identity. The Broncos have still been searching for one unsuccessfully. This is a case of two teams trending in opposite directions. I’m riding the one stepping on the field this weekend with confidence that what they’re doing is working.
Mutual Pick (4-2)
Pick: New England Patriots -8 v. Chicago Bears
This was both of our most confident play of the weekend.
The Patriots are likely overvalued a bit right now after a 29-0 win over the Lions and a 38-15 win over the Browns the last two weeks, but there’s nothing that leads to us expect the Bears to be able to keep this one close no matter the circumstances. The Bears are dreadful and one dimensional offensively. Who typically struggles against Bill Belichick led teams? Dreadful and one dimensional offenses. The Patriots will take away the run and force Fields to beat them through the air. They’ll shift coverage to Darnell Mooney and make one of Equanimeous St. Brown or Velus Jones win one on one matchups. Which they won’t be able to do. They’ll exert their will at the line of scrimmage on the offensive side of the ball and eventually pull away. That’s the way we expect this game to go.
Justin Fields is 4-9 against the spread as an underdog in his career, 1-4 against the spread as more than a TD underdog. When forced to throw and lead his team from behind, he hasn’t proven capable of doing that yet at this stage in his career. Give us the side with the coaching advantage, the line of scrimmage advantage and the home field advantage on Monday night to win by two touchdowns.