Another 4-1 week last week. That makes three straight! Up to a 62.2% win percentage on the year. We checked the standings… if we were actually in the competition we’d be in 266th place out of 4,683 contestants. Not too bad! Need to finish strong.
For those that may have missed it, the boys are participating in the Circa Millions IV contest this year. Well… sort of. None of the risk, none of the reward, other than the pride of knowing we would’ve taken it down had we flew to Vegas and entered.
David’s Picks (11-7)
Pick #1: Buffalo Bills -3 v. Minnesota Vikings
It’s time for this fraudulent Vikings team to come back down to earth. Nobody thinks the Vikings have the quality of a 7-1 team. Not even Vikings fans. Despite their record, they rate as only the 18th best team in football per Football Outsiders. The Dolphins are the only team they’ve beaten with a winning record. And Tua was still in concussion protocol. They are the walking embodiment of this meme.
And with Josh Allen’s elbow injury throwing a cloud of uncertainty over this game, are they really going to get away with it AGAIN!?? But then I realized who the Bills backup QB was: none other than Case Keenum. Vikings fans may remember him from a certain play. He’d once again be throwing to Stefon Diggs. It’s too easy to envision the Vikings season being spoiled by two of their formerly beloved players.
From the Bills perspective, the urgency will be sky high regardless of whose suiting up. When things have clicked this season, they’ve played at an untouchable level, but their divisional rivals are nipping at their heels. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where they don’t win the division, but dropping a game like this would strengthen that possibility. So ask yourself this: is it more likely this average Vikings team gets to 8-1, or that this great Bills team digs their heels in and guts out a home win, regardless of the circumstances?
Pick #2: Tennessee Titans -2.5 v. Denver Broncos
This line took me by surprise on first glance. Titans getting less than a field goal at home against this abhorrent Broncos offense? But then I viewed their injury report. Let’s just say, it’s longer than a menu at a Chinese restaurant. Ryan Tannehill remains questionable to play, but it appears he could finally return this week. That would be huge for a team that’s had to rely almost solely on the run game the last few weeks. Jeffery Simmons not playing is a big blow to the Titans defense. He’s the most dominant interior lineman in the league that nobody talks about.
I’m still confident in the Titans for 3 reasons:
While the Broncos defense has been excellent, and really the only reason this team has even a single win this year, their weakness is defending the run. The Titans have a really big, fast, and scary running back you may have heard of.
The Titans defense has been balling lately, as they displayed by slowing down the Kansas City offense in Arrowhead and almost stealing that game. They don’t get after the quarterback, but they’re the best run defense in the league. Simmons plays a critical part in shutting down the run, but even with his absence they should be able to shut down this timid Broncos offense.
The coaching gap here is about as wide as it gets. Mike Vrabel is Houdini. Nathaniel Hackett is like a bad magician on America’s Got Talent.
TITANS COUNTRY. LETS RIDE!!
John’s Picks (11-7)
Pick #1: Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions
Don’t tell David I’m finally coalescing but yes, I have officially climbed aboard the Justin Fields train. He’s been the main conductor since the draft, sticking with him through thick and thin, and the way Fields has played the last few weeks it looks like it’s going to pay off. Two fantastic videos came out this week about the progress we’re seeing, one by former NFL QB Josh McCown and one by The Ringer NFL analyst Ben Solak.
I watched those videos so you don’t have to. You should! They’re great! Especially the Solak one. But you don’t have to. Here’s the gist:
Fields is being utilized in a different way by the coaching staff since the Patriots game in Week 7. In that game? 10 designed runs for Fields. Week 8 v. Dallas? 5 designed runs. Last week v. Miami? 6 designed runs. Solak points out in the video that prior to that Monday night game in New England, in Fields’ first 17 starts of his career, he’d only had 29 total designed runs called for him. 29 in his first 17 games. 21 in his last 3! And guess what? That’s led to an offense that was bottom six in the NFL in Weeks 1-6, suddenly producing stats that put them top-5 in the NFL over weeks 7-9.
The Bears scored 90 points in the first six weeks. The Bears scored 94 points in the last three weeks. And that included games against two top five defenses in New England and Dallas! Both on the road!
Heading into last week’s game against Green Bay, the Lions fielded the NFL’s worst defense. They held the Packers to 9 points last week and still give up an NFL worst 29.3 points per game. Can anyone tell me the last time the Detroit Lions won a game on the road? It was actually against these same Chicago Bears back on December 6th, 2020. Justin Fields was beating Michigan State 52-12 en route to a national title game appearance that same weekend. 13 straight road losses. Only 3 of those losses have come by 3 or less points.
Give me the team, quarterback and coaching staff vastly improving at a rapid rate at home against one of the league’s bottom feeders, only giving a field goal.
I feel GREAT about this play this week.
Pick #2: Los Angeles Rams -1.5 v. Arizona Cardinals
This is an infrastructure bet. Sean McVay is 11-1 straight up and 10-1-1 ATS in his career against the Cardinals. The Rams have covered the spread by 10.2 PPG in those 12 games. I made the mistake a few weeks back of changing my mind from taking the Vikings to taking the Cardinals. Matthew Stafford is likely to play. Kyler Murray is a game time decision. I made the mistake of changing my mind and backing the Cardinals a few weeks ago in this space - I learned my lesson. The Rams need a win just as badly as the Cardinals do. They’re playing at home. They’re more talented. They’re better coached.
Rule: When given the chance to bet against the Cardinals and give under a FG, take the opportunity. No more messing that up.
Mutual Pick (6-3)
Pick: Miami Dolphins -3.5 v. Cleveland Browns
The Dolphins love a good shootout. The Browns are going to oblige.
Per Football Outsiders, the Dolphins have the 2nd best offense in the league. The Browns have the 24th best defense. The Browns have the 5th best offense. The Dolphins have the 27th best defense. That’s going to lead to many, many points.
The key matchup will be how the Dolphins run defense, which ranks 7th in the league, holds up against Nick Chubb, the best running back on the planet. You’re not going to slow down Chubb from a per-play efficiency standpoint. The key is limiting his touches in general. When Chubb has 20 or more carries this season, the Browns are 3-0. When he has less than 20 carries: 0-5. The Browns are built to play from ahead. When teams build a lead on them, Chubb gets less carries and Jacoby Brissett is forced to bail them out with his arm. Brissett has played admirably this year, but that’s not his comfort zone.
The Dolphins offense will understand the assignment.