Circa Million IV - Week 8 Picks
The Boys both came through last weekend, putting up a 4-1 week for the first time since week one. Need to keep it rolling!
For those that may have missed it, the boys are participating in the Circa Millions IV contest this year. Well… sort of. None of the risk, none of the reward, other than the pride of knowing we would’ve taken it down had we flew to Vegas and entered.
David’s Picks (8-6)
Pick #1: Dallas Cowboys -9.5 v. Chicago Bears
Dallas has been my winning ticket all season. Chicago has somehow burned me multiple times. Something has to give here.
The Bears are a bit of a wild card with Fields’ athleticism. They’ve proven that much. But they match up terribly with the Cowboys. Per Football Outsiders DVOA, the Cowboys have the league’s best pass rush. The Bears have the league’s worst pass protection. Dallas has a top 10 rushing offense. The Bears have a bottom 10 rushing defense. The one thing the Bears do at an above average level is defend the pass, an area where Dallas is still finding its groove as they re-integrate Dak into the offense. One of these weeks they’re going to put it together. Why not against DA BEARS?
Dallas isn’t getting enough respect for being 5-2 after navigating the majority of the season with a backup QB. The Eagles are being treated like the far superior team within their division, despite a close matchup with the Cowboys when Dak was still injured. If Dallas finds its rhythm in the passing game, they should be treated as co-favorites in the NFC. Their defense is the single most dominant unit any NFC team can field, and I’ll continue to ride them until they burn me.
Pick #2: New England Patriots -2.5 @ New York Jets
The Jets haven’t beaten the Patriots since 2015. Last season, the Patriots won their two matchups vs. the Jets by a combined score of 79-19.
I understand the Jets are much improved this year. The defense is real. They’ve nailed their recent draft picks on that end, with Quinnen Williams and rookie Sauce Gardner playing like superstars this season. But 4 of their 5 wins were against the following quarterbacks: Jacoby Brissett, Kenny Pickett, Skylar Thompson, and Brett Rypien. There is a 2% chance your mom recognizes a single one of those names. Frankly, I had never heard of Skylar Thompson and Brett Rypien before watching them get torn to shreds by the Jets defense. Would you be shocked if they never started an NFL game again?
There’s also potential the Jets’ offense craters after losing Breece Hall with a torn ACL. The run game was the only thing propping up a pretty bad offense. Leaning on Zach Wilson to dissect a Bill Belichick defense with his arm is not a great formula. I’m buying that the Jets are moving in the right direction. But I’m not letting their 5-2 record fool me into thinking they’ve become Patriots-conquerors just yet.
John’s Picks (8-6)
Pick #1: Arizona Cardinals +3.5 v. Minnesota Vikings
Two things I’ve done this year in this space and personally:
Ride the Vikings.
Fade the Cardinals.
Now I get the chance to do both at the same time! But wait? I’m doing the opposite? Yes I am actually. I think this is a great spot to back the Cardinals with DeAndre Hopkins back and the Cardinals getting 3 1/2 points. The Cardinals have been considerably better with Hopkins in the lineup, it’s almost ridiculous how much different they are as a team. Since joining Arizona in 2020, Hopkins has played 27 games and sat 13 games. Per Chris Raybon at the Action Network, just look at the difference:
27.9 with v. 20.1 without points per game (+7.8)
7.67 with v. 6.28 without yards per pass attempt (+1.39)
6.84 with v. 5.48 without net yards per play (+1.36)
+6 point differential with v. -4.4 without (+10.4!)
55.6% winning percentage against the spread with v. 46.2% without (+9.4%)
Last week in Hopkins first game back against the Saints on Thursday night the Cardinals covered with ease, peppering him with 14 targets along the way. The Vikings secondary has been average all season and on the flip side, the Cardinals secondary rates #1 in DVOA against #1 WRs (Justin Jefferson this week) and #3 against #2 WRs (Adam Thielen this week). The Cardinals blitz at the second highest rate in the league (36.7%) and Kirk Cousins’ passer rating drops from 96.1 to 68.2 when facing a blitz. Last thing? Cardinals are 15-3-2 as a road underdog since Kliff Kingsbury has been the coach. For some reason, they seem to play better on the road.
Read that article Chris wrote. It’ll have you feeling just as confident about this pick as I do now.
Pick #2: Miami Dolphins -3.5 @ Detroit Lions
I think the fact that Tua Tagovailoa has missed time has suppressed the spread in this game. The Lions defense ranks dead last in the league in DVOA and now has to face Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle? Did I mention they also allow the second highest percentage of explosive pass plays in the NFL? Good luck.
The Dolphins are 4-0 when Tua plays the majority of the game. They’re 0-3 when he does not. The Lions offense has fallen off a cliff and while D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown are both expected back, I struggle to see them keeping up with Miami in this game. I’m siding with the team that has scalps of the Bills and Ravens in their closet when fully healthy against one of the worst five teams in the NFL, giving only 3-1/2 points.
Mutual Pick (4-3)
Pick: Tennessee Titans -2.5 @ Houston Texans
Looks like Ryan Tannehill won’t be playing in this one. Will it matter? I doubt it.
The Texans are the worst team in the NFL. And the single worst aspect of their team is the run defense. The Titans employ Derrick Henry, who specializes in running the football. With force. And he LOVES playing against the Texans.
It appears Malik Willis will be making his first start at quarterback. He was clocked running a sub-4.4 second 40 yard dash. Very fast. Also very raw throwing the football. If for whatever reason you choose to zero in on this game, expect the Titans to throw like 5 total passes. And win by 3 or more points.