Off a 4-1 week! Boys are back on a roll. Going to finish strong. Still searching for our first perfect week.
David’s Picks (14-10-2)
Pick #1: Dallas Cowboys -17.5 v. Houston Texans
The Dallas Cowboys are better than the Houston Texans in every phase of the game. Much better. The gargantuan 17.5 point spread speaks for itself. Despite that, the Texans have only lost 1 game by 18 or more points this season. But their already awful roster will be even thinner, with CB Derek Stingley Jr. and WRs Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins all out. They’re overdue for a good ol’ fashioned ass kicking. No team in the NFL has delivered them more frequently than the Cowboys, with win margins of 24-6, 49-29, 40-3, and 54-19 on their resume this season.
The Cowboys have delivered for me against the spread all season. Are the Texans really going to be the team to end the streak?
Pick #2: Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 @ New York Giants
This is a massive game for the Giants, but I don’t know how they can overcome an injury report that’s longer than a Harry Potter book at this point. Their secondary and offensive line are ravaged. Not a great combination when you’re facing AJ Brown and the league’s 2nd ranked pass rush per Football Outsiders. The Giants will also be without Leonard Williams on the defensive line against the Eagles league-leading rush offense. Saquon is playing, but has been banged up in recent weeks and hasn’t matched his early season production.
The Giants have had a great season even to be in playoff contention. They’ve outperformed their roster talent all season. Maybe Brian Daboll can coax another magical performance from this team, but it’s a tall task against an elite Eagles side. My hunch is this a beatdown.
John’s Picks (15-10-1)
Pick #1: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 v. Baltimore Ravens
Homer pick! But it worked last time… and I’m going back to the well. After a disappointing start to the season, I’ve actually been encouraged by how the Steelers are playing lately. Don’t look now but over the last four weeks the Steelers are 3-1 with two road victories and the only loss coming in a competitive game against the Bengals. A large reason for this? For one, the Steelers got healthier out of the bye and TJ Watt returned to the lineup. But two, the re-emergence of Najee Harris. He’s finally started to play like the guy they drafted him to be over the last four weeks. Take out the Colts game in which he was in and out of the lineup and never returned after halftime due to injury, Harris has put up games of 99, 90-2 TDs and 86 since the Steelers , not elite numbers, but far and away the high watermarks on the season and from an eye test perspective, he’s committed to more north and south, physical running.
Lamar Jackson is going to miss this game. The Ravens offense, even with Lamar, and largely due to a lack of weapons and injuries at the skill positions, has already been struggling. Tyler Huntley took the majority of snaps in six games last season and in the game last week - the Ravens are a combined 1-6 in those games. In those seven contests they’ve scored 17 / 16 (W) / 22 / 30 / 19 / 13 / 10. That 30 was against Green Bay last season where the Ravens scored two touchdowns in the final five minutes of the game. This isn’t a team as currently constructed that’s built to put up high numbers.
This Steelers team needs to keep games low scoring and play in a grind-it-out style to win games. This game is set up for that to happen. This spread opened as Steelers +2 and even with 76% of the money on the Ravens according to Action Network, the line has moved all the way to Steelers -2 1/2. I’m excited to ride with my guys again this week.
Pick #2: Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 v. Cleveland Browns
The Bengals are hitting their stride. Including last week’s win against Kansas City, they’ve now won 6 of their last 7 games. They did that without Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon both playing together at full strength for the majority of the stretch. The Browns have seemingly had their number since both Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland) and Zac Taylor (Cincinnati) took over their respective teams, including this season. The Browns are 4-1 against the Bengals in the last five and that one loss in this seven game stretch I referenced above was a 32-13 beatdown on a Monday night in Cleveland.
Deshaun Watson returned to the Browns last week and while he raises the ceiling of the team moving forward, Jacoby Brissett *acccttuuuaalllyyy* was playing pretty well! And has looked considerably better this season than Watson did last week. It was sloppy. And gross. And overall bleh with Watson behind center. Understandably so! He hasn’t played football in two years. With a (nearly) healthy offense, playing at home, with every game having a big impact on the division race with Baltimore, I expect the Bengals to come out and make a statement on Sunday. I don’t think the Browns will be capable of keeping pace offensively.
Mutual Pick (8-5)
Pick: Miami Dolphins -3.5 v. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are awful defending the pass this season. Some fun stats that we read throughout the week:
To quickly recap: The Chargers can’t stop play action. They can’t stop throws in the deep middle of the field. They can’t stop plays where the receivers are in motion pre-snap. They’ve been horrible at giving up explosives. They give up the most yards on first down. They give up the most plays of 30+ yards. They struggle against efficient offenses.
Gee… it sure would suck for Los Angeles to have to play an efficient, explosive offense that uses a lot of motion to get into creative formations and looks right now.
Oh, wait. Uhhh… wheels up.