The 2022 Football Wins Pool, Part 1: College Football
2 Men. 1 Winner. Reputations are on the line once again. Who will prevail?
Welcome Readers! With football season back, we wanted to get this newsletter going once again. To kick things off this season, we are doing another wins pool, similar to what we did for March Madness, except we are breaking it into two competitions: one for the College Football season and one for the NFL season. Part 1 this week will be focused on our College Football competition. We’ll post Part 2 for our NFL competition next week.
An overview of the rules:
This is a 2 person competition: Team David Lurie vs. Team John Iezzi
We each drafted 12 teams. Throughout the college football season (including the postseason), we will be tallying all wins for the teams we selected. Whoever’s group of teams has more wins on aggregate at the end of the season wins the competition.
We were each limited to 2 teams per Power Five conference, and 2 teams from either the AAC or Independent group of teams (i.e. BYU, Notre Dame, etc.).
We flipped a coin to determine the draft order. The winner of the coin flip chose whether to pick first, or defer and get both the 2nd and 3rd picks. We then rotated picks back and forth from there to the end of the draft.
Team Lurie won the coin toss and chose to defer and take the 2nd and 3rd picks.
TL;DR: Draft Results (in order of selection)
Team Lurie: Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Texas A&M, Oregon, NC State, Wisconsin, USC, Pitt, UCF, Oklahoma State
Team Iezzi: Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, Utah, Houston, Notre Dame, Miami, Baylor, Texas, Michigan State, UCLA, Ole Miss
We’ve also posted our thoughts on each of the selected teams below. If you’re looking for a mini-preview of the upcoming season, read on ahead and enjoy!
Pick #1: Alabama (John Iezzi)
John Iezzi (JI): This quote from the Athlon preview stuck with me the entire summer:
"If you're sick of Bama, buckle up, because it's going to be the longest season of your life. Right now, they project to have the best offensive and defensive player in the country and have the deepest roster in the best conference in the nation. The more you look at the roster, the more anticlimactic the 2022 season looks. They were banged up against a once-in-a-generation defense they'd already beaten; otherwise they'd be set for a repeat run this season.”
Will Anderson is the best player in college football.
If you don’t think he is, it’s probably because you think Bryce Young is. They added Jahmyr Gibbs. It’s stupid how talented they are again. Jameson Williams got hurt in the natty. They considered it a ‘rebuilding year’. And they STILL were a quarter away from winning the national title again last season.
They’re the safest pick until further notice. What’s the floor here? 12 wins??
Pick #2: Georgia (David Lurie)
David Lurie (DL): The Georgia Bulldogs are going to win it all again, John. I understand Alabama wins every other year and is coming off a championship loss. I understand Ohio State has an incredible amount of talent. But I believe Georgia has the most complete team in the country once again.
I know I know.. they lost a bunch of starters on defense you’re saying. They’re due for regression, right?
Here are the final rankings for every Georgia defense since Kirby Smart took over the program:
1st, 2nd, 2nd, 7th, 6th, 19th (his first year on the job).
Strip out his first year and that’s an average defensive ranking of 4th. It appears to me that Kirby has this whole “reload, not rebuild” concept figured out.
There’s no downplaying the talent they lost from their national championship team, with 15 total players drafted, including 5 first rounders. Let’s instead focus on the stars of this year’s team:
Jalen Carter (JR., Defensive Lineman): You could make a strong argument Carter was the best interior lineman on Georgia’s team last year, even though they had Jordan Davis, who was drafted 13th overall in the NFL Draft. He led the country in Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) Pass Rush Grade at his position, and ranked 2nd in Pressure Rate.
Brock Bowers (SO., Tight End): It’s not hyperbole to suggest that Bowers had the best true freshman season for a Tight End in college football history. He was the #1 ranked player at his position per PFF, finishing his season with 882 receiving yards and 13 TDs.
Kelee Ringo (JR., Cornerback): You may remember this guy intercepting Bryce Young and returning it for a touchdown to seal Georgia’s first national title in 41 years. Casual.
Nolan Smith (SR., Defensive End): The #1 overall recruit in the 2019 class, Smith hasn’t put up eye-popping pass rush numbers in his Georgia career thus far, but that’s more attributable to Kirby’s egalitarian system than a lack of talent.
Add all of these components together and SP+ (a measure of college football efficiency) projects them to have the 5th best offense in the country, and the 2nd best defense. So what are the concerns with this team? I’ll address a couple that I’ve heard:
Stetson Bennett is fine, but he’s a system quarterback that lacks the upside that Bryce Young and CJ Stroud bring to the table.
If you feel this way about Bennett, you’re correct. Young and Stroud could be the 1st and 2nd picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, while Bennett was famously a walk-on when he first arrived on Georgia’s campus. But any questions about how Bennett would respond if forced to win a big game with his arm were answered in the national championship last season.
After throwing what we all thought would be an infamous interception to start the 4th quarter, Bennett calmly led Georgia down the field for two straight touchdown drives to snatch the championship from Alabama. He delivered in the biggest moment of his athletic career. I think it’s time we put the “system” label to bed.
How are they going to replace all the skill position talent they lost, including George Pickens, James Cook and Zamir White?
I’ll start with Pickens, and the solution to replacing his production is actually quite easy: They don’t really have to. Pickens tore his ACL last spring and only appeared in 4 games for the Bulldogs last season. In their two College Football Playoff games, he had two catches total. Their offense hummed along without him last year, and I expect Adonai Mitchell and Ladd McConkey to more than make up for his lost production.
On the running back front– much like Georgia’s defense, they are a factory that constantly reloads at this position. Before James Cook and Zamir White were drafted in 2022, Georgia produced the following NFL running backs in the Kirby Smart era:
D’Andre Swift: 2nd round pick of the Detroit Lions in 2020
Sony Michel: 1st round pick of the New England Patriots in 2018
Nick Chubb: 2nd round pick of the Cleveland Browns in 2018
It’s less a matter of how they replace their running backs and more-so a question of which Georgia running backs will be future members of your fantasy football team.
As far as this competition, it’s mighty nice for my first pick to compete in the SEC East and not the SEC West. Georgia projects to play the 44th ranked strength of schedule in 2022. Key games include:
Oregon in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff game in Atlanta to start the season.
Home vs. Auburn and Tennessee
Away vs. South Carolina, Mississippi State, and Kentucky
Florida in the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” in Jacksonville
This was a dominant champion last year. Take away their 1 loss in the SEC Championship Game and their closest game besides a Week 1 slugfest with Clemson was a 15 point margin…IN THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME. Kirby Smart has built a powerhouse that is primed to win several championships, not rest on the laurels of last season.
Pick #3: Ohio State (DL)
Year in and year out, the big question with Ohio State isn’t if they’re going to be great. It’s whether or not they can trade punches with the SEC’s elite and actually win a national championship. I believe that they can this season.
This was the best offense in the country last year. Quarterback CJ Stroud was a breakout as a redshirt freshman, and expectations are sky high for him in Year 2 as a starter. They lost 2 receivers to the first round of the NFL Draft (Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave), but they arguably kept the best of the bunch in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. If you need a primer on this guy, go watch his Rose Bowl highlights. Joining him in the receiver’s room are:
Marvin Harrison Jr. (Yes, the son of the NFL legend. I wonder if he’s going to be good?)
Julian Fleming (#3 overall recruit in the 2020 class)
Emeka Egbuka (#10 overall recruit in the 2021 class)
The run game will also be electric, with TreVeyon Henderson carrying the ball behind a stout offensive line led by Paris Johnson Jr. (projected 1st round pick) and Dawad Jones (6’8”, 360 lbs with a 7’5” wingspan). SP+ projects this to be the best offense in the country once again. I would agree with the analytics.
The concern with this team is on the defensive end. They struggled last year, ranking 31st in the country. To fix these issues, head coach Ryan Day brought in Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State as defensive coordinator, who did a great job in his former position, leading a Cowboys defense that ranked 4th in the country last year. He’s inheriting a group that has elite talent, including defensive lineman Jack Sawyer (#4 overall recruit in 2021 class) and JT Tuiomoloau (#5 overall recruit in 2021 class). Along with Zach Harrison, they lead a pass rush with a tremendous amount of potential, and an effective pass rush can lift an entire defensive unit. I expect a big improvement on this side of the ball, and so does SP+, projecting them to have the 15th best defense in the country.
The schedule is never easy in the Big Ten East. The Buckeyes get Michigan and Wisconsin at home this year. They’ll need to navigate a few tricky road games at Michigan State and Penn State. Their season starts by hosting Notre Dame in a Week 1 mega-clash, but Notre Dame has struggled in big moments on the national stage.
The Buckeyes have won at least 11 games every season since 2012 (not counting the pandemic shortened season, where they went 9-1 and were a national finalist), and I expect this year to be no different. If the defense makes a leap, they can win the whole thing.
Pick #4: Clemson (JI)
On paper, Clemson is the considerable leader in talent in the ACC once again. Clemson v. the field? I’ll take Clemson and have walked my way to the bank 6 out of the last 7 years.
All the young skill guys they were running out last year are one year older, stronger and should hypothetically be better. I thought they signed the best WR in the region last year in Antonio Williams, he’ll contribute at some point this year. All those freak shows are back on the defensive line: Myles Murphy, Bryan Bresee, Tyler Davis. Xavier Thomas and KJ Henry are back for their 5th seasons. Their defense is going to be really good, again. Between Murphy, Bresee and Trenton Simpson, they have three likely first rounders.
In regards to their ultimate ceiling, it’s going to predominately come down to how Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei plays this year. Unlike last year, if he struggles or Clemson gets themselves into trouble, they can turn to all-world freshman Cade Klubnik who has not so secretly been getting talked up behind the scenes.
We talk about Clemson like they had a down year last year, which they did, for THEM, but they still finished 10-3, with a top 10 SP+ rating, and a top 5 defense. Lol. They’re the understandable odds-on-favorite to win the ACC again this year and I’d be shocked if they won less than 10 games.
Pick #5: Oklahoma (DL)
Lincoln Riley is gone, and he took a lot of talent from last year’s team with him. Those are the facts. Another fact about the Oklahoma football program: since 1999, when Bob Stoops took over the team, they’ve finished in the top 10 of the final AP Poll rankings in 17 out of 23 seasons. Out of the 6 seasons they didn’t finish top 10, they were still ranked in the top 20 three times, the top 25 once, and finished 8-5 in the other two seasons. The program’s level of consistency over the years is simply stunning.
I’m banking on that consistency this year, as the offense has been completely revamped. Gone are Quarterbacks Caleb Williams (transferred to USC) and Spencer Rattler (transferred to South Carolina, the other USC). Stepping in is Dillon Gabriel, after producing huge numbers at UCF prior to a season-ending injury in 2021. He’ll be paired with his former offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby once again, and new head coach Brent Venables.
Assuming a healthy season for Gabriel, I have high expectations for Oklahoma’s offense. They’re loaded at receiver, with Marvin Mims (705 yards and 5 TDs last season) returning along with blue chip recruits Theo Wease and Jalil Farooq. The performance of the offensive line will be critical in keeping Gabriel healthy. They ranked 92nd in sack rate allowed last year, but are led by Left Tackle Anton Harrison.
Venables has a lot of work to do with this team on the defensive side of the ball, but the former defensive coordinator has a legendary resume, including his prior stint at Oklahoma before moving to Clemson. There’s talent to combine with his coaching acumen, including defensive lineman Jalen Redmond, who led the nation in pressure rate at his position, and Justin Broiles and Key Lawrence the secondary. I don’t expect a transformation into an elite unit in Year 1, but I think they can become a top-20 defense with Venable’s guidance.
They are projected to face the 43rd most difficult slate of opponents in 2022. They play Big 12 challengers Baylor and Oklahoma State at home, two games that could be critical in deciding the conference champion.
Don’t let last year’s result fool you. If they can weather the inevitable growing pains, Oklahoma is a step above their Big 12 competition and should retake their place atop the conference.
Pick #6: Michigan (JI)
I don’t think Michigan will be as good as last year, but it’d be really damn hard to be. A few things that really stand out and made me select them here:
Cake walk non-conference schedule. Shouldn’t be stressful. No real potential slip ups. Every win counts.
The rest of the Big Ten is a jumbled mess, and I’d feel terrible about my lineup of teams if David had both Ohio State and Michigan.
They play at Iowa. They play at Ohio State … they’ll likely get obliterated in that game. All the rest of their big games are at home. They avoid Wisconsin and Minnesota and Purdue. They obviously have to replace Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, who would’ve been a first round pick as well if it wasn’t for his injury he suffered at a pre-draft workout, but they’ve recruited well and have a lot of talented guys still on the roster along both lines of scrimmage and at the skill positions.
They’re going to win 9-10 games and be solid again this year.
Pick #7: Cincinnati (DL)
Cincy is being slept on this year! Yes, they lost a significant amount of production from last year’s generational team. They’re not going to make the playoff again this season. But ever since Luke Fickell came to town, they’ve been a lock for double digit wins, averaging 12 wins a season over the last 4 years, and I don’t see any reason why this train doesn’t keep rolling in 2022.
9 starters were drafted to the NFL, but there’s a ton of talent on this team that’s ready to step in. Linebacker Deshawn Pace is back as a key contributor from last year’s 9th ranked defense, producing an all-around stat line: 95 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, and 4 interceptions. Joining him from the transfer portal is his brother, Ivan Pace, who performed at an elite level for Miami (OH) last year. They will be the engine for a defense that can still perform at a high level despite its personnel losses.
Desmond Ridder’s departure leaves an ongoing quarterback battle between Evan Prater, a 4-star dual threat from the 2020 class, and Ben Bryant, who threw for over 3,000 yards on 7.6 yards per attempt as the Eastern Michigan starter last year. It’s unlikely they’ll replace Ridder’s senior year production, but it’s easy to forget how much he improved over the course of his Cincinnati career. Looking at his sophomore season, he resembled more of a game manager: 2,164 passing yards on 6.7 yards per attempt.
Cincinnati’s record that year? 11-3.
If we assume Prater or Bryant can replicate that season as a baseline, Fickell has proven he can lead this program to double digit wins with a lower ceiling at quarterback. I also think it’s possible whoever wins the quarterback job will perform beyond the “game manager” level, as they’ll have a talented skill position group at their disposal. In the running game, LSU transfer Corey Kiner was Ohio Mr. Football in 2020, and Ryan Montgomery averaged 6.8 yards/carry last year. Wide Receiver Tre Tucker also looks ready to step into a larger role.
They have a tricky Week 1 test at Arkansas, but I’d be surprised if they dropped more than 1 or 2 games in conference play.
It’s hard to project how an overhauled roster will produce when the chips are down, but Luke Fickell has proven to be a consistent winner at this program. Houston and UCF believe they can win the AAC this year, giving Cincinnati a few legitimate challengers to fend off in what should be an exciting conference race.
Pick #8: Utah (JI)
I’m a big believer in Utah this year. I want to be a believer. I think some of this competition comes down to who do we want to actually root for - and Utah is a team that I want to root for. Cameron Rising is a really damn good college quarterback. If Caleb Williams isn’t Player of the Year in the Pac-12 this year, it’ll be because Rising is.
Culture. Consistency. Development. Head coach Kyle Wittingham puts out teams year over year that you know are going to be tough and physical. They return 13 starters off the team that won the Pac-12 and went to the Rose Bowl last year. They physically dominated Oregon both times they played. The first time was unexpected at least to me, as someone who admittedly hasn’t followed west coast football as closely, but the second time was … ridiculous. And even though Ohio State had some players that opted out of the Rose Bowl, they fought and didn’t look out of place.
They play at Florida Week 1. One of my favorite games of the weekend. We’ll know if this team has the potential to make a run at the CFP if they handle business in that game against a team and a crowd that will be fired up to start the Billy Napier era. San Diego St. also isn’t a cake walk non-conference game but you’d expect them to handle business there. They also have road games at UCLA and Oregon, but I think they have an experience and talent advantage over the majority of the conference. I’d be shocked if they don’t win at least 9 games with the potential for that to be 11 or 12. Say Utah goes 11-1 but doesn’t make the playoffs - this is a team that’s going to go all out to win their bowl game after coming so close last year. Instead of being a lamb to the Alabama/UGA/Ohio State slaughter, they could be a favorite in another Rose Bowl.
Every win counts!
Pick #9: Texas A&M (DL)
Jimbo Fisher has generated a lot of hype around the Texas A&M program heading into this season, with a talented roster rivaling their elite SEC counterparts and a freshman class that ranked #1 in the country. There is a lot to like about this team, but there are questions they need to address if they’re going to contend for the SEC crown.
There are two components of this team that should be excellent: the running game and the pass defense. When watching Running Back Devon Achane, it’s easy to see why he’s also an All-American track star for A&M, with a game-breaking ability that rivals any player in the country. He was the 5th ranked Running Back in the country last year, per PFF, and will step into a larger role this year with Isaiah Spiller’s departure to the NFL.
The secondary is led by Cornerback Antonio Johnson, who used his large frame (6-foot-3, 200 lbs) to dominate the slot last year. As only a true sophomore, he rated as the 4th best Cornerback in the country, and is a potential top-10 draft pick in 2023. Rounding out the defensive backfield is Safety Demani Richardson, who had 6.5 tackles for loss last season, and Cornerback Tyreek Chappell, who played excellent as a true freshman. Joining this group in the front 7 is an assortment of former blue-chip recruits. On the defensive line alone, the incoming freshman class includes the #2, #9, #14, and #17 overall recruits. It’s easy to see why SP+ projects this to be the 6th best defense in the country, and their youth could be the only factor preventing them from reaching an even higher ceiling.
With a defense that could rival Alabama and Georgia, there’s only one component of this team that could hold them back from SEC contention: they need to figure out the Quarterback position. Haynes King won the job in a contentious battle with Max Johnson. King is a talented dual-threat who won the starter job in 2021, but lasted only 2 games before injury. His performance as a redshirt freshman was shaky in limited action: against Kent State, not exactly a beacon of college football excellence, he threw for 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. After his injury, the offense struggled to get off the ground behind Zach Calzada (who transferred to Auburn), leading to a disappointing 8-4 finish. They will be resigned to the same fate this year if they don’t get a higher level of Quarterback production.
They’ll be tested in non-conference play, with home games against Appalachian State (overlook them at your own peril) and a promising Miami team. And when conference play begins, it’s a typical SEC West gauntlet:
Home vs. Arkansas, Ole Miss, Florida, and LSU
Road games at Mississippi State, Alabama, and Auburn
If all the pieces click, there’s an outside chance they contend for the national title this season. If their QB performance is destructive there’s 7 or 8 win downside. I’ll hedge those two extremes and predict they finish 9-3, with a chance to get to double digits in a New Year’s Six bowl game.
Pick #10: Houston (JI)
I struggled a bit with where to go here but I think this is the right pick.
Houston has high expectations this year with Clayton Tune back under center. One of the best ‘mid-major’ college football players, he threw for 3500 yards and 30 TDs last year. Nathanial Dell, who was on the receiving end of the majority of that production (1329 yards, 12 touchdowns) also returns. Stud Running Back Alton McCaskill tore his ACL in spring ball which is a bummer; he’s a great kid, got to know him a little bit during the recruiting process, he tore it up last year as a freshman and has a really high ceiling. Maybe he’ll be able to return at some point, I’d consider it unlikely but you never really know these days.
But these guys are going to be good. They go to SMU. Avoid Cincinnati. Avoid UCF. Their non-conference schedule is at UTSA and at Texas Tech, with Rice and Kansas at home. They’ll be favored in 10 or so games this year, with high expectations as they prepare to head into the Big 12 moving forward. I think they’ll capitalize and have a big year. They’re a legitimate contender for the non power 5 automatic CFP bowl bid this year. And the ‘safest’ team left on the board for 10+ wins, with a potential conference championship. There’s also the ‘we went 11-2 and didn’t win our conference, which is shitty, so now we go play a 7-5 team in a bowl game that we’re way better than’ potential with Houston too ……… kind of like what happened last year.
Pick #11: Oregon (DL)
Barring a collapse from Oklahoma, I believe Oregon is the last team available in this draft that could win their conference this season. This program lacks the flash of the Chip Kelly era, but they’ve remained dependable in recent years in a weakened Pac-12 conference.
And if they lacked for entertainment in recent seasons, enter Bo Nix, the enigmatic but talented gunslinger. He showed questionable decision making habits at Auburn, but consistently faced a more difficult set of defenses than what he’ll see in the Pac-12. On the bright side, Nix will be sitting behind a really good offensive line returning many regulars from last season, including standout TJ Bass. Nix will rely on an inexperienced but talented group of receivers. Sophomores Troy Franklin (#41 recruit nationally) and Dont’e Thornton (#57 recruit nationally) are unproven but the ceiling for this group is high. The QB-to-WR connection will ultimately determine if this team can win the conference, but the remaining roster provides a high floor.
The defense must overcome the loss of star push rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux and a couple starting corners. Noah Sewell has the talent to be the best Linebacker in the country. He’s a dangerous blitzer who had 34 pressures and 4 sacks last year. Linebacker Justin Flowe was one of the most touted recruits in program history (#6 nationally in 2020), but has been bitten by the injury bug since he arrived on campus. If he’s 100% this season, there’s no Linebacker duo with more potential. The defensive line returns standouts Brandon Dorlus and Pop Aumavae, and they stole Cornerback Christian Gonzalez from Colorado to bolster their secondary.
This team will be tested right off the bat with a Week 1 matchup against Georgia in the Chick Fil-A Kickoff game. It would be improbable if they won, but it will be interesting to see if they can at least push Georgia physically with all the talent they have in the trenches. They host BYU in a pivotal non-conference game as well, but their conference schedule is favorable:
Home vs. UCLA, Washington and Utah
Rivalry game at Oregon State to end the regular season
First-year Head Coach Dan Lanning is only 36 years old, and will need some time to adjust to the position, but he certainly has the pieces to make a run at Pac-12 supremacy.
Pick #12: Notre Dame (JI)
Gosh they’re just so solid. Hard schedule. Question marks at the skill positions. Sounds like they’ve settled on Tyler Buchner being the guy at QB. They’ve recruited well. We knew what we were going to get under a Brian Kelly led team … they were going to win the games they were supposed to, maybe one or two they weren’t, maximize their potential and do it all again the next year. Remains to be seen what Marcus Freeman can do in that regard but there’s a lot of returning players that developed under that culture.
They have 4 pre-season All-Americans in Tight End Michael Mayer, Center Jarrett Patterson, Defensive End Isaiah Foskey and Safety Brandon Joseph, who transferred over from Northwestern. They’re preseason #5 in Bill Connelly’s SP+ projections. I just got a team with 4 preseason All-Americans and is top five in advanced metrics at pick #12!?
Look, they’re going to be good. They’re preseason top 10 for a reason. I don’t expect them to beat Ohio State. I do expect them to win the majority of the rest of their games. At BYU will be tough. At UNC will be sneaky. They get Clemson at home in November. At USC will be tough. Hard to see them doing worse than 9-3.
Pick #13: NC State (DL)
It’s crazy to think that NC State has never finished a college football season ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll. Fresh off a 9-3 finish last season with a roster returning the majority of its production, expectations have arguably never been higher for the Wolfpack. I’m not sure they can sneak into the top 10 this season, but they certainly can repeat last season’s success and push for the ACC Atlantic Division crown once again.
Their success last season was driven by the defense, which ranked 14th nationally. Stud Linebacker Drake Thomas is back to spearhead them. He has no real weakness in his game, finishing last season with 13.5 tackles for loss and 6 sacks as a pass rusher, while also ranking 9th as a run defender and 22nd in coverage grade, per PFF. The secondary is also in good hands, both on the outside with cornerback Shyheim Battle, and in the slot with Tyler Baker-Williams.
On offense, they lack explosiveness but are as solid as it gets behind Quarterback Devin Leary, who had 35 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions last year. There is turnover at the skill positions, with their 1-2 punch at Running Back gone, along with their leading receiver from last season. Their running game ranked 88th in per-play efficiency last year, so there’s the possibility for addition by subtraction there. In the passing game, look for slot receiver Thayer Thomas to thrive.
Winning the Atlantic division will be difficult, as they have to face Clemson on the road and UNC in Chapel Hill to end the regular season. Their Week 3 clash with Texas Tech is another game to keep an eye on.
In the modern college football world of non-stop turnover, it’s nice to see a team stick with continuity as their driving force, and I believe the Wolfpack will be rewarded this season. Once again, I expect 9 wins from this bunch, with the potential to get to double digits during bowl season.
Pick #14: Miami FL (JI)
I’m a big Tyler Van Dyke guy. He takes over… they lose to UVA by 2 where they miss a chippy FG. They lose by 3 to Carolina. They lose by 3 to FSU. They were 8 points away from ripping off 9 straight wins to end the year.
I’m a believer in Head coach Mario Cristobal. Their staff is incredibly impressive. Josh Gattis coming over from Michigan as Offensive Coordinator. Cristobal brought Alex Mirabal the offensive line savant with him over from Oregon. They have Charlie Strong, Kevin Steele, coaches from UGA, former and current coordinators, dudes loaded with experience all over the place. They said — we’re going to invest in alignment with our fan expectations and I fully expect it to pay off in the long run. Miami is going to be really really good in the future. I think they’re ACC championship caliber this year.
They play road games at Texas A&M and Clemson. They should be favored in every other game. They get Pitt and Carolina both at home and avoid NC State and Louisville. If they get to 9-3 (6-2), I’d expect them to be the Coastal representative in the ACC Championship game. If Clemson beats them at the end of November and has to play them again two weeks later in the ACC championship, there isn’t enough of a talent discrepancy that that it won’t be difficult on them to win that game twice. I think Miami is live to win the ACC this year.
Pick #15: Wisconsin (DL)
Wisconsin teams always have a similar formula: they run the ball well behind a future NFL back, they play elite defense, and they feature inconsistent-to-terrible Quarterback play (outside of Russell Wilson). Add it all together and it’s a formula that finds a way to 9+ wins every year. Even after a disastrous 1-3 start last year, they scraped their way to a 9-4 season. So what’s the 2022 outlook for Wisconsin?
They’re going to run the ball well behind a future NFL back.
Running back Braelon Allen was the bell cow for the team last year, with 12 rushing touchdowns on 6.8 yards per carry. And he was only a true freshman. He is well on his way to being the next great Wisconsin running back, and has Heisman-winning potential this season. One area of improvement for him is in the passing game, as he only had 8 total catches last season.
They’re going to play great defense.
They were the 2nd ranked defense in the country last season and led the Big Ten in pressure rate. With Edge Rusher Nick Herbig (9 sacks, 14 tackles for loss) and Nose Tackle Keeanu Benton back in the fold, they will have a great chance to repeat this performance in 2022. There’s turnover in the secondary, but Safety John Torchio is primed to step up after demonstrating big-time playmaking skills as a reserve last year. Cornerback Jay Shaw was also an impact transfer from UCLA.
They’re going to feature inconsistent-to-terrible Quarterback play.
Incumbent starter Graham Mertz’s 2021 stats are rough: 13 starts, 1,958 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 6.9 yards per attempt. A high turnover rate and a lack of downfield passing ability are never a great combination. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that his play was largely weighed down by a terrible start to the season. Over the final 9 games for the Badgers, when they finished 8-1, Mertz ranked 29th in Quarterback Rating nationally. New Offensive Coordinator Bobby Engram will look to add a spark to the passing game and help Mertz reach his ceiling.
Someone has to come out of the far inferior Big Ten West division, but the Badgers have difficult crossover road games at Ohio State and Michigan State. In their division, they play at Iowa, and host Purdue and Minnesota in their season-ending rivalry. I think the Badgers have what it takes to seize the division back, and a Rose Bowl appearance is possible if they can steal a few games on the road.
Pick #16: Baylor (JI)
This entire conference is a struggle for me. I’ll go with Baylor.
Defending Big 12 champions. They return 14 starters off last year’s team highlighted by monster interior Defensive Lineman Siaki Ika. He’ll likely be a first round pick next year. Gerry Bohanon was their starting QB last year, he actually lost the job to Blake Shapen in the spring. That’s typically a good sign if a younger QB beats out an incumbent from a team that just won 12 games and the conference title the year before.
At BYU in Week 2 is going to be a really difficult game. I had them lower on my list than some mostly due to a potential non-conference slip up and then I just think the middle of the Big 12 is going to beat up on each other this year. But I have to pick someone. There’s a lot of good not great teams. 7/8/9 wins feels right, I just don’t have a feel for which end of that spectrum it lands on, and the more difficult non-conference game is partially why I was willing to wait and see if you’d take them before me.
I can’t say I feel great about this, but Baylor has as good a shot as any to win the league this year. This is still a team with the second most returning starters in the league coming off a 12-win season.
Pick #17: Southern Cal (DL)
I think this is a great spot to select the highest variance team in college football this year. The Trojans have the 5th highest pre-season odds to win the national championship, which seems a little absurd! But the excitement isn’t misplaced. Lincoln Riley has arrived, and he’s bringing a loaded crew with him. On offense alone they secured the following transfers:
Quarterback Caleb Williams, who was fantastic after taking over for Spencer Rattler at Oklahoma last year. In 11 starts as a true freshman, he threw for almost 2,000 yards with 21 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, on an excellent 9.1 yards per attempt. He even added over 400 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground for good measure.
Wide Receiver Jordan Addison, fresh off a casual 1,600 yard, 18 touchdown season that fueled Pittsburgh to an ACC title.
Wide Receiver Mario Williams, who has major breakout potential as a former top-50 recruit who was effective when seeing the field as a freshman for Oklahoma.
Running Back Travis Dye, who has 1,673 all-purpose yards and 18 touchdowns for conference rival Oregon last year.
All of this skill position talent will play behind an offensive line that ranked 9th in sack rate allowed last year and is set to start four seniors. Left Tackle Andrew Vorhees is one of the best lineman in the sport. Somehow, SP+ only projects them to have the 30th ranked offense in the country. My guess is they’ll rank closer to 5th than 30th.
So why do I doubt that they can contend for a national title? The defense has work to do. And I mean a LOT of work to do. They ranked 108th in the country in defensive efficiency last year. Riley is addressing this by bringing along Defensive Coordinator Alex Grinch from Oklahoma, and hitting the transfer market relentlessly. The defense will be full of new faces, including Lineback Eric Gentry (Arizona State transfer) and Cornerback Mekhi Blackmon (Colorado transfer). These additions will need to complement what could be a dangerous front line, led by Defensive Tackle Tuli Tuipulotu and sophomore Edge Rusher Korey Foreman (the #2 overall recruit in 2021). I think the defense can take a major step forward towards being a top-50 unit, with an even higher upside if they wreak havoc on the D-Line.
They’re projected to play the 53rd most difficult schedule in the country. They will need to survive a key slate in the 2nd half of the season with road games at Utah and UCLA, and a season-ending home game vs. Notre Dame.
It’s likely too optimistic to expect the mammoth jump on defense that will be required to make them true contenders, but their elite offense will make them appointment viewing as they try to get back into Pac-12 contention.
Pick #18: Texas (JI)
I just spent about 3 minutes debating whether I should take Texas or Oklahoma State with my second Big 12 pick. Let’s hope I didn’t screw it up.
An enigma. That’s what I have to say about Texas. They’re loaded at the skill positions. They’ve recruited well on paper. They’ve done that a lot over the last decade though, with up and down results. We know that Bijan Robinson is really good. He’s… he’s fantastic. If the best RB in the country isn’t Tre Henderson I think it’s him. Quinn Ewers has all the recruiting accolades and just won the job officially. We’ll see how he does this year. Ewers’ performance is high on my list of things I’m most interested to see nationally. Wide Receiver Xavier Worthy is a special talent. Unfortunately they just lost Wyoming transfer Isaiah Neyor for the season, he was expected to start and have a big role. But I think they have enough talent at WR to make up for it. Jordan Whittington is good. Agiye Hall was a highly touted kid that flashed in the national title game last year, Alabama’s 2s and 3s at WR are typically pretty damn good. Plus with Steve Sarkisian running the offense, I’m not worried about their ability to score points.
I feel like it comes down to pressure and expectations a lot here. Texas is the kind of place where it feels as if the longer they go without winning, the more difficult of a burden it becomes. They’re now led by a hometown quarterback with as much recruiting pedigree as you can ask for and a legitimate Heisman candidate beside him in the backfield. Fans aren’t going to just be satisfied with marginal improvement over their 5-7 record last year, they’re going to want 8, 9, 10+ wins.
They have a guaranteed loss against Alabama. They play at Oklahoma State and at Kansas State. They get Baylor and TCU at home though which helps. SP+ has them projected for 7.5 wins but looking at their schedule, I’m more inclined to think this is an 8-9 win team. With the potential for more if Ewers is who they say he is. Can they handle expectations? Can they win the games they’re supposed to?
I’m betting on Texas’ upside over the safety of Oklahoma State.
At this point, three teams have been taken from each conference. Here are the remaining teams that we chose to round out our rosters…
ACC: Pitt (DL)
The final ACC slot is a difficult pick to sort through. Clemson is the national title contender. NC State is a steady, high floor team. And Miami is the potential breakout team. Then there are a bunch of teams that I could see going anywhere from 5-7 to 9-3. Of that bunch, I feel the safest going with the reigning conference champs, the Pitt Panthers. I considered UNC here as well, but I don’t feel that they improved their 99th ranked defense from last season enough.
There’s not many teams, if any, that lost more than Pitt with the combination of Kenny Pickett’s departure to the NFL, and Jordan Addison’s transfer to USC. However, there’s still enough pieces on this roster to win an up-for-grabs ACC Coastal division. While it doesn’t offset the loss of Addison, they at least stole back from USC, taking last year’s starter Kedon Slovis to replace Pickett. Slovis has regressed since a phenomenal freshman season, but he should be a solid replacement. He’ll have a good group of weapons to throw to in Wide Receivers Jared Wayne and Konata Mumpfield (Akron transfer), and Tight End Gavin Bartholomew. Their offensive line also returns every starter from last season, giving this offense a stable floor.
I’m bullish on a defense that ranked 23rd in the country last season, behind an always feisty pass rush. They’ll once again have the horses this season with the returning duo of Calija Kancey (7 sacks and 13 tackles for loss) and Habakkuk Baldonado (9 sacks). They also return Cornerback Marquis Williams, who has performed at a high level on the outside the past 2 seasons.
My hesitation with selecting Pitt was largely around their schedule, with immediate non-conference tests against West Virginia and Tennessee, but both games are at home. Repeating as division champs will be difficult, as they play both of their primary challengers, Miami and North Carolina, on the road.
Despite concerns about a drop-off on offense, this should be a solid team. Head coach Phil Narduzzi will have an opportunity to show that the leap this program made last year was no fluke, and that they plan to remain ACC contenders in the years to come.
Big 12: Oklahoma State (DL)
The Big 12 is a hard conference to get a read on. The usual major favorite, Oklahoma, has a ton of turnover across their staff and personnel to deal with. Reigning champ Baylor seems to swing between 2 and 12 wins every other year. Texas is…well, Texas. No one in this conference outside of Oklahoma is more consistent year to year than the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
The big storyline around this team is the loss of Defensive Coordinator Jim Knowles, who takes his stewardship to Ohio State. The team will feel that loss after he guided them to the 4th best defensive ranking in the country last year. But SP+ still projects a top 25 unit because of the talent that stuck around. Tyler Lacy, Collin Oliver, and Brock Martin form an elite defensive line, with 23 sacks and 41 tackles for loss between the 3 of them last season. Regression is still likely on defense, as they lost their star linebacker and 4 of their top 5 defensive backs, but an elite pass rush solves a lot of problems. I won’t be surprised if they end up being one of the 10 to 15 best defensive units in the country.
The ceiling of this team will be determined by the offense. Quarterback Spencer Sanders once again leads an offense that ranked 28th in passing efficiency last season. He’s turnover-prone, but ultimately performed at a top-20 level amongst Power Five QBs last year. He’ll be working with a young, inexperienced receiving corp, so a drop-off in performance wouldn’t be shocking for Sanders. The running game was also non-existent last year, ranking 116th in efficiency.
The non-conference schedule should be straightforward, but conference play looks to be tilted against them a bit. They play road games at Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma, but host Texas.
Even with a decent offense, this team will be competitive in 2022, as it always is under Mike Gundy. Gundy’s teams have always had a high floor, but they’ve also mixed in 11 or 12 win seasons pretty consistently throughout his tenure. I think this season is trending towards the floor-side of things, but that’s still the best value left on the table in this whacky conference.
AAC/IND: Central Florida (DL)
I’m thrilled to get one of the most successful programs in college football over the last 5 years with one of my last picks! While they’ve yet to re-create the Scott Frost glory years under Gus Malzahn, he’s kept the program afloat with a 9-4 finish last season. And unlike conference rival Cincinnati, they return a lot of production from last year’s team and will look to play spoiler in the AAC race, if not outright challenge for the throne.
This team did two things really well last year.
Their pass defense ranked 19th in the country on a per-play efficiency basis, behind lockdown corners Davonte Brown and Corey Thornton.
They ran the ball effectively, ranking 11th in per-play efficiency. The good news is their lead rushing trio returns from last season: Johnny Richardson, Isaiah Bowser, and Mark-Antony Richards.
The uncertainty will come from the Quarterback position, with an ongoing battle between John Rhys Plumlee and Mikey Keene. Malzhan was recently quoted saying the competition is “as even as it gets”. Neither player brings the downfield passing ability that now Oklahoma starter Dillon Gabriel gave the team last year prior to injury, but Keene played in 11 games during a 9-win campaign, so we know they’re capable of winning games without stellar passing production.
AAC schedules are mighty nice to lock in for a wins pool competition, with UCF projected to face the 108th most difficult slate of teams in the country. Louisville will be an interesting non-conference test at home in Week 2. They get Cincy in their building as well in the 2nd half of the season.
While they project as the 3rd best team in their conference, there’s sleeper potential with this team. I can guarantee one thing this season: John and I will be watching a lot more AAC action, in what looks set to be a compelling conference race.
Big Ten: Michigan State (JI)
I hate this pick. I hate all these secondary teams in the Big Ten. I panicked and went with Michigan State.
They play at Washington in the non-conference play and should handle it. Nothing else too scary besides that. They’re old. Experienced. They added in the portal again at RB and at all three levels on defense. They won’t fully replace what Kenneth Walker did for them last year in the run game, but between Wisconsin transfer Jalen Berger and Colorado transfer Jarek Broussard they have talent at the position. It’s a coin flip between them, Penn State and Minnesota for me. They get both difficult crossover games (Wisconsin // Minnesota) at home this year.
But you know why ultimately I went with them? Because fuck Penn State. I don’t want to root for them. And I don’t want to root for boring ass Minnesota either. So give me the Spartan Dawgs.
PAC-12: UCLA (JI)
They have an incredibly easy non-conference schedule. Bowling Green, Alabama State, South Alabama all at home. They get Utah and USC at home. This is a schedule that’s set up for Chip Kelly to have the most success he’s had since he’s been at UCLA.
This was a pretty good team last year. I think because they’re out on the west coast and they had some struggles early in Kelly’s tenure, plus they haven’t recruited elite elite classes, there’s a perception that they’ve struggled. There’s been some tension, don’t get me wrong, but this is a good team that’s been built up the right way.
Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is still there. Running Back Zach Charbonnet is still there. They’re starting 5 seniors on the offensive line. They finished 12th in SP+ on offense last year and went 8-4. I expect similar this year. I feel more confident in the full package here, schedule, experience, talent, then I do at USC … At least that’s what I’m telling myself now that I have them on my side.
SEC: Ole Miss (JI)
How well does Jaxson Dart or Luke Altmyer play? Comes down to that. I’ll side with Lane Kiffin getting the best out of a QB. They got Zach Evans to transfer from TCU - he’s awesome. They got Jaylon Robinson to transfer from UCF - He’s awesome. Jonathan Mingo is still there. Malik Heath, who was a productive player at times for Mississippi State, moved across the state to Ole Miss, which is wild. He was the guy heavily involved in that ... tussle … at the end of the bowl game v. Tulsa a few years back. They’re going to score if they get good QB play which I’d bet they will. Both of those guys were VERY highly regarded prospects.
This came down to Kentucky, Tennessee and Ole Miss for me in this spot. This was another conference that I really wanted to knock out before having to pick last, unfortunately I wasn’t able to do that:
I like their schedule the best among all the mid-tier SEC teams.
I like that they get Vanderbilt as a cross-over opponent.
I like that a lot of their perceived 50/50 games, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, are all at home.
Plus Dave, you know what else I like? That I get to root for LANE KIFFIN! Lane Train baby! LFGO! Bring me home!!
That’s a wrap! For those that made it to the bottom, we appreciate you THE MOST! If you subscribe, additional content will send straight to your email inbox as the season progresses. FOOTBALL IS BACK BABY!!